Pan-Arctic modelling of net ecosystem exchange of CO2

Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of C varies greatly among Arctic ecosystems. Here, we show that approximately 75 per cent of this variation can be accounted for in a single regression model that predicts NEE as a function of leaf area index (LAI), air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). The model was developed in concert with a survey of the light response of NEE in Arctic and subarctic tundras in Alaska, Greenland, Svalbard and Sweden. Model parametrizations based on data collected in one part of the Arctic can be used to predict NEE in other parts of the Arctic with accuracy similar to that of predictions based on data collected in the same site where NEE is predicted. The principal requirement for the dataset is that it should contain a sufficiently wide range of measurements of NEE at both high and low values of LAI, air temperature and PAR, to properly constrain the estimates of model parameters. Canopy N content can also be substituted for leaf area in predicting NEE, with equal or greater accuracy, but substitution of soil temperature for air temperature does not improve predictions. Overall, the results suggest a remarkable convergence in regulation of NEE in diverse ecosystem types throughout the Arctic.     

Past and future demographic dynamics of alpine species: limited genetic consequences despite dramatic range contraction in a plant from the Spanish Sierra Nevada

Anthropogenic global climate change is expected to cause severe range contractions among alpine plants. Alpine areas in the Mediterranean region are of special concern because of the high abundance of endemic species with narrow ranges. This study combined species distribution models, population structure analyses and Bayesian skyline plots to trace the past and future distribution and diversity of Linaria glacialis, an endangered narrow endemic species that inhabits summits of Sierra Nevada (Spain). The results showed that: (i) the habitat of this alpine‐Mediterranean species in Sierra Nevada suffered little changes during glacial and interglacial stages of late Quaternary; (ii) climatic oscillations in the last millennium (Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) moderately affected the demographic trends of L. glacialis; (iii) future warming conditions will cause severe range contractions; and (iv) genetic diversity will not diminish at the same pace as the distribution range. As a consequence of the low population structure of this species, genetic impoverishment in the alpine zones of Sierra Nevada should be limited during range contraction. We conclude that maintenance of large effective population sizes via high mutation rates and high levels of gene flow may promote the resilience of alpine plant species when confronted with global warming.     

Selection on QTL and complex traits in complex environments

Understanding genetic variation for complex traits in heterogeneous environments is a fundamental problem in biology. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Fournier‐Level et al. ( 2013 ) analyse quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing ecologically important phenotypes in mapping populations of Arabidopsis thaliana grown in four habitats across its native European range. They used causal modelling to quantify the selective consequences of life history and morphological traits and QTL on components of fitness. They found phenology QTL colocalizing with known flowering time genes as well as novel loci. Most QTL influenced fitness via life history and size traits, rather than QTL having direct effects on fitness. Comparison of phenotypes among environments found no evidence for genetic trade‐offs for phenology or growth traits, but genetic trade‐offs for fitness resulted because flowering time had opposite fitness effects in different environments. These changes in QTL effects and selective consequences may maintain genetic variation among populations.     

Current approaches using genetic distances produce poor estimates of landscape resistance to interindividual dispersal

Landscape resistance reflects how difficult it is for genes to move across an area with particular attributes (e.g. land cover, slope). An increasingly popular approach to estimate resistance uses Mantel and partial Mantel tests or causal modelling to relate observed genetic distances to effective distances under alternative sets of resistance parameters. Relatively few alternative sets of resistance parameters are tested, leading to relatively poor coverage of the parameter space. Although this approach does not explicitly model key stochastic processes of gene flow, including mating, dispersal, drift and inheritance, bias and precision of the resulting resistance parameters have not been assessed. We formally describe the most commonly used model as a set of equations and provide a formal approach for estimating resistance parameters. Our optimization finds the maximum Mantel r when an optimum exists and identifies the same resistance values as current approaches when the alternatives evaluated are near the optimum. Unfortunately, even where an optimum existed, estimates from the most commonly used model were imprecise and were typically much smaller than the simulated true resistance to dispersal. Causal modelling using Mantel significance tests also typically failed to support the true resistance to dispersal values. For a large range of scenarios, current approaches using a simple correlational model between genetic and effective distances do not yield accurate estimates of resistance to dispersal. We suggest that analysts consider the processes important to gene flow for their study species, model those processes explicitly and evaluate the quality of estimates resulting from their model.     

Phylogeography of the widespread African puff adder (Bitis arietans) reveals multiple Pleistocene refugia in southern Africa

Evidence from numerous Pan‐African savannah mammals indicates that open‐habitat refugia existed in Africa during the Pleistocene, isolated by expanding tropical forests during warm and humid interglacial periods. However, comparative data from other taxonomic groups are currently lacking. We present a phylogeographic investigation of the African puff adder (Bitis arietans), a snake that occurs in open‐habitat formations throughout sub‐Saharan Africa. Multiple parapatric mitochondrial clades occur across the current distribution of B. arietans, including a widespread southern African clade that is subdivided into four separate clades. We investigated the historical processes responsible for generating these phylogeographic patterns in southern Africa using species distribution modelling and genetic approaches. Our results show that interior regions of South Africa became largely inhospitable for B. arietans during glacial maxima, whereas coastal and more northerly areas remained habitable. This corresponds well with the locations of refugia inferred from mitochondrial data using a continuous phylogeographic diffusion model. Analysis of data from five anonymous nuclear loci revealed broadly similar patterns to mtDNA. Secondary admixture was detected between previously isolated refugial populations. In some cases, this is limited to individuals occurring near mitochondrial clade contact zones, but in other cases, more extensive admixture is evident. Overall, our study reveals a complex history of refugial isolation and secondary expansion for puff adders and a mosaic of isolated refugia in southern Africa. We also identify key differences between the processes that drove isolation in B. arietans and those hypothesized for sympatric savannah mammals.     

Predictive systems ecology

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.     

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species'' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns.     

The kinetic deuterium isotope effect as applied to metabolic deactivation of imatinib to the des-methyl metabolite,CGP74588

There has recently been a burgeoning interest in impeding drug metabolism by replacing hydrogen atoms with deuterium to invoke a kinetic isotope effect. Imatinib, a front-line therapy for both chronic myeloid leukemia and of gastrointestinal stromal tumours, is often substantially metabolised via N-demethylation to the significantly less active CGP74588. Since deuterium–carbon bonds are stronger than hydrogen–carbon bonds, we hypothesised that the N-trideuteromethyl analogue of imatinib might be subject to a reduced metabolic turnover as compared to imatinib and lead to different pharmacokinetic properties, and hence improved efficacy, in vivo. Consequently, we investigated whether the N-trideuteromethyl analogue would maintain target inhibition and show a reduced propensity for N-demethylation in in vitro assays with liver microsomes and following oral administration to rats. The N-trideuteromethyl compound exhibited similar activity as a tyrosine kinase inhibitor as imatinib and similar efficacy as an antiproliferative in cellular assays. In comparison to imatinib, the trideuterated analogue also showed reduced N-demethylation upon incubation with both rat and human liver microsomes, consistent with a deuterium isotope effect. However, the reduced in vitro metabolism did not translate into increased exposure of the N-trideuteromethyl analogue following intravenous administration of the compound to rats and no significant difference was observed for the formation of the N-desmethyl metabolite from either parent drug.     

Substrate-induced conformational changes of the mitochondrial oxoglutarate carrier: a spectroscopic and molecular modelling study

The structural and dynamic properties of the oxoglutarate carrier were investigated by introducing a single tryptophan in the Trp-devoid carrier in position 184, 190 or 199 and by monitoring the fluorescence spectra in the presence and absence of the substrate oxoglutarate. In the absence of substrate, the emission maxima of Arg190Trp, Cys184Trp and Leu199Trp are centered at 342, 345 and 348 nm, respectively, indicating that these residues have an increasing degree of solvent exposure. The emission intensity of the Arg190Trp and Cys184Trp mutants is higher than that of Leu199Trp. Addition of substrate increases the emission intensity of Leu199Trp, but not that of Cys184Trp and Arg190Trp. A 3D model of the oxoglutarate carrier was built using the structure of the ADP/ATP carrier as a template and was validated with the experimental results available in the literature. The model identifies Lys122 as the most likely candidate for the quenching of Trp199. Consistently, the double mutant Lys122Ala-Leu199Trp exhibits a higher emission intensity than Leu199Trp and does not display further fluorescence enhancement in response to substrate addition. Substitution of Lys122 with Cys and evaluation of its reactivity with a sulphydryl reagent in the presence and absence of substrate confirms that residue 122 is masked by the substrate, likely through a substrate-induced conformational change.     

The control of branching morphogenesis

Many organs of higher organisms are heavily branched structures and arise by an apparently similar process of branching morphogenesis. Yet the regulatory components and local interactions that have been identified differ greatly in these organs. It is an open question whether the regulatory processes work according to a common principle and how far physical and geometrical constraints determine the branching process. Here, we review the known regulatory factors and physical constraints in lung, kidney, pancreas, prostate, mammary gland and salivary gland branching morphogenesis, and describe the models that have been formulated to analyse their impacts.