A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

How does the cumulative impacts approach support Maritime Spatial Planning?

Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) needs to incorporate spatial information on human impacts. As human activities and uses increase in marine and coastal waters around the world, pressures in ecosystems are also increasing, leading to multiple adverse effects on different species and habitats. The European Directive on MSP aims to achieve an integrated approach to marine governance, whilst securing and maintaining the healthy status of marine and coastal waters, in accordance with the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. The latter requires Member States to develop assessments not only on pressures and impacts, but also on the state of the marine environment and then take measures towards reaching a Good Environmental Status by 2020.The Portuguese Maritime Spatial Plan – Plano de Ordenamento do Espaço Marítimo (POEM) was developed between 2009 and 2012. In 2014 a law establishing the Basis for the Spatial Planning and Management of the National Maritime Space was enacted and in 2015 the framework for the elaboration of a new national Maritime Spatial Plan, named Situation Plan, was established. Portugal will face, in the next five years, the challenge of planning and managing its marine space, whilst promoting its sustainable use and protection.This study adapted a cumulative effects assessment model to understand how the impacts from multiple threats affect the marine and coastal ecosystems and, how this information can be used to improve the management process. Information was gathered on intensity and distribution of activities and uses for the Portuguese continental subdivision marine area, quantified and mapped their cumulative impacts in marine ecosystems, and overlapped with the POEM. Results show that impacts are spreading from the coast up to the Contiguous Zone. Higher scores appear in Transitional and Coastal Waters in the north (Viana do Castelo/Figueira da Foz), centre (Peniche/Setúbal) and south (Lagos/Faro). In some areas with higher ranks, statutes of nature conservation are already in place, but potential activities may still occur on top of existing ones. This study shows that the adapted model is a helpful tool to clarify ocean planning, identify areas of potential conflicts among users and support the decision making process.     

Focal contacts of spreading platelets with the substratum

Contacts with glass substratum formed by the spreading rabbit platelets were examined by an antibody-exclusion method; monoclonal antibodies against 80 kD bovine serum protein were used. It was found that platelets form focal contacts in the course of spreading. The size of the largest focal contacts formed by platelets is smaller than that of the contacts formed by fibroblasts. The antibody-exclusion method revealed focal contacts of platelets much more clearly than interference reflection microscopy (IRM). The similarity of reactions involved in spreading platelets and of large nucleus-containing tissue cells is discussed.     

Temporal and spatial trends in heavy metal concentrations in the marine mussel Mytilus edulis from the Western Scheldt estuary (The Netherlands)

Since the first North Sea Conference (1984, Bremen), all countries bordering the North Sea made commitments to reduce discharge of hazardous substances into the North Sea. From Belgium and The Netherlands, large reductions (upto 90) in heavy metal emissions from land-based sources have been reported between 1985 and 2000. Recently, some studies in the Western Scheldt estuary (WS) have shown that total metal concentration in the water, sediments and suspended particles have decreased compared to levels in the 70s. However, data on aquatic organisms is still very limited and it is therefore difficult to confirm whether the reductions in pollution input and generally improving water quality in the WS have a corresponding impact on the levels of heavy metals in aquatic organisms. The current study measured metal concentrations in the soft tissues of mussels, Mytilus edulis (known to be good indicators of environmental metal pollution) during the period 1996–2002. Spatial (salinity and pollution gradients), temporal and seasonal variations were also studied. Results showed a down-stream decreasing trend for the metals studied (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) during all sampling campaigns. There was also a significant seasonal effect on tissue metal concentrations, with a peak observed around spring in both WS and the nearby less polluted Eastern Scheldt (ES). On temporal trends, a clear drop of metals in mussels was observed in the early 80s coinciding with the start of the efforts to reduce chemical pollution input into the North Sea. Since those early reductions, metal concentrations in mussels generally remained unchanged upto mid 90s. However, in recent times metal concentration in mussels have increased significantly, for example Cd in 2002 was almost 10 times the values in 1983 and similar to levels seen during the peak in the 70s. Other metals also increased in the 90s also reaching levels seen in the 70s. As there is no indication of recent increase in metal input into the estuary, we suggest that increased metal concentrations observed in mussels in recent years especially in the upper estuary are most likely a result of changes in physical and chemical speciation and metal bioavailability. Such changes may be caused by changes in some water quality parameters in the estuary (i.e. increased dissolved oxygen, concentration of organic matter), resulting in conditions that favour releases of sediment-bound metals into the water column. The relationship between metal content and season showed very similar annual profiles in the polluted WS and less polluted ES. Thus, seasonal variations in metal concentrations appear to be largely controlled by biological processes, while total body burdens are dependent on environmental levels and bioavailability.     

Temperature,deltamethrin-resistance status and performance measures of Plutella xylostella: complex responses of insects to environmental variables

1. Worldwide, the excessive use of insecticides has resulted in field-evolved insecticide-resistant populations of diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella. A deltamethrin-resistant DBM population from the field was divided into two subpopulations in the laboratory. One population (S-strain) was maintained with no further exposure to insecticides, whereas the other population (R-strain) was maintained under a regime of intermittent selection with deltamethrin. 2. Individuals from both strains were reared at constant temperatures in the range 10–35 °C in the absence of deltamethrin, and the effects of rearing temperature on various traits were investigated. At the time of experimentation, the R-strain was 20-fold more resistant to deltamethrin than the S-strain. 3. Temperature differentially affected developmental time, adult life span, pupal weight, and fecundity of both strains. Although both strains laid eggs after being reared at 10 °C, few of these eggs were fertile. The R-strain developed significantly faster than the S-strain. The integrated performance of the S-strain and R-strain was greatest at 25 and 15 °C, respectively. 4. The present study provides important information on the complexities of the outcomes of the interactions between ectotherms and temperature. Specifically, temperature-trait relationships may not be unimodal, and ectotherm genotypes (in this case insecticide-resistance status) and abiotic stresses can interact with unpredictable outcomes. 5. Current models predicting DBM population dynamics and relative abundance in different locations do not consider different thermal biologies of different genotypes. The present study shows the dramatic effects of environment on many parameters used in these models and will help to enhance their accuracy, and thus their utility.     

Isomeric lipid signatures reveal compartmentalized fatty acid metabolism in cancer

The cellular energy and biomass demands of cancer drive a complex dynamic between uptake of extracellular FAs and their de novo synthesis. Given that oxidation of de novo synthesized FAs for energy would result in net-energy loss, there is an implication that FAs from these two sources must have distinct metabolic fates; however, hitherto, all FAs have been considered part of a common pool. To probe potential metabolic partitioning of cellular FAs, cancer cells were supplemented with stable isotope-labeled FAs. Structural analysis of the resulting glycerophospholipids revealed that labeled FAs from uptake were largely incorporated to canonical (sn-) positions on the glycerol backbone. Surprisingly, labeled FA uptake also disrupted canonical isomer patterns of the unlabeled lipidome and induced repartitioning of n-3 and n-6 PUFAs into glycerophospholipid classes. These structural changes support the existence of differences in the metabolic fates of FAs derived from uptake or de novo sources and demonstrate unique signaling and remodeling behaviors usually hidden from conventional lipidomics.     

Epilogue — Demography and anthropology

As a conclusion, this paper reviews briefly the content of the volume. The wealth of demographic data has not been adequately exploited in anthropology; this is why this publication is valuable in showing attempts to apply demographic data in a variety of anthropological problems. This symposium has explored many interesting points which we recall here. Yet it has also opened up a whole range of further questions on the material presented as well as in this broad field. Several directions of research could be developed, for instance, testing among human populations, over long periods, the ecological thoughts of ecosystems evolving as a cascade of instabilities, rather than a succession of equilibrium states. Let us also recall the pervasive nature of demographic facts in topics such as the energy cycle or the genetic structure and evolution of human populations.