小麦品种的感病性与条锈病流行关系的定量分析

小麦条锈病(Puccinia striformis West.)的流行受渚多因素的影响,品种的感病性是其中的重要因素。我国自50年代以来,条锈病曾发生3次全国性大流行和多次局部地区流行,     

A Theoretical Basis for Gompertz'S Curve

GOMPERTZ'S model (1825) has remained a purely empirical one, despite its frequent usage. A theoretical justification is given which permits its employment in cases of accretionary growth.     

The natural distribution of survival

Great similarities in survival patterns permit the Gompertz and other established equations to describe parts of mortality curves in various species. These patterns appear non-random and invite inference of biological meaning, though no unifying explanation is agreed.Under the theory described here, linear decline of an initial quantity of species or strain-specific redundant reserve interacts with extrinsic hazards via a ‘nested binomial’ model, which is presented both in a simple, four parameter form, and a more complex form that incorporates inter-individual and inter-functional biological variation.This approach demonstrates exponential rises in mortality, late-life deceleration and Strehler-Mildvan correlation. Biological variation within the complex model, specifically in the redundancy decay rate parameter, is shown to generate mortality plateaux, while outlier phenotypes produce mortality decelerations, supporting inter-individual heterogeneity as the cause of these phenomena. The model is robust to large variations in organism complexity, and to broad intra-population hazard variation. Specific parameters appear analogous to observed elements of ageing, and a central role for redundancy depletion provides a context for longevity genes and rapid evolution of increased lifespan.This approach offers a unifying model for a great variety of ageing phenomena across a wide range of species.     

Modelling nitrogen-corrected apparent metabolisable energy requirement for egg production of 3 BW types of Yellow Broiler breeder hens during the egg-laying period

Accurate prediction of energy requirement is important in formulating diets, but an energy model for Yellow Broiler breeder hens is publicly unavailable. The objective of this study was to establish energy prediction models for the nitrogen-corrected apparent metabolisable energy (AMEn) requirement of different categories of Yellow Broiler breeder hens during the egg-laying period. Data for modelling were collected from research papers, public databases and production data from companies. Breeder hens were generally categorised into three BW types: heavy, medium and light (HBWT, MBWT and LBWT). Published articles were cited for providing coefficients of AMEn maintenance requirement (AMEnm, 101 kcal/kg BW^0.75, 423 KJ/kg BW^0.75) and growth requirement (AMEng, 5.33 kcal/g, 22.3 KJ/g), respectively. Models of AMEn for egg production (AMEnp) were established from the known daily intake of AMEn (AMEni) and those of maintenance and growth by the factorial approach: AMEnp = AMEni ? AMEnm ? AMEng. For the three types of hens, AMEnp HBWT (kcal, KJ) = 2.55 kcal (10.7 KJ) × egg mass (EM, g); AMEnp MBWT (kcal, KJ) = 2.70 kcal (11.3 KJ) × EM (g), and AMEnp LBWT (kcal, KJ) = 2.94 kcal (12.3 KJ) × EM (g) were determined. The total AMEni requirements, depending on Gompertz models, were HBWT: BW (g) = 3 144 × e^{?EXP(?0.162×(week of age (wk)?15.6))}; MBWT: BW (g) = 2 526 × e^{?EXP(?0.333×(wk?19.1))}; LBWT: BW (g) = 1 612 × e^{?EXP(?0.242×(wk?16.5))}. Models of egg production, HBWT: egg production (%) = 124 × e^?0.017×wk/(1 + e^{?0.870×(wk?26.2)}); MBWT: egg production (%) = 144 × e^?0.020×wk/(1 + e^{?0.751×(wk?24.9)}); LBWT: egg production (%) = 163 × e^?0.024×wk/(1 + e^{?0.476×(wk?26.5)})) and egg weight for each wk of the three types of hens during the egg-laying period were all established. These models showed good applicability in simulating and predicting the literature or production data.     

Age,growth and maturity of the pelagic thresher Alopias pelagicus and the scalloped hammerhead Sphyrna lewini

Indonesia has the greatest reported chondrichthyan catches worldwide, with c.110,000 t caught annually. The pelagic thresher (Alopias pelagicus) and scalloped hammerhead (Sphryna lewini) together comprise about 25% of the total catches of sharks landed in Indonesia. Age and growth parameters were estimated for A. pelagicus and S. lewini from growth‐band counts of thin‐cut vertebral sections. Alopias pelagicus (n = 158) and S. lewini (n = 157) vertebrae were collected from three Indonesian fish markets over a 5 year period. A multi‐model analysis was used to estimate growth parameters for both species. The models of best fit for males and females for A. pelagicus was the three‐parameter logistic (L_∞ = 3169 mm L_T, k = 0·2) and the two‐parameter von Bertalanffy models (L_∞ = 3281 mm L_T, k = 0·12). Age at maturity was calculated to be 10·4 and 13·2 years for males and females, respectively, and these are the oldest estimated for this species. The samples of S. lewini were heavily biased towards females, and the model of best fit for males and females was the three‐parameter Gompertz (L_∞ = 2598 mm L_T, k = 0·15) and the two‐parameter Gompertz (L_∞ = 2896 mm L_T, k= 0·16). Age at maturity was calculated to be 8·9 and 13·2 years for males and females, respectively. Although numerous age and growth studies have previously been undertaken on S. lewini, few studies have been able to obtain adequate samples from all components of the population because adult females, adult males and juveniles often reside in different areas. For the first time, sex bias in this study was towards sexually mature females, which are commonly lacking in previous biological studies on S. lewini. Additionally, some of the oldest aged specimens and highest age at maturity for both species were observed in this study. Both species exhibit slow rates of growth and late age at maturity, highlighting the need for a re‐assessment of the relative resilience of these two globally threatened sharks at current high levels of fishing mortality throughout the eastern Indian Ocean.     

Thermal Inactivation of Salmonella Serotypes in Red Meat as Affected by Fat Content

Survival curves of a cocktail of eight serotypes of Salmonella in ground beef and pork meat of different levels of fat (4% to 28%), at temperatures that ranged from 58°C to 65°C, were examined. Asymptotic D-values (D-values for large times) and initial D-values (D-values for small times, near zero) were estimated by identifying regions where the survival curves were linear, and performing linear regressions on data within the identified regions. The initial lag D-values increase with increasing fat levels for both beef and pork. The relationship of the asymptotic D-values with fat levels and temperature is complex, and definitive conclusions could not be made. It appears that, for ground beef, asymptotic D-values increase with increasing fat levels, but this was not the case for ground pork. The shapes of the survival curves were concave, convex, and sigmoidal, and depended upon the temperature, where for the lower temperatures studied (58°C and 60°C) the curves exhibited tailing. The Gompertz function was found to provide a good fit to the data over the range of temperatures and fat levels studied. These results, particularly for beef, suggest the importance of determining the shape of the survival curves (concave, convex or sigmoidal) when estimating times needed to obtain an adequate margin of safety for thermal processes of red meat.     

ASPECTS OF GROWTH IN CAPTIVE KILLER WHALES (ORCINUS ORCA)

Morphometrics from 25 captive killer whales (11 captive-born) were collected at SeaWorld parks from 1984 to 1995 to determine age-specific growth parameters. For sexes combined, the body-volume index was the most accurate predictor of body weight. However, predicting weight from total length was appropriate, although it may underestimate weight of pregnant animals. Among captive-born calves, a Gompertz model was the best predictor of weight and length at age. Estimates for length and weight at birth were done using data from in utero and neonatal calves. For ages 1-5 yr, models indicate that males grew in both weight and length at slower rates. Growth rates in males may surpass those of females at approximately 5-6 yr of age.     

Can telomere shortening explain sigmoidal growth curves?

A general branching process model is proposed to describe the shortening of telomeres in eukaryotic chromosomes. The model is flexible and incorporates many special cases to be found in the literature. In particular, we show how telomere shortening can give rise to sigmoidal growth curves, an idea first expressed by Portugal et al. [A computational model for telomere-dependent cell-replicative aging, BioSystems 91 (2008), pp. 262–267]. We also demonstrate how other types of growth curves arise if telomere shortening is mitigated by other cellular processes. We compare our results with published data sets from the biological literature.