Interaction Biases in Two-Period Crossover Studies: A Modified Analysis to Test with More Sensitivity

The two-period crossover trial is considered the most powerful means of determining the efficacy of new drugs. However, this study design is frequently invalidated by treatment-by-period interaction. If, for example, the effect of the first treatment period carries on into the next one, then it influences the response to the latter period (carryover effect). A second problem is, that the standard approach (Hills-Armitage analysis) for interaction bias has a low statistical sensitivity. The author recently described an alternative method entitled the clinical approach because it looks at the clinical performance of the separate treatment groups and not, as the standard approach, at the means of the groups. It may be hypothesized that this alternative approach is statistically more sensitive than the standard in situations where there is interaction in just one of the treatment groups. The present study uses two examples and a mathematical model. It shows that in case of single-group interaction the clinical approach can, indeed, detect carryover effect at a 30% lower level than the standard. On the other hand, however, the standard approach does so even at a 40% lower level than the clinical in case of two-group interaction. I conclude that one approach supplements the other and that they be used in future studies simultaneously.     

Sampling bias exaggerates a textbook example of a trophic cascade

Understanding trophic cascades in terrestrial wildlife communities is a major challenge because these systems are difficult to sample properly. We show how a tradition of non-random sampling has confounded this understanding in a textbook system (Yellowstone National Park) where carnivore [Canis lupus (wolf)] recovery is associated with a trophic cascade involving changes in herbivore [Cervus canadensis (elk)] behaviour and density that promote plant regeneration. Long-term data indicate a practice of sampling only the tallest young plants overestimated regeneration of overstory aspen (Populus tremuloides) by a factor of 4–7 compared to random sampling because it favoured plants taller than the preferred browsing height of elk and overlooked non-regenerating aspen stands. Random sampling described a trophic cascade, but it was weaker than the one that non-random sampling described. Our findings highlight the critical importance of basic sampling principles (e.g. randomisation) for achieving an accurate understanding of trophic cascades in terrestrial wildlife systems.     

Time preference and nutrition label use: Evidence from China

The assumption that label use behavior is, to some extent, intertemporal decision behavior because the benefit of label use cannot be realized instantly, is insufficiently considered. This paper is the first to examine directly if food nutrition label use is associated with behavioral inclinations in time preference. Using a theoretical analysis, this paper illustrates that individuals with lower present bias and higher long-run patience tend to use nutrition labels more frequently. In an empirical investigation, an analysis of a nationwide survey of 1220 Chinese adults confirmed that time preference relates to label use behavior, not only via impatience but also via hyperbolic discounting. Results of this study can help to better understand label-use behavior. They also provide important policy implications for the design of proper strategies for improving food nutrition label use, as well as help consumers in China and other developing countries choose healthier diets.     

The choice of universal primers and the characteristics of the species mixture determine when DNA metabarcoding can be quantitative

DNA metabarcoding is a technique used to survey biodiversity in many ecological settings, but there are doubts about whether it can provide quantitative results, that is, the proportions of each species in the mixture as opposed to a species list. While there are several experimental studies that report quantitative metabarcoding results, there are a similar number that fail to do so. Here, we provide the rationale to understand under what circumstances the technique can be quantitative. In essence, we simulate a mixture of DNA of S species with a defined initial abundance distribution. In the simulated PCR, each species increases its concentration following a certain amplification efficiency. The final DNA concentration will reflect the initial one when the efficiency is similar for all species; otherwise, the initial and final DNA concentrations would be poorly related. Although there are many known factors that modulate amplification efficiency, we focused on the number of primer–template mismatches, arguably the most important one. We used 15 common primers pairs targeting the mitochondrial COI region and the mitogenomes of ca. 1,200 insect species. The results showed that some primers pairs produced quantitative results under most circumstances, whereas some other primers failed to do so. In conclusion, depending on the primer pair used in the PCR amplification and on the characteristics of the mixture analysed (i.e., high species richness, low evenness), DNA metabarcoding can provide a quantitative estimate of the relative abundances of different species.     

New Caledonian Crows Behave Optimistically after Using Tools

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嗜热泉生古细菌及其他泉古菌同义密码子使用偏向性分析

比较分析了嗜热泉生古细菌(Aeropyrum pernix K1)和其他两种系统发育相关的泉古菌[嗜气菌(Pyrobaculum aerophi-lumstr.IM2)和嗜硫菌(Sulfolobus acidocaldarius DSM 639)]的同义密码子使用偏向性。结果表明嗜热泉生古细菌(Aeropyrum pernix K1)的密码子偏向性很小,并且与GC3S成高度的相关性。这3种泉古菌的密码子使用模式在进化上很保守。与基因的功能对密码子使用的影响相比,这些泉古菌密码子的使用偏向性更是由其物种所决定的。嗜热泉生古细菌(A.pernix K1),嗜气菌(P.aerophilum str.IM2)和嗜硫菌(S.acidocaldarius DSM 639)生存在不同的极限环境中。推测正是这些极限环境决定了这些泉古菌的密码子使用偏向性模式。此外在这些泉古菌的基因组中并没有发现其正义链和反义链的密码子使用偏向性差别。嗜热泉生古细菌(A.pernix K1)和嗜硫菌(S.acidocaldarius DSM 639)的密码子偏向性程度与基因表达水平有高度的相关性,而嗜气菌(P.aerophilum str.IM2)的基因组并没有发现这种规律。     

The Use of Epidemiology in Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities

The assessment of risk from environmental and occupational exposures incorporates and synthesizes data from a variety of scientific disciplines including toxicology and epidemiology. Epidemiological data have offered valuable contributions to the identification of human health hazards, estimation of human exposures, quantification of the exposure–response relation, and characterization of risks to specific target populations including sensitive populations. As with any scientific discipline, there are some uncertainties inherent in these data; however, the best human health risk assessments utilize all available information, characterizing strengths and limitations as appropriate. Human health risk assessors evaluating environmental and occupational exposures have raised concerns about the validity of using epidemiological data for risk assessment due to actual or perceived study limitations. This article highlights three concerns commonly raised during the development of human health risk assessments of environmental and occupational exposures: (a) error in the measurement of exposure, (b) potential confounding, and (c) the interpretation of non-linear or non-monotonic exposure–response data. These issues are often the content of scientific disagreement and debate among the human health risk assessment community, and we explore how these concerns may be contextualized, addressed, and often ameliorated.