Evolutionary analysis of life span, competition, and adaptive radiation, motivated by the Pacific rockfishes (Sebastes)

The Pacific rockfishes (Sebastes spp) are remarkable for both their diversity (on the order of 100 species) and range of maximum life span ( approximately 10 years for Calico rockfish to approximately 200 years for Rougheye rockfish). We describe the natural history and patterns of diversity and life span in these species and then use independent contrasts to explore correlates of these. When phylogenetic history is taken into account, maximum life span is explained by age at maturity, size at maturity, and the interaction of these two. We introduce a life-history model that allows insight into the origin of these correlations. We then describe a variety of mechanisms that may increase lifepans and diversity. These include fluctuating environments (in which organisms basically have to "wait out" bad periods to reproduce successfully), diversity, and longevity inspired by interspecific competition and physiological complexity in growth and accumulation of cellular damage. All of the results point toward the importance of flat or "indifferent" fitness surfaces as a key element in the evolution of diversity. We conclude that further development of the theory of flat or indifferent fitness surfaces as applied to diversity and life span is clearly warranted.     

Quantifying personal exposure to air pollution from smartphone‐based location data

Personal exposure assessment is a challenging task that requires both measurements of the state of the environment as well as the individual's movements. In this paper, we show how location data collected by smartphone applications can be exploited to quantify the personal exposure of a large group of people to air pollution. A Bayesian approach that blends air quality monitoring data with individual location data is proposed to assess the individual exposure over time, under uncertainty of both the pollutant level and the individual location. A comparison with personal exposure obtained assuming fixed locations for the individuals is also provided. Location data collected by the Earthquake Network research project are employed to quantify the dynamic personal exposure to fine particulate matter of around 2500 people living in Santiago (Chile) over a 4‐month period. For around 30% of individuals, the personal exposure based on people movements emerges significantly different over the static exposure. On the basis of this result and thanks to a simulation study, we claim that even when the individual location is known with nonnegligible error, this helps to better assess personal exposure to air pollution. The approach is flexible and can be adopted to quantify the personal exposure based on any location‐aware smartphone application.     

Estimating population structure from AFLP amplification intensity

In the last decade, amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) have become one of the most widely used molecular markers to study the genetic structure of natural populations. Most of the statistical methods available to study the genetic structure of populations using AFLPs consider these markers as dominant and are thus unable to distinguish between individuals being heterozygous or homozygous for the dominant allele. Some attempts have been made to treat AFLPs as codominant markers by using AFLP band intensities to infer the most likely genotype of each individual. These two approaches have some drawbacks, the former discarding potentially valuable information and the latter being sometimes unable to correctly assign genotypes to individuals. In this study, we propose an alternative likelihood‐based approach, which does not attempt at inferring the genotype of each individual, but rather incorporate the uncertainty about genotypes into a Bayesian framework leading to the estimation of population‐specific F_IS and F_ST coefficients. We show with simulations that the accuracy of our method is much higher than one using AFLP as dominant markers and is generally close to what would be obtained by using the same number of Single‐Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) markers. The method is applied to a data set of four populations of the common vole (Microtus arvalis) from Grisons in Switzerland, for which we obtained 562 polymorphic AFLP markers. Our approach is very general and has the potential to make AFLP markers as useful as SNP data for nonmodel species.     

Multiple imputation for multivariate data with missing and below-threshold measurements: time-series concentrations of pollutants in the Arctic

Many chemical and environmental data sets are complicated by the existence of fully missing values or censored values known to lie below detection thresholds. For example, week-long samples of airborne particulate matter were obtained at Alert, NWT, Canada, between 1980 and 1991, where some of the concentrations of 24 particulate constituents were coarsened in the sense of being either fully missing or below detection limits. To facilitate scientific analysis, it is appealing to create complete data by filling in missing values so that standard complete-data methods can be applied. We briefly review commonly used strategies for handling missing values and focus on the multiple-imputation approach, which generally leads to valid inferences when faced with missing data. Three statistical models are developed for multiply imputing the missing values of airborne particulate matter. We expect that these models are useful for creating multiple imputations in a variety of incomplete multivariate time series data sets.     

An exact test for the association between the disease and alleles at highly polymorphic loci with particular interest in the haplotype analysis

The association analysis between the disease and genetic alleles is one of the simple methods for localizing the susceptibility locus in the genes. For revealing the association, several statistical tests have been proposed without discussing explicitly the alternative hypotheses. We therefore specify two types of alternative hypotheses (i.e., there is only one susceptibility allele in the locus, and there is an extension or shortening of alleles associated with the disease) and derive exact tests for the respective hypotheses. We also propose to combine these two tests when the prior knowledge is not sufficient enough to specify one of these two hypotheses. In particular, these ideas are extended to the haplotype analysis of three-way association between the disease and bivariate allele frequencies at two closely linked loci. As a by-product, a factorization of the probability distribution of the three-way cell frequencies under the null hypothesis of no three-way interaction is obtained.     

A study of deleterious gene structure in plants using Markov chain Monte Carlo

The characteristics of deleterious genes have been of great interest in both theory and practice in genetics. Because of the complex genetic mechanism of these deleterious genes, most current studies try to estimate the overall magnitude of mortality effects on a population, which is characterized classically by the number of lethal equivalents. This number is a combination of several parameters, each of which has a distinct biological effect on genetic mortality. In conservation and breeding programs, it is important to be able to distinguish among different combinations of these parameters that lead to the same number of lethal equivalents, such as a large number of mildly deleterious genes or a few lethal genes, The ability to distinguish such parameter combinations requires more than one generation of mating. We propose a model for survival data from a two-generation mating experiment on the plant species Brassica rapa, and we enable inference with Markov chain Monte Carlo. This computational strategy is effective because a vast amount of missing genotype information must be accounted for. In addition to the lethal equivalents, the two-generation data provide separate information on the average intensity of mortality and the average number of deleterious genes carried by an individual. In our Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, we use a vector proposal distribution to overcome inefficiency of a single-site Gibbs sampler. Information about environmental effects is obtained from an outcrossing experiment conducted in parallel with the two-generation mating experiments.     

A hierarchical Bayesian model to predict the duration of immunity to Haemophilus influenzae type b

A hierarchical Bayesian regression model is fitted to longitudinal data on Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) serum antibodies. To estimate the decline rate of the antibody concentration, the model accommodates the possibility of unobserved subclinical infections with Hib bacteria that cause increasing concentrations during the study period. The computations rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation of the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters. The model is used to predict the duration of immunity to subclinical Hib infection and to a serious invasive Hib disease.     

Respiratory Chains in the Last Common Ancestor of Living Organisms

Sequences in current databases show that a number of proteins involved in respiratory processes are homologous in archaeal and bacterial species. In particular, terminal oxidases belonging to oxygen, nitrate, sulfate, and sulfur respiratory pathways have been sequenced in members of both domains. They include cytochrome oxidase, nitrate reductase, adenylylsulfate reductase, sulfite reductase, and polysulfide reductase. These proteins can be assigned to the last common ancestor of living organisms assuming that the deepest split of the three domains of life occurred between Archaea and Bacteria and that they were not acquired through lateral gene transfer by one of these domains. These molecular data indicate that several of the most important respiratory pathways arose early in evolution and that the last common ancestor of living organisms was not a simple organism in its energetic metabolism. Rather, it may have been able to gain energy by means of at least four electron transport chains, and therefore it may have been prepared to face a wide range of environmental conditions.