Nonparametric estimation of ROC curves in the absence of a gold standard

In the evaluation of diagnostic accuracy of tests, a gold standard on the disease status is required. However, in many complex diseases, it is impossible or unethical to obtain such a gold standard. If an imperfect standard is used, the estimated accuracy of the tests would be biased. This type of bias is called imperfect gold standard bias. In this article we develop a nonparametric maximum likelihood method for estimating ROC curves and their areas of ordinal-scale tests in the absence of a gold standard. Our simulation study shows that the proposed estimators for the ROC curve areas have good finite-sample properties in terms of bias and mean squared error. Further simulation studies show that our nonparametric approach is comparable to the binormal parametric method, and is easier to implement. Finally, we illustrate the application of the proposed method in a real clinical study on assessing the accuracy of seven specific pathologists in detecting carcinoma in situ of the uterine cervix.     

Microsatellite analysis of genetic diversity in the Chinese alligator (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alligator sinensis</Emphasis>) Changxing captive population

Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis) is a critically endangered species endemic to China. In this study, the extent of genetic variation in the captive alligators of the Changxing Reserve Center was investigated using microsatellite markers derived from American alligators. Out of 22 loci employed, 21 were successfully amplified in the Chinese alligator. Sequence analysis showed loci in American alligators had a bigger average size than that of the Chinese alligators and the longest allele of an individual locus almost always existed in the species with longer stretch of repeat units. Eight of the 22 loci were found to be polymorphic with a total of 26 alleles present among 32 animals scored, yielding an average of 3.25 alleles per polymorphic locus. The expected heterozygosity (H _E) ranged at a moderate level from 0.4385 to 0.7163 in this population. Compared to that in the American alligators, a lower level of microsatellite diversity existed in the Changxing population as revealed by about 46% fewer alleles per locus and smaller H _E at the homologous loci. The average exclusion power and the ability to detect shared genotypes and multiple paternity were evaluated for those markers. Results suggested that when the polymorphic loci were combined, they could be sensitive markers in genetic diversity study and relatedness inference within the Chinese alligator populations. The level of genetic diversity present in the current Changxing population indicated an important resource to complement reintroductions based on the individuals from the other population. In addition, the microsatellite markers and their associated diversity characterized in this population could be utilized to further investigate the genetic status of this species.     

Reducing mutational bias in random protein libraries

The success of protein optimization through directed molecular evolution depends to a large extent on the size and quality of the displayed library. Current low-fidelity DNA polymerases that are commonly used during random mutagenesis and recombination in vitro display strong mutational preferences, favoring the substitution of certain nucleotides over others. The result is a biased and reduced functional diversity in the library under selection. In an effort to reduce mutational bias, we combined two different low-fidelity DNA polymerases, Taq and Mutazyme, which have opposite mutational spectra. As a first step, random mutants of the Bacillus thuringiensis cry9Ca1 gene were generated by separate error-prone polymerase chain reactions (PCRs) with each of the two polymerases. Subsequent shuffling by staggered extension process (StEP) of the PCR products resulted in intermediate numbers of AT and GC substitutions, compared to the Taq or Mutazyme error-prone PCR libraries. This strategy should allow generating unbiased libraries or libraries with a specific degree of mutational bias by applying optimal mutagenesis frequencies during error-prone PCR and controlling the concentration of template in the shuffling reaction while taking into account the GC content of the target gene.     

Fecundity and MHC affects ejaculation tactics and paternity bias in sand lizards

We demonstrate that extending copulation enhances probability of paternity in sand lizards and that determinants of copulation duration depend on a males' mating order (first or second). First males, with no information on presence of rivals, extend copulation when mating with a more fecund female. Second males, however, adjust copula duration in relation to a first male's relatedness with his female, which there is reason to believe can be deduced from the MHC-related odor of the copulatory plug. Male-female relatedness negatively influences a male's probability of paternity, and when second males are in a favored role (i.e., the first male is the one more closely related to the female), second males transfer larger ejaculates, resulting in higher probability of paternity. This result corroborates predictions from recent theoretical models on sperm expenditure theory incorporating cryptic female choice and sexual conflict. More specifically, the results conform to a "random roles" model, which depicts males as being favored by some females and disfavored by others, but not to a "constant-type" model, in which a male is either favored or disfavored uniformly by all females in a population.     

Correspondence regarding October 31, 2003, Breakthroughs and Views by K. Brown and P.L. Carmichael

A. Fuglsang [Biochem. Biophys. Res. Commun. 317 (2004) 957-964] suggested that effective number of codons for individual amino acids (Nc-values) should be re-adjusted to the number of synonymous codons of those amino acids, in order to prevent the overestimation of the effective number of codons. Here, it is shown that re-adjustment at the level of individual amino acids results in loss of considerable amounts of information. Furthermore, we have shown that theoretical Nc-values are functions of GC3s (and GC1s); as a result, when an amino acid Nc-value exceeds the related theoretical Nc-value, the implication of re-adjustment depends on the GC composition of the gene.     

Plastid Sequence Evolution: A New Pattern of Nucleotide Substitutions in the Cucurbitaceae

Nucleotide substitutions (i.e., point mutations) are the primary driving force in generating DNA variation upon which selection can act. Substitutions called transitions, which entail exchanges between purines (A=adenine, G=guanine) or pyrimidines (C=cytosine, T=thymine), typically outnumber transversions (e.g., exchanges between a purine and a pyrimidine) in a DNA strand. With an increasing number of plant studies revealing a transversion rather than transition bias, we chose to perform a detailed substitution analysis for the plant family Cucurbitaceae using data from several short plastid DNA sequences. We generated a phylogenetic tree for 19 taxa of the tribe Benincaseae and related genera and then scored conservative substitution changes (e.g., those not exhibiting homoplasy or reversals) from the unambiguous branches of the tree. Neither the transition nor (A+T)/(G+C) biases found in previous studies were supported by our overall data. More importantly, we found a novel and symmetrical substitution bias in which Gs had been preferentially replaced by A, As by C, Cs by T, and Ts by G, resulting in the GACTG substitution series. Understanding this pattern will lead to new hypotheses concerning plastid evolution, which in turn will affect the choices of substitution models and other tree-building algorithms for phylogenetic analyses based on nucleotide data.     

The evolution of vocabulary

Human language is unique among the communication systems of the natural world. The vocabulary of human language is unique in being both culturally transmitted and symbolic. In this paper I present an investigation into the factors involved in the evolution of such vocabulary systems. I investigate both the cultural evolution of vocabulary systems and the biological evolution of learning rules for vocabulary acquisition. Firstly, vocabularies are shown to evolve on a cultural time-scale so as to fit the expectations of learners-a population's vocabulary adapts to the biases of the learners in that population. A learning bias in favour of one-to-one mappings between meanings and words leads to the cultural evolution of communicatively optimal vocabulary systems, even in the absence of any explicit pressure for communication. Furthermore, the pressure to conform to the biases of learners is shown to outweigh natural selection acting on cultural transmission. Human language learners appear to bring a one-to-one bias to the acquisition of vocabulary systems. The functionality of human vocabulary may therefore be a consequence of the biases of human language learners. Secondly, the evolutionary stability of genetically transmitted vocabulary learning biases is investigated using both static and dynamic models. A one-to-one learning bias, which leads to the cultural evolution of optimal communication, is shown to be evolutionarily stable. However, the evolution de novo of this bias is complicated by the cumulative nature of the cultural evolution of vocabulary systems. This suggests that the biases of human language learners may not have evolved specifically and exclusively for the acquisition of communicatively functional vocabulary.     

Intragenic codon bias in a set of mouse and human genes

To better conceptualize the mechanism underlying the evolution of synonymous codons, we have analysed intragenic codon usage in chosen "regions" of some mouse and human genes. We divided a given gene into two regions: one consisting of a trinucleotide repeat (TNR) and the other consisting of the "rest of the coding region" (RCR). Usually, a TNR is composed of a repetitive single codon, which may reflect its frequency in a gene. In contrast, a non-random frequency of a codon in the RCR versus TNR (or vice versa) of a gene should indicate a bias for that codon within the TNR. We examined this scenario by comparing codon frequency between the RCR and the cognate TNR(s) for a set of human and mouse genes. A TNR length of six amino acids or more was used to identify genes from the Genbank database. Twenty nine human and twenty one mouse genes containing TNRs coding for nine different amino acid runs were identified. The ratio of codon frequency in a TNR versus the corresponding RCR was expressed as "fold change" which was also regarded as a measure of codon bias (defined as preferential use either in TNR or in RCR). Chi-square values were then determined from the distribution of codon frequency in a TNR vs. the cognate RCR. At p<0.001, 22% and 27%, respectively, of human and mouse TNRs showed codon bias. Greater than 40% of the TNRs (29 out of 69 in human, and 18 of 42 in mouse) showed codon bias at p<0.05. In addition, we identify eight single-codon TNRs in mouse and ten in human genes. Thus, our results show intragenic codon bias in both mouse and human genes expressed in diverse tissue types. Since our results are independent of the Codon Adaptation Index (CAI) and starvation CAI, and since the tRNA repertoire in a cell or in a tissue is constant, our data suggest that other constraints besides tRNA abundance played a role in creating intragenic codon bias in these genes.     

Underreporting of BMI in adults and its effect on obesity prevalence estimations in the period 1998 to 2001

Objective: To identify the determinants of underreporting BMI and to evaluate the possibilities of using self‐reported data for valid obesity prevalence rate estimations. Research Methods and Procedures: A cross‐sectional monitoring health survey was carried out between 1998 and 2002, and a review of published studies was performed. A total of 1809 men and 1882 women ages 20 to 59 years from The Netherlands were included. Body weight and height were reported and measured. Equations were calculated to estimate individuals’ BMI from reported data. These equations and equations from published studies were applied to the present data to evaluate whether using these equations led to valid estimations of the obesity prevalence rate. Also, size of underestimation of obesity prevalence rate was compared between studies. Results: The prevalence of obesity was underestimated by 26.1% and 30.0% among men and women, respectively, when based on reported data. The most important determinant of underreporting BMI was a high BMI. When equations to calculate individuals’ BMI from reported data were used, the obesity prevalence rate was still underestimated by 12.9% and 8.1% of the “true” obesity prevalence rate among men and women, respectively. The degree of underestimating the obesity prevalence was inconsistent across studies. Applying equations from published studies to the present data led to estimations of the obesity prevalence varying from a 7% overestimation to a 74% underestimation. Discussion: Valuable efforts for monitoring and evaluating prevention and treatment studies require direct measurements of body weight and height.     

Differential Use of Trails by Forest Mammals and the Implications for Camera-Trap Studies: A Case Study from Belize

Relative abundance indices are often used to compare species abundance between sites. The indices assume that species have similar detection probabilities, or that differences between detection probabilities are known and can be corrected for. Indices often consist of encounter frequencies of footprints, burrows, markings or photo captures along trails or transect lines, but the assumption of equal detection probabilities is rarely validated. This study analyzes detection probabilities of a range of Neotropical mammals on trails in dense secondary forests, using camera-trap and track data. Photo captures of the two large cats, jaguars ( Panthera onca ) and pumas ( Puma concolor ), were correlated solely with trail variables, while photo captures of their potential prey species had no correlation or negative correlation with trail variables. The Neotropical mammals varied greatly in their tendency to follow or cross trails based on footprints surveys. This indicates that camera locations on trails will have varying detection probability for these Neotropical mammals. Even the two similar-sized jaguars and pumas, occupying relatively similar niches, differed subtly in their use of trails. Pumas followed trails more completely while jaguars were more likely to deviate from trails. The ecological significance of these findings is that jaguars seem to be more willing to use the forest matrix away from trails than do pumas. We conclude that trail-based indices, such as photographic captures or tracks along trails, are not appropriate for comparison between Neotropical species, and not even between relatively similar species like jaguars and pumas.