Evaluating the effects of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution in the Italian peninsula

Question: What is the effect of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution in the Italian peninsula? Location: Italian peninsula. Methods: Regression tree analysis, Random Forest, generalized additive model and geostatistical methods were compared to identify the best model for quantifying the effect of climate change on tree species distribution and abundance. Future potential species distribution, richness, local colonization, local extinction and species turnover were modelled according to two scenarios (A2 and B1) for 2050 and 2080. Results: Robust Random Forest proved to be the best statistical model to predict the potential distribution of tree species abundance. Climate change could lead to a shift in tree species distribution towards higher altitudes and a reduction of forest cover. Pinus sylvestris and Tilia cordata may be considered at risk of local extinction, while the other species could find potential suitable areas at the cost of a rearrangement of forest community composition and increasing competition. Conclusions: Geographical and topographical regional characteristics can have a noticeable influence on the impact of predicted climate change on forest ecosystems within the Mediterranean basin. It would be highly beneficial to create a standardized and harmonized European forest inventory in order to evaluate, at high resolution, the effect of climate change on forest ecosystems, identify regional differences and develop specific adaptive management strategies and plans.     

Long-term population trends of endangered Hawaiian waterbirds

We analyzed long-term winter survey data (1956–2007) for three endangered waterbirds endemic to the Hawaiian Islands, the Hawaiian moorhen (Gallinula chloropus sandvicensis), Hawaiian coot (Fulica alai), and Hawaiian stilt (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni). Time series were analyzed by species–island combinations using generalized additive models, with alternative models compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC). The best model included three smoothers, one for each species. Our analyses show that all three of the endangered Hawaiian waterbirds have increased in population size over the past three decades. The Hawaiian moorhen increase has been slower in more recent years than earlier in the survey period, but Hawaiian coot and stilt numbers still exhibit steep increases. The patterns of population size increase also varied by island, although this effect was less influential than that between species. In contrast to earlier studies, we found no evidence that rainfall affects counts of the target species. Significant population increases were found on islands where most wetland protection has occurred (Oahu, Kauai), while weak or no increases were found on islands with few wetlands or less protection (Hawaii, Maui). Increased protection and management, especially on Maui where potential is greatest, would likely result in continued population gains, increasing the potential for meeting population recovery goals.     

Astrocytes are important mediators of A��-induced neurotoxicity and tau phosphorylation in primary culture

Alzheimer''s disease (AD) is pathologically characterised by the age-dependent deposition of β-amyloid (Aβ) in senile plaques, intraneuronal accumulation of tau as neurofibrillary tangles, synaptic dysfunction and neuronal death. Neuroinflammation, typified by the accumulation of activated microglia and reactive astrocytes, is believed to modulate the development and/or progression of AD. We have used primary rat neuronal, astrocytic and mixed cortical cultures to investigate the contribution of astrocyte-mediated inflammatory responses during Aβ-induced neuronal loss. We report that the presence of small numbers of astrocytes exacerbate Aβ-induced neuronal death, caspase-3 activation and the production of caspase-3-cleaved tau. Furthermore, we show that astrocytes are essential for the Aβ-induced tau phosphorylation observed in primary neurons. The release of soluble inflammatory factor(s) from astrocytes accompanies these events, and inhibition of astrocyte activation with the anti-inflammatory agent, minocycline, reduces astrocytic inflammatory responses and the associated neuronal loss. Aβ-induced increases in caspase-3 activation and the production of caspase-3-truncated tau species in neurons were reduced when the astrocytic response was attenuated with minocycline. Taken together, these results show that astrocytes are important mediators of the neurotoxic events downstream of elevated Aβ in models of AD, and suggest that mechanisms underlying pro-inflammatory cytokine release might be an important target for therapy.     

Incorporating Inter‐item Correlations in Item Response Data Analysis

This paper concerns with the analysis of item response data, which are usually measured on a rating scale and are therefore ordinal. These study items tended to be highly inter‐correlated. Rasch models, which convert ordinal categorical scales into linear measurements, are widely used in ordinal data analysis. In this paper, we improve the current methodology in order to incorporate inter‐item correlations. We have advocated the latent variable approach for this purpose, in combination with generalized estimating equations to estimate the Rasch model parameters. The data on a study of families of lung cancer patients demonstrate the utility of our methods.     

Behavioral testing of antidepressant compounds: an analysis of crossover design for correlated binary data

The differential reinforcement of low-rate 72 seconds schedule (DRL-72) is a standard behavioral test procedure for screening potential antidepressant compounds. The protocol for the DRL-72 experiment, proposed by Evenden et al. (1993), consists of using a crossover design for the experiment and one-way ANOVA for the statistical analysis. In this paper we discuss the choice of several crossover designs for the DRL-72 experiment and propose to estimate the treatment effects using either generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) or generalized estimating equation (GEE) models for clustered binary data.     

Tau and GSK3β Dephosphorylations are Required for Regulating Pin1 Phosphorylation

Pin1 binds mitotically phosphorylated Thr231–Pro232 and Thr212–Pro213 sites on tau, and a Pin1 deficiency in mice leads to tau hyperphosphorylation. The aim of this study was to determine if the dephosphorylation or inhibition of tau and GSK3β phosphorylation induces the Pin1 phosphorylation. To test this, human SK-N-MC cells were stably transfected with a fusion gene containing neuron-specific enolase (NSE)-controlled APPsw gene(NSE/APPsw), to induce Aβ-42. The stable transfectants were then transiently transfected with NSE/Splice, lacking human tau (NSE/Splice), or NSE/hTau, containing human tau, into the cells. The NSE/Splice- and NSE/hTau-cells were then treated with lithium. We concluded that (i) there was more C99-β APP accumulation than C83-βAPP in APPsw-tansfectant and thereby promoted Aβ-42 production in transfectants. (ii) the inhibition of tau and GSK3β phosphorylations correlated with increase in Pin1 activation in NSE/hTau- cells. Thus, these observations suggest that Pin1 might have an inhibitive role in phosphorylating tau and GSK3β for protecting against Alzheimer’s disease.     

Big and tall parents have more sons: further generalizations of the Trivers-Willard hypothesis

This paper proposes the generalized Trivers-Willard hypothesis (gTWH), which suggests that parents who possess any heritable trait which increases male reproductive success at a greater rate than female reproductive success in a given environment will have a higher-than-expected offspring sex ratio, and parents who possess any heritable trait which increases female reproductive success at a greater rate than male reproductive success in a given environment will have a lower-than-expected offspring sex ratio. Since body size (height and weight) is a highly heritable trait which increases male (but not female) reproductive success, the paper hypothesizes that bigger and taller parents have more sons. The analysis of both surviving children and recent pregnancies among respondents of the National Child Development Survey and the British Cohort Survey largely supports the hypothesis.     

Smooth tests for the zero-inflated poisson distribution

In this article we construct three smooth goodness-of-fit tests for testing for the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution against general smooth alternatives in the sense of Neyman. We apply our tests to a data set previously claimed to be ZIP distributed, and show that the ZIP is not a good model to describe the data. At rejection of the null hypothesis of ZIP, the individual components of the test statistic, which are directly related to interpretable parameters in a smooth model, may be used to gain insight into an alternative distribution.     

Heat shock protein 90 indirectly regulates ERK activity by affecting Raf protein metabolism

Extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase (ERK) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of several nerve system diseases. As more and more kinases have been discovered to be the client proteins of the molecular chaperone Hsp90, the use of Hsp90 inhibitors to reduce abnormal kinase activity is a new treatment strategy for nerve system diseases. This study investigated the regulation of the ERK pathway by Hsp90. We showed that Hsp90 inhibitors reduce ERK phosphorylation without affecting the total ERK protein level. Further investigation showed that Raf, the UPstream kinase in the Ras-Raf-MEK-ERK pathway, forms a complex with Hsp90 and Hsp70. Treating cells with Hsp90 inhibitors facilitates Raf degradation,thereby down-regulating the activity of ERK.