Parametric dependence in model epidemics. I: Contact-related parameters

One of the interesting properties of nonlinear dynamical systems is that arbitrarily small changes in parameter values can induce qualitative changes in behavior. The changes are called bifurcations, and they are typically visualized by plotting asymptotic dynamics against a parameter. In some cases, the resulting bifurcation diagram is unique: irrespective of initial conditions, the same dynamical sequence obtains. In other cases, initial conditions do matter, and there are coexisting sequences. Here we study an epidemiological model in which multiple bifurcation sequences yield to a single sequence in response to varying a second parameter. We call this simplification the emergence of unique parametric dependence (UPD) and discuss how it relates to the model’s overall response to parameters. In so doing, we tie together a number of threads that have been developing since the mid-1980s. These include period-doubling; subharmonic resonance, attractor merging and subduction and the evolution of strange invariant sets. The present paper focuses on contact related parameters. A follow-up paper, to be published in this journal, will consider the effects of non-contact related parameters.     

Grassland plant species occurring in extensively managed road verges are filtered by urban environments

Background: Urbanisation filters species in communities depending on their adaptability to conditions in built-up areas, especially in semi-natural habitats. Roadside vegetation is widespread along urban-rural gradients and is therefore a good place to study landscape-scale factors influencing plant community composition.

Aim: Our study aimed to assess how plant species distributions vary between urban and rural landscape contexts and to identify biological traits favoured in urban areas.

Methods: Presence/absence data for 63 indigenous common species were collected in 296 road verge patches distributed along the urban–rural gradient in three French cities. We investigated the effects of landscape composition on species assemblages and related individual species responses to urbanisation to functional traits associated with dispersal and persistence capacity.

Results: Many grassland species were negatively affected by increasing proportion of built-up areas in the landscape. Insect-pollination and high seed production appeared to be key traits favoured in grassland communities in urban areas, whereas dispersal modes were less related to plant distribution.

Conclusions: This study has demonstrated that urban filters affect common species of widespread, managed road verges. Better knowledge of the flora of these herbaceous roadsides may contribute to the conservation of common biodiversity within other grassland habitats found in urban areas.     

Estimating the proportion cured of cancer: Some practical advice for users

BackgroundCure models can provide improved possibilities for inference if used appropriately, but there is potential for misleading results if care is not taken. In this study, we compared five commonly used approaches for modelling cure in a relative survival framework and provide some practical advice on the use of these approaches.Patients and methodsData for colon, female breast, and ovarian cancers were used to illustrate these approaches. The proportion cured was estimated for each of these three cancers within each of three age groups. We then graphically assessed the assumption of cure and the model fit, by comparing the predicted relative survival from the cure models to empirical life table estimates.ResultsWhere both cure and distributional assumptions are appropriate (e.g., for colon or ovarian cancer patients aged <75 years), all five approaches led to similar estimates of the proportion cured. The estimates varied slightly when cure was a reasonable assumption but the distributional assumption was not (e.g., for colon cancer patients ≥75 years). Greater variability in the estimates was observed when the cure assumption was not supported by the data (breast cancer).ConclusionsIf the data suggest cure is not a reasonable assumption then we advise against fitting cure models. In the scenarios where cure was reasonable, we found that flexible parametric cure models performed at least as well, or better, than the other modelling approaches. We recommend that, regardless of the model used, the underlying assumptions for cure and model fit should always be graphically assessed.     

Metastatic risk and resistance to BRAF inhibitors in melanoma defined by selective allelic loss of ATG5

Melanoma is a paradigm of aggressive tumors with a complex and heterogeneous genetic background. Still, melanoma cells frequently retain developmental traits that trace back to lineage specification programs. In particular, lysosome-associated vesicular trafficking is emerging as a melanoma-enriched lineage dependency. However, the contribution of other lysosomal functions such as autophagy to melanoma progression is unclear, particularly in the context of metastasis and resistance to targeted therapy. Here we mined a broad spectrum of cancers for a meta-analysis of mRNA expression, copy number variation and prognostic value of 13 core autophagy genes. This strategy identified heterozygous loss of ATG5 at chromosome band 6q21 as a distinctive feature of advanced melanomas. Importantly, partial ATG5 loss predicted poor overall patient survival in a manner not shared by other autophagy factors and not recapitulated in other tumor types. This prognostic relevance of ATG5 copy number was not evident for other 6q21 neighboring genes. Melanocyte-specific mouse models confirmed that heterozygous (but not homozygous) deletion of Atg5 enhanced melanoma metastasis and compromised the response to targeted therapy (exemplified by dabrafenib, a BRAF inhibitor in clinical use). Collectively, our results support ATG5 as a therapeutically relevant dose-dependent rheostat of melanoma progression. Moreover, these data have important translational implications in drug design, as partial blockade of autophagy genes may worsen (instead of counteracting) the malignant behavior of metastatic melanomas.     

The YUMM lines: a series of congenic mouse melanoma cell lines with defined genetic alterations

The remarkable success of immune therapies emphasizes the need for immune‐competent cancer models. Elegant genetically engineered mouse models of a variety of cancers have been established, but their effective use is limited by cost and difficulties in rapidly generating experimental data. Some mouse cancer cell lines are transplantable to immunocompetent host mice and have been utilized extensively to study cancer immunology. Here, we describe the Yale University Mouse Melanoma (YUMM) lines, a comprehensive system of mouse melanoma cell lines that are syngeneic to C57BL/6, have well‐defined human‐relevant driver mutations, and are genomically stable. This will be a useful tool for the study of tumor immunology and genotype‐specific cancer biology.     

Genotype‐environment associations support a mosaic hybrid zone between two tidal marsh birds

Local environmental features can shape hybrid zone dynamics when hybrids are bounded by ecotones or when patchily distributed habitat types lead to a corresponding mosaic of genotypes. We investigated the role of marsh‐level characteristics in shaping a hybrid zone between two recently diverged avian taxa – Saltmarsh (Ammodramus caudacutus) and Nelson's (A. nelsoni) sparrows. These species occupy different niches where allopatric, with caudacutus restricted to coastal marshes and nelsoni found in a broader array of wetland and grassland habitats and co‐occur in tidal marshes in sympatry. We determined the influence of habitat types on the distribution of pure and hybrid sparrows and assessed the degree of overlap in the ecological niche of each taxon. To do this, we sampled and genotyped 305 sparrows from 34 marshes across the hybrid zone and from adjacent regions. We used linear regression to test for associations between marsh characteristics and the distribution of pure and admixed sparrows. We found a positive correlation between genotype and environmental variables with a patchy distribution of genotypes and habitats across the hybrid zone. Ecological niche models suggest that the hybrid niche was more similar to that of A. nelsoni and habitat suitability was influenced strongly by distance from coastline. Our results support a mosaic model of hybrid zone maintenance, suggesting a role for local environmental features in shaping the distribution and frequency of pure species and hybrids across space.