杭州西湖水质预测方法和结果分析

本文利用二维对流扩散模型对西湖水质总磷浓度进行预测,给出方程的理论基础,编制FORTRAN77程序,在386微机上实现预测,并对预测结果作了较为详细的分析．本模型对水质环境防治决策具有实际意义．     

Variability in the distribution and abundance of stream salmonids, and the associated use of habitat models

The effective management of salmonid fisheries requires that the factors influencing variation in the abundance of stream populations are understood. The use of habitat models to explain the spatial component of population variance offers potential for management, but has not previously been set in the context of long term variation in population abundance because of the lack of suitable data sets. This paper examines contributions of spatial and temporal factors lo fish density variance using a 10-year data set from five tributaries of the River Conwy, North Wales. Recently developed habitat models were applied to the data to test their ability to explain nominal spatial variance. Spatial variance accounted for between 21 and 62% of the overall variance of salmonid abundance, and habitat models explained up to 95% of the spatial variance component. Synchrony in population variation amongst sites within and between tributaries is described, and some of the factors that may influence this are discussed.     

Heterogeneous Na+ Sensitivity of Na+,K+-ATPase Isoenzymes in Whole Brain Membranes

Abstract: The Na⁺ sensitivity of whole brain membrane Na⁺,K⁺-ATPase isoenzymes was studied using the differential inhibitory effect of ouabain (α1, low affinity for ouabain; α2, high affinity; and α3, very high affinity). At 100 m M Na⁺, we found that the proportion of isoforms with low, high, and very high ouabain affinity was 21, 38, and 41%, respectively. Using two ouabain concentrations (10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁷ M ), we were able to discriminate Na⁺ sensitivity of Na⁺, K⁺-ATPase isoenzymes using nonlinear regression. The ouabain low-affinity isoform, α1, exhibited high Na⁺ sensitivity [ K _a of 3.88 ± 0.25 m M Na⁺ and a Hill coefficient ( n ) of 1.98 ± 0.13]; the ouabain high-affinity isoform, α2, had two Na⁺ sensitivities, a high ( K _a of 4.98 ± 0.2 m M Na⁺ and n of 1.34 ± 0.10) and a low ( K _a of 28 ± 0.5 m M Na⁺ and an n of 1.92 ± 0.18) Na⁺ sensitivity activated above a thresh old (22 ± 0.3 m M Na⁺); and the ouabain very-high-affinity isoform, α3, was resolved by two processes and appears to have two Na⁺ sensitivities (apparent K _a values of 3.5 and 20 m M Na⁺). We show that Na⁺ dependence in the absence of ouabain is the result of at least of five Na⁺ reactivities. This molecular functional characteristic of isoenzymes in membranes could explain the diversity of physiological roles attributed to isoenzymes.     

The decline of tree diversity on newly isolated tropical islands: A test of a null hypothesis and some implications

Summary Six islands, each less than a hectare in area, were isolated in about 1913 from the mainland of central Panamá by the rising waters of Gatun Lake. By 1980, the diversity of trees on all but one of these islands was far lower than on mainland plots of comparable size. A restricted subset of tree species has spread on these islands, notablyProtium panamense, Scheelea zonensis, Oenocarpus panamanus andSwartzia simplex. We constructed a null model to predict how chance would change tree diversity and the similarity of tree species compositions of different islands, assuming that each mature tree has equal chances of dying and/or reproducing, regardless of its species. This model cannot account for the diminished diversity of the changes in vegetation on these islands: some factors must be favoring a particular set of tree species.Two factors, exposure to wind and absence of mammals, seem needed to bring about the vegetation changes observed on these small islands. Their vegetation shows many signs of wind damage and of adaptation to resist wind, reflecting its exposure to dry season winds and storm winds sweeping across the lake from the west. Their most common tree species appear to have spread because mammals rarely visit these small and isolated islands. Seed of these common species are normally much eaten by mammals and do not need burial by mammals to escape insect attack.A thorough grasp of plant—animal interactions is needed to understand the events that have taken place on these islands. Identifying those keystone animals essential for maintaining plant diversity is a necessary element of reserve design and forest management in the tropics.The US government has the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright covering this paper.     

Large old trees increase growth under shifting climatic constraints: Aligning tree longevity and individual growth dynamics in primary mountain spruce forests

In a world of accelerating changes in environmental conditions driving tree growth, tradeoffs between tree growth rate and longevity could curtail the abundance of large old trees (LOTs), with potentially dire consequences for biodiversity and carbon storage. However, the influence of tree-level tradeoffs on forest structure at landscape scales will also depend on disturbances, which shape tree size and age distribution, and on whether LOTs can benefit from improved growing conditions due to climate warming. We analyzed temporal and spatial variation in radial growth patterns from ~5000 Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] H. Karst) live and dead trees from the Western Carpathian primary spruce forest stands. We applied mixed-linear modeling to quantify the importance of LOT growth histories and stand dynamics (i.e., competition and disturbance factors) on lifespan. Finally, we assessed regional synchronization in radial growth variability over the 20th century, and modeled the effects of stand dynamics and climate on LOTs recent growth trends. Tree age varied considerably among forest stands, implying an important role of disturbance as an age constraint. Slow juvenile growth and longer period of suppressed growth prolonged tree lifespan, while increasing disturbance severity and shorter time since last disturbance decreased it. The highest age was not achieved only by trees with continuous slow growth, but those with slow juvenile growth followed by subsequent growth releases. Growth trend analysis demonstrated an increase in absolute growth rates in response to climate warming, with late summer temperatures driving the recent growth trend. Contrary to our expectation that LOTs would eventually exhibit declining growth rates, the oldest LOTs (>400 years) continuously increase growth throughout their lives, indicating a high phenotypic plasticity of LOTs for increasing biomass, and a strong carbon sink role of primary spruce forests under rising temperatures, intensifying droughts, and increasing bark beetle outbreaks.     

Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species

Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO₂ emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.     

Change in climatically suitable breeding distributions reduces hybridization potential between Vermivora warblers

Aim

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and subsequent biotic interactions, including hybridization potential. The imperiled Golden-winged Warbler (GWWA) competes and hybridizes with the Blue-winged Warbler (BWWA), which may threaten the persistence of GWWA due to introgression. We examined how climate change is likely to alter the breeding distributions and potential for hybridization between GWWA and BWWA.

Location

North America.

Methods

We used GWWA and BWWA occurrence data to model climatically suitable conditions under historical and future climate scenarios. Models were parameterized with 13 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables. Using ensemble modeling, we estimated historical and modern distributions, as well as a projected distribution under six future climate scenarios. We quantified breeding distribution area, the position of and amount of overlap between GWWA and BWWA distributions under each climate scenario. We summarized the top explanatory variables in our model to predict environmental parameters of the distributions under future climate scenarios relative to historical climate.

Results

GWWA and BWWA distributions are projected to substantially change under future climate scenarios. GWWA are projected to undergo the greatest change; the area of climatically suitable breeding season conditions is expected to shift north to northwest; and range contraction is predicted in five out of six future climate scenarios. Climatically suitable conditions for BWWA decreased in four of the six future climate scenarios, while the distribution is projected to shift east. A reduction in overlapping distributions for GWWA and BWWA is projected under all six future climate scenarios.

Main Conclusions

Climate change is expected to substantially alter the area of climatically suitable conditions for GWWA and BWWA, with the southern portion of the current breeding ranges likely to become climatically unsuitable. However, interactions between BWWA and GWWA are expected to decline with the decrease in overlapping habitat, which may reduce the risk of genetic introgression.     

Predator response to the coloured eyespots and defensive posture of Colombian four-eyed frogs

Deimatic displays, where sudden changes in prey appearance elicit aversive predator reactions, have been suggested to occur in many taxa. These (often only putative) displays frequently involve different components that may also serve antipredator functions via other mechanisms (e.g., mimicry, warning signalling, body inflation). The Colombian four-eyed frog, Pleurodema brachyops, has been suggested to gain protection against predation through putative deimatic displays where they inflate and elevate the posterior part of their body revealing eye-like colour markings. We exposed stationary artificial frogs to wild predators to test whether the two components (eyespot/colour markings, defensive posture) of their putative deimatic display, and their combination, provide protection from predation without the sudden change in appearance. We did not detect any obvious additive effect of defensive posture and eyespots/colour markings on predation risk, but found a marginally significant trend for model frogs in the resting posture to be less attacked when displaying eyespots/colour markings than when they were not, suggesting that the presence of colour markings/eyespots may provide some protection on its own. Additionally, we found that models in a resting posture were overall more frequently attacked on the head than models in a defensive posture, indicating that a defensive posture alone could help redirect predator attacks to non-vital parts of the body. The trends found in our study suggest that the different components of P. brachyops' coloration may serve different functions during a deimatic display, but further research is needed to elucidate the role of each component when accompanied by sudden prey movement.     

The protective value of the colour and shape of the mountain katydid's antipredator defence

Deimatic behaviour is performed by prey when attacked by predators as part of an antipredator strategy. The behaviour is part of a sequence that consists of several defences, for example they can be preceded by camouflage and followed by a hidden putatively aposematic signal that is only revealed when the deimatic behaviour is performed. When displaying their hidden signal, mountain katydids (Acripeza reticulata) hold their wings vertically, exposing striking red and black stripes with blue spots and oozing an alkaloid-rich chemical defence derived from its Senecio diet. Understanding differences and interactions between deimatism and aposematism has proven problematic, so in this study we isolated the putative aposematic signal of the mountain katydid's antipredator strategy to measure its survival value in the absence of their deimatic behaviour. We manipulated two aspects of the mountain katydid's signal, colour pattern and whole body shape during display. We deployed five kinds of clay models, one negative control and four katydid-like treatments, in 15 grids across part of the mountain katydid's distribution to test the hypothesis that their hidden signal is aposematic. If this hypothesis holds true, we expected that the models, which most closely resembled real katydids would be attacked the least. Instead, we found that models that most closely resembled real katydids were the most likely to be attacked. We suggest several ideas to explain these results, including that the deimatic phase of the katydid's display, the change from a camouflaged state to exposing its hidden signal, may have important protective value.     

Principles of nonlinear regression modeling

Summary Five principles govern the selection of nonlinear regression models for bacterial growth. Examples are given of the various ways in which researchers have approached the problems of nonlinear regression modeling together with some discussion of linear modeling.Reference to a brand or firm name does not constitute endorsement by the US Department of Agriculture over others of a similar nature not mentioned.