An ecological perspective on marine reserves in prey–predator dynamics

This paper describes a prey–predator type fishery model with prey dispersal in a two-patch environment, one of which is a free fishing zone and other is a protected zone. The existence of possible steady states, along with their local stability, is discussed. A geometric approach is used to derive the sufficient conditions for global stability of the system at the positive equilibrium. Relative size of the reserve is considered as control in order to study optimal sustainable yield policy. Subsequently, the optimal system is derived and then solved numerically using an iterative method with Runge–Kutta fourth-order scheme. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the importance of marine reserve in fisheries management. It is noted that the marine protected area enables us to protect and restore multi-species ecosystem. The results illustrate that dynamics of the system is extremely interesting if simultaneous effects of a regulatory mechanism like marine reserve is coupled with harvesting effort. It is observed that the migration of the resource, from protected area to unprotected area and vice versa, is playing an important role towards the standing stock assessment in both the areas which ultimately control the harvesting efficiency and enhance the fishing stock up to some extent.     

Dynamical behaviour of a two-predator model with prey refuge

A three-component model consisting on one-prey and two-predator populations is considered with a Holling type II response function incorporating a constant proportion of prey refuge. We also consider the competition among predators for their food (prey) and shelter. The essential mathematical features of the model have been analyzed thoroughly in terms of stability and bifurcations arising in some selected situations. Threshold values for some parameters indicating the feasibility and stability conditions of some equilibria are determined. The range of significant parameters under which the system admits different types of bifurcations is investigated. Numerical illustrations are performed in order to validate the applicability of the model under consideration.     

Research Symposium—Aberdeen

ABSTRACT

Background: Climate change may increase the risk of biological invasions. However, current knowledge of this interaction is limited.

Aims: We aimed to quantify (1) the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of invasive plant species in Spain, (2) the importance of the area of origin of such species and (3) the vulnerability of different biogeographic provinces to future changes in climatic suitability for invaders.

Methods: We applied six methods of species distribution modelling to assess the variation of climatically suitable areas for 40 alien plants. We developed a Potential Area Change Index and used it as the response variable in modelling for three future emissions scenarios and three global circulation models over three time periods. The area of origin and biogeographic province in Spain were also considered.

Results: We found a highly specific response for each plant species rather than a clear trend for the entire set of species. Predicted climate suitability increased over higher emission scenarios and longer projected time lags. Neotropical species showed the greatest potential climatic range expansion. We detected a strong interaction between the geographic origin of a species and the biogeographic province.

Conclusions: Special attention should be given to the areas where aridification of climate is projected and where introduced neotropical species are likely to expand their range. Future work should develop accurate species-specific approaches that allow the management invasive plant species.     

The role of forest residues in the accounting for the global warming potential of bioenergy

Bioenergy makes up a significant portion of the global primary energy pie, and its production from modernized technology is foreseen to substantially increase. The climate neutrality of biogenic CO₂ emissions from bioenergy grown from sustainably managed biomass resource pools has recently been questioned. The temporary change caused in atmospheric CO₂ concentration from biogenic carbon fluxes was found to be largely dependent on the length of biomass rotation period. In this work, we also show the importance of accounting for the unutilized biomass that is left to decompose in the resource pool and how the characterization factor for the climate impact of biogenic CO₂ emissions changes whether residues are removed for bioenergy or not. With the case of Norwegian Spruce biomass grown in Norway, we found that significantly more biogenic CO₂ emissions should be accounted towards contributing to global warming potential when residues are left in the forest. For a 100‐year time horizon, the global warming potential bio factors suggest that between 44 and 62% of carbon‐flux, neutral biogenic CO₂ emissions at the energy conversion plant should be attributed to causing equivalent climate change potential as fossil‐based CO₂ emissions. For a given forest residue extraction scenario, the same factor should be applied to the combustion of any combination of stem and forest residues. Life cycle analysis practitioners should take these impacts into account and similar region/species specific factors should be developed.     

Lignicolous freshwater fungi along a north–south latitudinal gradient in the Asian/Australian region; can we predict the impact of global warming on biodiversity and function?

Fungi play a key role in decomposition of submerged wood in streams, breaking down lignocelluloses and releasing nutrients, and are important in ecosystem functioning. These wood decay fungi are known as freshwater lignicolous fungi and are usually studied by collecting submerged woody litter, followed by incubation in a moist chamber. This review explains what are freshwater lignicolous fungi, their decay mechanisms, roles and physiological attributes. Asian/Australasian lignicolous freshwater fungi have been relatively well-surveyed and enable an account of their distribution along a latitudinal transect. Unlike freshwater leaf-dwelling fungi their diversity in water bodies is greater towards the Equator which suggests they are important for decaying submerged wood in the tropics. Riparian vegetation, disturbances such as pollution, streams drying and study methods, may all affect the diversity of freshwater lignicolous fungi, however, the overall trend is a higher diversity in the tropics and subtropics. Climate changes together with increasing deposition of woody debris from human activities, and alteration of environmental factors (such as water pollution, and dam building) will impact freshwater lignicolous fungi. Changing diversity, structure and activities of freshwater fungal communities can be expected, which will significantly impact on aquatic ecosystems, particularly on nutrient and carbon cycles. There is a great opportunity to monitor changes in freshwater fungi communities along latitudinal (north to south) and habitat gradients (from human disturbed to natural habitats), and study ecological thresholds and consequences of such changes, particularly its feedback on nutrient and carbon cycles in freshwater systems.     

Analysis of multitemperature isothermal titration calorimetry data at very low c: Global beats van't Hoff

Isothermal titration calorimetry data for very low c (≡K[M]₀) must normally be analyzed with the stoichiometry parameter n fixed — at its known value or at any reasonable value if the system is not well characterized. In the latter case, ΔH° (and hence n) can be estimated from the T-dependence of the binding constant K, using the van't Hoff (vH) relation. An alternative is global or simultaneous fitting of data at multiple temperatures. In this Note, global analysis of low-c data at two temperatures is shown to estimate ΔH° and n with double the precision of the vH method.     

Multidimensional biases,gaps and uncertainties in global plant occurrence information

Plants are a hyperdiverse clade that plays a key role in maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes as well as human livelihoods. Biases, gaps and uncertainties in plant occurrence information remain a central problem in ecology and conservation, but these limitations remain largely unassessed globally. In this synthesis, we propose a conceptual framework for analysing gaps in information coverage, information uncertainties and biases in these metrics along taxonomic, geographical and temporal dimensions, and apply it to all c. 370 000 species of land plants. To this end, we integrated 120 million point‐occurrence records with independent databases on plant taxonomy, distributions and conservation status. We find that different data limitations are prevalent in each dimension. Different metrics of information coverage and uncertainty are largely uncorrelated, and reducing taxonomic, spatial or temporal uncertainty by filtering out records would usually come at great costs to coverage. In light of these multidimensional data limitations, we discuss prospects for global plant ecological and biogeographical research, monitoring and conservation and outline critical next steps towards more effective information usage and mobilisation. Our study provides an empirical baseline for evaluating and improving global floristic knowledge, along with a conceptual framework that can be applied to study other hyperdiverse clades.     

Drought-induced dynamics of carbon and water use efficiency of global grasslands from 2000 to 2011

Drought is frequently recorded as a result of climate warming and elevated concentration of greenhouse gases, which affect the carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. To identify the drought in grassland ecosystems and to determine how such drought affects grassland ecosystems in terms of carbon and water cycles across the globe, this study evaluated the drought conditions of global grassland ecosystems from 2000 to 2011 on the basis of the remotely sensed Drought Severity Index (DSI) data. The temporal dynamics of grassland carbon use efficiency (CUE) and water use efficiency (WUE), as well as their correlations with DSI, were also investigated at the global scale. Results showed that 57.04% of grassland ecosystems experienced a dry trend over this period. In general, most grassland ecosystems in the northern hemisphere (N.H.) were in near normal condition, whereas those in the southern hemisphere (S.H.) experienced a clear drying and wetting trend, with the year 2005 regarded as the turning point. Grassland CUE increased continually despite the varied drought conditions over this period. By contrast, WUE increased in the closed shrublands and woody savannas but decreased in all the other grassland types. The drought conditions affected the carbon and water use mainly by influencing the primary production and evapotranspiration of grass through photosynthesis and transpiration process. The CUE and WUE of savannas was most sensitive to droughts among all the grassland types. The areas of grassland DSI that showed significant correlations with CUE and WUE were 52.92% and 22.11% of the total grassland areas, respectively. Overall, droughts sufficiently explained the dynamics of grassland CUE, especially in the S.H. In comparison with grassland CUE, the grassland WUE was less sensitive to drought conditions at the global scale.     

首发缺血性脑卒中患者血清Hcy和EPO水平的变化及临床意义

目的:探究首发缺血性脑卒中患者血清同型半胱氨酸(Hcy)和红细胞生成素(EPO)水平的变化和意义。方法:于2013年10月-2015年4月我科收治的首发缺血性脑卒中患者中随机选取98例作为观察组,另选取同期健康体检者98例作为对照组,检测患者的血小板、血浆纤维蛋白原(Fib)以及血白细胞水平,比较两组血清Hcy、EPO、血小板、Fib及血白细胞水平,使用Logistic回归分析法评价缺血性脑卒中病发的危险因素,采用Spearman法对血清Hcy与EPO间相关性进行分析。结果:观察组的Hcy(23.52±12.15)m IU/L与EPO(34.61±11.25)m IU/L水平显著高于对照组的(10.57±2.18)m IU/L、(17.54±5.83)m IU/L;观察组血小板、血浆纤维蛋白原(fibrinogen,Fib)及血白细胞水平均高于对照组;差异均有统计学意义(均P0.05)。经Logistic回归分析法分析可知,Hcy为缺血性脑卒中病发的独立因素,经Spearman相关性分析显示,首发缺血性脑卒中患者EPO水平与Hcy呈正相关。结论:缺血性脑卒中病发与血清Hcy和EPO水平升高密切相关,且Hcy是导致缺血性脑卒中病发的高危因素。     

尿液作为新型生物标志物来源的探索

机体各种变化是生物标志物研究的核心内容.因为机体固有的稳态调控机制,在血液中早期产生的变化容易被清除.而在尿液中不存在稳态调控机制,允许容纳更多的变化因素存在.尤其在疾病发生的早期阶段,从尿液中更有可能发现新型的早期生物标志物.在尿液生物标志物研究中,亦应当考虑药物的影响.使用尿液生物标志物研究路线图,能够有效规避各种影响因素对于尿液生物标志物研究的干扰;同时,结合膜处理新技术,有利于经济、高效地大规模收集尿液样本,促进尿液生物标志物的大规模研究.另外,本文介绍了最容易在尿液中体现出变化的肾脏疾病生物标志物的研究进展.尿液生物标志物的研究,将赋予人类在疾病预防、诊断、治疗及预后监测等诸多方面实现更多进步的可能性.