Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar

Aim Techniques that predict species potential distributions by combining observed occurrence records with environmental variables show much potential for application across a range of biogeographical analyses. Some of the most promising applications relate to species for which occurrence records are scarce, due to cryptic habits, locally restricted distributions or low sampling effort. However, the minimum sample sizes required to yield useful predictions remain difficult to determine. Here we developed and tested a novel jackknife validation approach to assess the ability to predict species occurrence when fewer than 25 occurrence records are available. Location Madagascar. Methods Models were developed and evaluated for 13 species of secretive leaf‐tailed geckos (Uroplatus spp.) that are endemic to Madagascar, for which available sample sizes range from 4 to 23 occurrence localities (at 1 km² grid resolution). Predictions were based on 20 environmental data layers and were generated using two modelling approaches: a method based on the principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) and a genetic algorithm (GARP). Results We found high success rates and statistical significance in jackknife tests with sample sizes as low as five when the Maxent model was applied. Results for GARP at very low sample sizes (less than c. 10) were less good. When sample sizes were experimentally reduced for those species with the most records, variability among predictions using different combinations of localities demonstrated that models were greatly influenced by exactly which observations were included. Main conclusions We emphasize that models developed using this approach with small sample sizes should be interpreted as identifying regions that have similar environmental conditions to where the species is known to occur, and not as predicting actual limits to the range of a species. The jackknife validation approach proposed here enables assessment of the predictive ability of models built using very small sample sizes, although use of this test with larger sample sizes may lead to overoptimistic estimates of predictive power. Our analyses demonstrate that geographical predictions developed from small numbers of occurrence records may be of great value, for example in targeting field surveys to accelerate the discovery of unknown populations and species.     

A new species of shrew tenrec (Microgale jobihely) from northern Madagascar

A new species of shrew tenrec in the genus Microgale is described from a series of 12 specimens taken on the south-western slopes of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar and is named Microgale jobihely . This new species is distinguished from other named members of this endemic genus by a variety of mensural and discrete morphological characters. Phylogenetic analysis of the mitochondrial ND2 gene supports its recognition as a distinct species and suggests a sister relationship with the much more widespread Microgale cowani . Microgale jobihely appears to be the only member of this genus that is a very localized endemic, and a biogeographic scenario is presented to explain this observation. It is currently known from a small area of forest, outside of the protected areas system, that is faced with considerable anthropogenic pressure.     

Syrrhopodon cuneifolius Thér. (Calymperaceae), a good species endemic to Madagascar,with notes on S. leprieurii Mont. from the American tropics

Syrrhopodon cuneifolius Thér. is lectotypified and confirmed as a good species, endemic to Madagascar. The features distinguishing it from the superficially similar Syrrhopodon leprieurii Mont., and morphological variation in the latter are discussed. In contrast to the leaves in S. leprieurii, those in S. cuneifolius generally lack large spines, possess a costa with a ventral cortex of small pluripapillose cells, and have a marginal stereome that fails short of the leaf apex. Consideration is given to removing Syrrhopodon recurvulus Mitt. from synonymy with S. leprieurii and placing it in synonymy with Syrrhopodon gaudichaudii Mont.     

Differential mortalities of dengue-infected Aedes aegypti: preliminary results

Two ecotypes of Aedes aegypti, Ae. ae. aegypti and Ae. ae. formosus, were experimentally infected with a dengue 2 virus to test (1) the inheritance of susceptibility, and (2) the impact of infection on survival and reproduction. Ae. ae. aegypti, the main vector involved in dengue epidemics, displayed higher mortalities than Ae. ae. formosus, the ancestral form, which is a forest-dwelling, less anthropophilic species confined to Africa. Differential mortalities were observed between females with disseminated infection and females without disseminated infection. Ae. ae. formosus females with disseminated infection showed an increase in survival rate and reproduction success. These results are discussed in the light of changes in resource allocation that may occur in infected females.     

Mitochondrial introgressive hybridization following a demographic expansion in the tomato frogs of Madagascar,genus Dyscophus

Madagascar is a biodiversity hotspot with a unique fauna and flora largely endemic at the species level and highly threatened by habitat destruction. The processes underlying population‐level differentiation in Madagascar's biota are poorly understood and have been proposed to be related to Pleistocene climatic cycles, yet the levels of genetic divergence observed are often suggestive of ancient events. We combined molecular markers of different variability to assess the phylogeography of Madagascar's emblematic tomato frogs (Dyscophus guineti and D. antongilii) and interpret the observed pattern as resulting from ancient and recent processes. Our results suggest that the initial divergence between these taxa is probably old as reflected by protein‐coding nuclear genes and by a strong mitochondrial differentiation of the southernmost population. Dramatic changes in their demography appear to have been triggered by the end of the last glacial period and possibly by the short return of glacial conditions known as the 8K event. This dramatic change resulted in an approximately 50‐fold reduction of the effective population size in various populations of both species. We hypothesize these species' current mitochondrial DNA diversity distribution reflects a swamping of the mitochondrial genetic diversity of D. guineti by that of D. antongilii previous to the populations' bottlenecks during the Holocene, and probably as a consequence of D. antongilii demographic expansion approximately 1 million years ago. Our data support the continued recognition of D. antongilii and D. guineti as separate species and flag D. guineti as the more vulnerable species to past and probably also future environmental changes.     

Palaeo-precipitation is a major determinant of palm species richness patterns across Madagascar: a tropical biodiversity hotspot

The distribution of rainforest in many regions across the Earth was strongly affected by Pleistocene ice ages. However, the extent to which these dynamics are still important for modern-day biodiversity patterns within tropical biodiversity hotspots has not been assessed. We employ a comprehensive dataset of Madagascan palms (Arecaceae) and climate reconstructions from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago) to assess the relative role of modern environment and LGM climate in explaining geographical species richness patterns in this major tropical biodiversity hotspot. We found that palaeoclimate exerted a strong influence on palm species richness patterns, with richness peaking in areas with higher LGM precipitation relative to present-day even after controlling for modern environment, in particular in northeastern Madagascar, consistent with the persistence of tropical rainforest during the LGM primarily in this region. Our results provide evidence that diversity patterns in the World''s most biodiverse regions may be shaped by long-term climate history as well as contemporary environment.     

A taxonomic revision of the genus Flagenium Baill. (Rubiaceae–Octotropideae)

A taxonomic revision of the genus Flagenium Baill. is presented. Flagenium is endemic to Madagascar and comprises six species; three new species are described here ( F. farafanganensis , F. petrikensis , and F. pedunculatum ) and one species ( F. arboreum ) is transferred into synonymy. Each species is fully described, and summaries of distribution, habitat and ecology, and phenology are given; conservation assessments are provided for each species. Flagenium is characterized by having ovaries with at least two erect and two pendulous ovules per locule, which, depending on the species, can display an additional two to four horizontal ovules per locule arranged between the uppermost and lowermost ovules. In addition, Flagenium has a longitudinally ten-ribbed fruit. These features are potentially unique within the Octotropideae.  © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 155 , 557–570.     

Seasonality in Reproduction of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepilemur edwardsi</Emphasis>

Sportive lemurs are threatened species in the IUCN Red Data Book. However, quantitative information on their reproduction, urgently required for conservation, has been lacking. We collected first data on reproductive activity of Milne-Edwards’ sportive lemurs in a population inhabiting the dry deciduous forest of the Ankarafantsika National Park in northwestern Madagascar during 1998, 2001, and 2003. The species showed a seasonal reproduction. The main mating season extended from May to June, as indicated by the presence of males with high testes volumes and estrus females. In the mating and early postmating season and in the postparturition season, sexes did not differ in body mass. Females had a significantly higher body mass than males in August and November, indicating pregnancy, which together with the presence of small infants in October and November implies that gravidity in females lasted for about 4–5 mo. All litters consisted of singletons. Individuals with body mass at the lower limit of the population either did not develop measurable testes volumes (males) or were not in estrus (females). They were probably juveniles from the previous birth season that achieved sexual maturity not before their second year after birth. The first data on reproduction suggest a low reproduction rate for Lepilemur edwardsi and a request for a higher conservation status than previously attributed and the need for further management strategies.