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111.
Some epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence   总被引:20,自引:0,他引:20  
Epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates can have very different dynamic behaviors than those with the usual bilinear incidence rate. The first model considered here includes vital dynamics and a disease process where susceptibles become exposed, then infectious, then removed with temporary immunity and then susceptible again. When the equilibria and stability are investigated, it is found that multiple equilibria exist for some parameter values and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation from the larger endemic equilibrium. Many results analogous to those in the first model are obtained for the second model which has a delay in the removed class but no exposed class.Research supported in part by Centers for Disease Control Contract 200-87-0515. Support services provided at University House Research Center at the University of IowaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965 and the University of Victoria President's Committee on Faculty Research and Travel  相似文献   
112.
and 1988. Aspects of the life history of Cercopithifilaria johnstoni (Nematoda:Filarioidea). International Journal for Parasitology 18: 1087–1092. Cercopithifilaria johnstoni (Nematoda:Filarioidea) occurs in the subcutaneous connective tissues of a spectrum of native murid and marsupial hosts in Eastern Australia. Life cycle studies revealed that: (i) microfilaria occur in lymphatic capillaries and extravascular connective tissue of the dermis (= ‘skin-inhabiting’), (ii) ixodid ticks, particularly Ixodes trichosuri, are intermediate hosts in nature, (iii) development from microfilariae to infective third-stage larva occurs only while the tick is off the host, that is, during ecdysis from larva to nymph or from nymph to adult. Transmission of C. johnstoni in a wild population of bush rats (Rattus fuscipes) occurred in summer and winter, and was associated with peaks in the number of larval and/or nymphal stages of ticks on rats. C. johnstoni was transmitted experimentally to bandicoots (Isoodon macrourus, Perameles nasuta), bush rats and laboratory rats (R. norvegicus), indirectly by subcutaneous inoculation of third-stage larvae and directly by tick feeding. The prepatent period was approximately 3 months and the longest duration of microfilariae in the ‘ skin’ was more than 25 months. Dermal and ocular lesions were observed in R. fuscipes. The host-parasite relationship has the potential for development as an inexpensive and practical model for human onchocerciasis.  相似文献   
113.
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115.
Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models   总被引:186,自引:0,他引:186  
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116.
Control of leafrollers using Insect Growth Regulators with juvenile-hormone acitivity (IGR) is a major issue in research on Integrated Pest Management in apple orchards. The IGR is applied at the time of emergence of the last-larval instar of leafrollers, thus causing a disturbance of metamorphosis.Simulation models on the development of Pandemis heparana (Denn. et Schiff.) and Adoxophyes orana (F.v.R.) were developed, partly on the basis of experiments, partly on data from literature, to predict the time of emergence of the various stages, particularly of the last-larval instar and the pupa. The models use the state-variable approach, and include only temperature as a driving variable.Simulated curves of emergence of last-instar larvae, pupae and moths corresponded well with observations on field-collected larvae, reared to adult stage in an outdoor insectary. The curves of pheromone trap catches showed a delay relative to the calculated and observed curves for the eclosion of pupae.To investigate whether the time of IGR application could be related to a temperature sum, the relation between emergence curves of last-instar larvae and temperature sums was studied for several years. For this purpose simulated curves were used, because observations on emergence of last-instar covered only a few years.
Résumé Le contrôle des Tordeuses par les régulateurs de croissance d'Insectes (IGR), à activité d'hormone juvénile, est un progrès majeur dans la recherche pour la lutte intégrée contre les ennemis des vergers de pommiers.L'IGR appliqué lors de l'apparition du dernier stade larvaire des Tordeuses, perturbe ainsi la métamorphose ultérieure. Afin de prévoir le moment d'apparition des différents stades, et plus particulièrement du dernier stade larvaire, des modèles de simulation du développement de Pandemis heparana (Denn. et Schiff.) et Adoxophyes orana (F.v.R.) ont été élaborés à partir d'expériences et en se basant sur des résultats de la littérature.Le modèle est basé sur l'examen de la variable d'état, la température étant la variable discriminante suivie.Les courbes simulées d'apparition des larves de dernier stade, des nymphes et des papillons correspondent aux observations faites sur les larves récoltées dans la nature et élevées jusqu'au stade adulte dans un insectarium en plein air.Le taux de capture dans les pièges à phéromone présente un retard par rapport aux courbes calculées et observées pour l'éclosion des nymphes. Différentes causes peuvent être attribuées à cette différence, mais l'influence d'aucune d'elles n'a été étudiée.Afin de déterminer si le moment de l'application d'IGR peut être lié à une somme de températures, les courbes d'apparition des larves de dernier stade ont été étudiées en relation avec les sommes de températures portant sur plusieurs années. Les observations concernant l'apparition des larves de dernier stade ne couvrant que 2 années, des courbes simulées ont été utilisées à cet effet. L'emploid de la relation liant le moment de l'apparition à la somme des températures permet de n'avoir à calculer que les sommes de températures pour déterminer le moment opportun de l'application des IGR.
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117.
Using four continuous-flow indoor reservoir models, the combined effects of varying water inlet depth and sediment composition on phytoplankton species composition and its succession pattern were studied. Species which are known to bloom in eutrophicated reservoirs were dominant in the species succession in each tank. At any one time, a step-like pattern was observed in the composition of the dominant species of each tank, wherein all the species which appeared in a tank with a lower phosphorus concentration were included in the species composition of the tank with a higher phosphorus concentration in an additive relationship.  相似文献   
118.
Respiration was measured in dauer stages of the insect-parasitic nematode Steinernema feltiae (= Neoaplectana carpocapsae) at 7, 17, and 27 C. Respiration, Q₁₀, and nematode viability were temperature dependent. Mean O₂ consumption for 5 × 10⁵ nematodes the first 24 hours was 0.27 ml at 7 C, 0.83 ml at 17 C, and 2.68 ml at 27 C. The Q₁₀ was 3.10 for 7-17 C and 3.24 for 17-27 C. Some nematodes died during 2, 14, and 21 days at 27, 17, and 7 C, respectively. The respiratory quotient was below 1 at all temperatures tested. A standard asymptotic model is expressed as oxygen consumed = 2.77 * {1 - exponent[-time * exponent(-B + C * temperature)]}; where 2.77 is the maximum response at 27 C. This model estimates nematode O₂ consumption and viability at storage temperatures between 7 and 27 C. The nematodes died when the O₂ concentration reached 0.5 ml/5 × 10⁵ nematodes. This model may be used to predict O₂ requirements of S. feltiae infective juveniles when stored as a waterless concentrate.  相似文献   
119.
Summary Illegitimate recombination dependent on T4 DNA topoisomerase in a cell-free system has recently been described. In that work, recombinants between two phage DNA molecules were produced by the topoisomerase alone, without an Escherichia coli extract. In this paper, it is shown that recombination between phage and circular plasmid DNA molecules can also be detected in the presence or absence of an E. coli extract but at frequencies two or three orders of magnitude lower than that observed in the phage-phage cross. The frequency is probably lower because multiple recombination is required in the case of the phage-plasmid cross.  相似文献   
120.
Cholinergic processes were measured in motor cortex, hippocampus, and striatum of cats in the terminal stages of GM1 gangliosidosis and compared to those of control cats. The greatest difference observed was elevation in the rate of K+-stimulated release of acetylcholine (ACh) from brain slices prepared from affected cats. The K+-stimulated release of endogenous ACh was increased by 31-43% and of newly synthesized ACh by 19-80% in brain slices from different brain regions. All regions that were examined were affected but the greatest effects occurred in cortex. The rate of synthesis of ACh was elevated in cortical and hippocampal slices. Choline acetyltransferase activity in brain regions of cats with GM1 gangliosidosis was not significantly different from that in controls, whereas high-affinity choline transport in cortical synaptosomes was elevated. Muscarinic receptor binding sites were reduced in the cortex, hippocampus, and striatum of GM1 mutant cats, whereas the apparent affinity was not altered. These results indicate that there are major alterations of cholinergic function in the brains of cats with GM1 gangliosidosis.  相似文献   
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