Development of a surrogate model based on patient weight,bone mass and geometry to predict femoral neck strains and fracture loads

Osteoporosis and related bone fractures are an increasing global burden in our ageing society. Areal bone mineral density assessed through dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), the clinically accepted and most used method, is not sufficient to assess fracture risk individually. Finite element (FE) modelling has shown improvements in prediction of fracture risk, better than aBMD from DEXA, but is not practical for widespread clinical use. The aim of this study was to develop an adaptive neural network (ANN)-based surrogate model to predict femoral neck strains and fracture loads obtained from a previously developed population-based FE model. The surrogate model performance was assessed in simulating two loading conditions: the stance phase of gait and a fall.The surrogate model successfully predicted strains estimated by FE (r² = 0.90–0.98 for level gait load case, r² = 0.92–0.96 for the fall load case). Moreover, an ANN model based on three measurements obtainable in clinics (femoral neck length (level gait) or maximum femoral neck diameter (fall), femoral neck bone mass, body weight) was able to give reasonable predictions (r² = 0.84–0.94) for all of the strain metrics and the estimated femoral neck fracture load. Overall, the surrogate model has potential for clinical applications as they are based on simple measures of geometry and bone mass which can be derived from DEXA images, accurately predicting FE model outcomes, with advantages over FE models as they are quicker and easier to perform.     

Palaeodistribution modelling does not support disjunct Pleistocene refugia in several Central American plant taxa

Aim We combine evidence from palaeoniche modelling studies of several tree species to estimate the extent of Central American forest during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In particular, we ask whether the distributions of these species are likely to have changed since the LGM, and whether LGM distributions coincide with previously proposed Pleistocene refugia in this area. Location Central American wet and seasonally dry forests. Methods We developed ecological niche models using two simulations of Pleistocene climate and occurrence data for 15 Neotropical plant species. We focused on palaeodistribution models of three ‘focal’ tree species that occur in wet and seasonally dry Central American forests, where recent phylogeographic data suggest Pleistocene differentiation coincident with previously proposed refugia. We added predictions from six wet‐forest and six seasonally dry‐forest obligate plant species to gauge whether Pleistocene range shifts were specific to habitat type. Correlation analyses were performed between projected LGM and present distributions, LGM distributions and previously proposed refugia. We also asked whether modelled palaeodistributions were smaller than their current extents. Results According to our models, the ranges of the study species were not reduced during the LGM, and did not correlate with refugial models, regardless of habitat type. Relative range sizes between present and LGM distributions did not indicate significant range changes since the LGM. However, relative range sizes differed overall between the two palaeoclimate models. Main conclusions Many of the modelled palaeodistributions of study species were not restricted to refugia during the LGM, regardless of forest type. While constrained from higher elevations, most species found suitable habitat at coastal margins and on newly exposed land due to lowered sea levels during the LGM. These results offer no corroboration for Pleistocene climate change as a driver of genetic differentiation in the ‘focal’ species. We offer alternative explanations for genetic differentiation found in plant species in this area.     

The eutrophication of shallow coastal lakes in Southwest England — understanding and recommendations for restoration,based on palaeolimnology,historical records,and the modelling of changing phosphorus loads

Palaeolimnological studies of sediments from Slapton Ley and Loe Pool, two coastal freshwater lakes in Southwest England, show that in the period since 1945, they have been eutrophicated by nutrient inputs from intensification of agriculture, but also from sewage effluent. Two simple models have been used to identify the main sources of catchment outputs, and in the case of Slapton Ley, to evaluate historical changes in land use, and their likely effect on lake trophic status.Restoration strategies may also be evaluated using the same models. They suggest that in order to reduce loads on either lake to within OECD permissible limits, not only will all sewage inputs need to be prevented, and non-phosphate detergents used, but also losses from agricultural land must be reduced. This could take the form of the keeping of fewer cattle (the main source of organic nitrogen and phosphorus in both catchments), or the zoning of the respective catchments so that steep slopes close to riparian zones are not used, as at present, for the grazing of livestock.A better option, however, would appear to be the establishment along most of the rivers draining into these lakes, of buffer strips of woodland at least 15 m wide. According to the models, this measure, along with treatment or diversion of sewage effluent, would reduce phosphorus loads upon the lakes to within acceptable limits.     

The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species

Genetic diversity provides the basic substrate for evolution, yet few studies assess the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on intraspecific genetic variation. In this review, we highlight the importance of incorporating neutral and non‐neutral genetic diversity when assessing the impacts of GCC, for example, in studies that aim to predict the future distribution and fate of a species or ecological community. Specifically, we address the following questions: Why study the effects of GCC on intraspecific genetic diversity? How does GCC affect genetic diversity? How is the effect of GCC on genetic diversity currently studied? Where is potential for future research? For each of these questions, we provide a general background and highlight case studies across the animal, plant and microbial kingdoms. We further discuss how cryptic diversity can affect GCC assessments, how genetic diversity can be integrated into studies that aim to predict species' responses on GCC and how conservation efforts related to GCC can incorporate and profit from inclusion of genetic diversity assessments. We argue that studying the fate of intraspecifc genetic diversity is an indispensable and logical venture if we are to fully understand the consequences of GCC on biodiversity on all levels.     

Forecasting intensifying disturbance effects on coral reefs

Anticipating future changes of an ecosystem's dynamics requires knowledge of how its key communities respond to current environmental regimes. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat, with rapid changes of its reef‐building hard coral (HC) community structure already evident across broad spatial scales. While several underlying relationships between HC and multiple disturbances have been documented, responses of other benthic communities to disturbances are not well understood. Here we used statistical modelling to explore the effects of broad‐scale climate‐related disturbances on benthic communities to predict their structure under scenarios of increasing disturbance frequency. We parameterized a multivariate model using the composition of benthic communities estimated by 145,000 observations from the northern GBR between 2012 and 2017. During this time, surveyed reefs were variously impacted by two tropical cyclones and two heat stress events that resulted in extensive HC mortality. This unprecedented sequence of disturbances was used to estimate the effects of discrete versus interacting disturbances on the compositional structure of HC, soft corals (SC) and algae. Discrete disturbances increased the prevalence of algae relative to HC while the interaction between cyclones and heat stress was the main driver of the increase in SC relative to algae and HC. Predictions from disturbance scenarios included relative increases in algae versus SC that varied by the frequency and types of disturbance interactions. However, high uncertainty of compositional changes in the presence of several disturbances shows that responses of algae and SC to the decline in HC needs further research. Better understanding of the effects of multiple disturbances on benthic communities as a whole is essential for predicting the future status of coral reefs and managing them in the light of new environmental regimes. The approach we develop here opens new opportunities for reaching this goal.     

Towards a coupled paradigm of NH3‐CO2 biosphere–atmosphere exchange modelling

Stomatal conductance, one of the major plant physiological controls within NH₃ biosphere–atmosphere exchange models, is commonly estimated from semi‐empirical multiplicative schemes or simple light‐ and temperature‐response functions. However, due to their inherent parameterization on meteorological proxy variables, instead of a direct measure of stomatal opening, they are unfit for the use in climate change scenarios and of limited value for interpreting field‐scale measurements. Alternatives based on H₂O flux measurements suffer from uncertainties in the partitioning of evapotranspiration at humid sites, as well as a potential decoupling of transpiration from stomatal opening in the presence of hygroscopic particles on leaf surfaces. We argue that these problems may be avoided by directly deriving stomatal conductance from CO₂ fluxes instead. We reanalysed a data set of NH₃ flux measurements based on CO₂‐derived stomatal conductance, confirming the hypothesis that the increasing relevance of stomatal exchange with the onset of vegetation activity caused a rapid decrease of observed NH₃ deposition velocities. Finally, we argue that developing more mechanistic representations of NH₃ biosphere–atmosphere exchange can be of great benefit in many applications. These range from model‐based flux partitioning, over deposition monitoring using low‐cost samplers and inferential modelling, to a direct response of NH₃ exchange to climate change.