A management policy for sika deer based on sex-specific hunting

We consider here a management policy for a sika deer (Cervus nippon) population in the eastern part of Hokkaido. Deer populations are characterized by a large intrinsic rate of population increase, no significant density effects on population growth before population crash, and a relatively simple life history. Our goals of management for the deer population are (1) to avoid irruption with severe damage to agriculture and forestry, (2) to avoid the risk of extinction of the deer population, and (3) to maintain a sustainable yield of deer. To make a robust program on the basis of uncertain information about the deer population, we consider three levels of relative population size and four levels of hunting pressures. We also take into consideration a critical level for extinction, an optimal level, and an irruption level. The hunting pressure for females is set to increase with the population size. We also recommend catching males if the population size is between the critical and optimal levels and catching females and males if the population size is larger than the optimal level. We must avoid cases of irruption or threatened population under various sets of uncertain parameter values. The simulation results suggest that management based on sex-specific hunting is effective to diminish the annual variation in hunting yield. Received: April 8, 1998 / Accepted: December 25, 1998     

Recovery of plant communities after ecological restoration of forestry‐drained peatlands

Ecological restoration is expected to reverse the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Due to the low number of well‐replicated field studies, the extent to which restoration recovers plant communities, and the factors underlying possible shortcomings, are not well understood even in medium term. We compared the plant community composition of 38 sites comprising pristine, forestry‐drained, and 5 or 10 years ago restored peatlands in southern Finland, with special interest in understanding spatial variation within studied sites, as well as the development of the numbers and the abundances of target species. Our results indicated a recovery of community composition 5–10 years after restoration, but there was significant heterogeneity in recovery. Plant communities farthest away from ditches were very similar to their pristine reference already 10 years after restoration. In contrast, communities in the ditches were as far from the target as the drained communities. The recovery appears to be characterized by a decline in the number and abundance of species typical to degraded conditions, and increase in the abundance of characteristic peatland species. However, we found no increase above the drained state in the number of characteristic peatland species. Our results suggest that there is a risk of drawing premature conclusions on the efficiency of ecological restoration with the current practice of short‐term monitoring. Our results also illustrate fine‐scale within‐site spatial variability in the degradation and recovery of the plant communities that should be considered when evaluating the success of restoration. Overall, we find the heterogeneous outcome of restoration observed here promising. However, low recovery in the number of characteristic species demonstrates the importance of prioritizing restoration sites, and addressing the uncertainty of recovery when setting restoration targets. It appears that it is easier to eradicate unwanted species than regain characteristic species by restoration.     

Silurian carbonate platforms and extinction events—ecosystem changes exemplified from Gotland, Sweden

Recent and ancient carbonate platforms are major marine ecosystems, built by various carbonate-secreting organisms with different sensitivity for environmental change. For this reason, carbonate platforms are excellent sensors for changes in contemporaneous marine environments. A variety of ecosystem changes in carbonate platforms have previously been recognised in the aftermath of mass extinction events. This paper addresses how two Silurian extinction events among graptolites, conodonts, and pentamerid brachiopods can be related to changes in the style of carbonate production and general evolution of low latitude carbonate platforms in a similar way as previously reported from the major five mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Strata formed on Gotland during the Mulde and Lau events share remarkably many similarities but are strikingly different in composition compared to other strata on the island. The event-related strata is characterised by the sudden appearance of widespread oolites, deviating reef composition, flat-pebble conglomerates, abundant micro- and macro-oncoids, stromatolites, and other microbial facies suggesting decreased bioturbation levels in contemporaneous shelf seas. Importantly, these changes can be tied to high-resolution biostratigraphic frameworks and global stable isotope excursions. The anomalous intervals may therefore be searched for elsewhere in order to test their regional or global significance.     

体内毒素浓度不相同的三维时变Volterra系统的持续生存

在环境容量很大且被污染的情形下,对体内毒素浓度不相同的三种群时变Volterra系统进行了研究,并给出了三维时变Volterra捕食系统弱平均持续生存与灭绝的条件。     

Metapopulation extinction risk: Dispersal’s duplicity

Metapopulation extinction risk is the probability that all local populations are simultaneously extinct during a fixed time frame. Dispersal may reduce a metapopulation’s extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate. By contrast, dispersal may raise a metapopulation’s extinction risk by reducing its average population density. Which effect prevails is controlled by habitat fragmentation. Dispersal in mildly fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation’s extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate without causing any appreciable drop in its average population density. By contrast, dispersal in severely fragmented habitat raises a metapopulation’s extinction risk because the rise in its average per-capita growth rate is more than offset by the decline in its average population density. The metapopulation model used here shows several other interesting phenomena. Dispersal in sufficiently fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation’s extinction risk to that of a constant environment. Dispersal between habitat fragments reduces a metapopulation’s extinction risk insofar as local environments are asynchronous. Grouped dispersal raises the effective habitat fragmentation level. Dispersal search barriers raise metapopulation extinction risk. Nonuniform dispersal may reduce the effective fraction of suitable habitat fragments below the extinction threshold. Nonuniform dispersal may make demographic stochasticity a more potent metapopulation extinction force than environmental stochasticity.     

The effect of gene drive on containment of transgenic mosquitoes

Mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever continue to be a major health problem through much of the world. Several new potential approaches to disease control utilize gene drive to spread anti-pathogen genes into the mosquito population. Prior to a release, these projects will require trials in outdoor cages from which transgenic mosquitoes may escape, albeit in small numbers. Most genes introduced in small numbers are very likely to be lost from the environment; however, gene drive mechanisms enhance the invasiveness of introduced genes. Consequently, introduced transgenes may be more likely to persist than ordinary genes following an accidental release. Here, we develop stochastic models to analyze the loss probabilities for several gene drive mechanisms, including homing endonuclease genes, transposable elements, Medea elements, the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia, engineered underdominance genes, and meiotic drive. We find that Medea and Wolbachia present the best compromise between invasiveness and containment for the six gene drive systems currently being considered for the control of mosquito-borne disease.     

Changes in land use and habitat availability affect the population genetic structure of Metrioptera roeselii (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae)

The impact of temporal changes in habitat availability and land use on the present genetic diversity of the grassland katydid species Metrioptera roeselii was investigated in an extensively used agricultural landscape (Lahn-Dill-Bergland, Germany) based on six microsatellite loci. By integrating spatial and temporal dimensions, this study contrasts to conventional approaches that usually record landscape changes at discrete points in time. Molecular data suggest little geographical substructuring of the species. Nevertheless, time-dependent effects on genetic diversity in terms of observed heterozygosity and allelic richness within subpopulations were detected by general linear models (GLM), explaining up to 82 and 13%, respectively. The results indicated that allelic richness was significantly reduced with higher rates of land-use change. Contrastingly, the level of heterozygosity even increased with increasing land-use change, if this rate increase was accompanied by a reduction in grassland amount, while with an increase of grassland amount the level of heterozygosity remained similar. Furthermore, depending on the study site, heterozygosity was differently affected by grassland age of sampled patches and of the surrounding. This is presumably induced by contrasting levels of heterozygosity in combination with differing modes of dispersal due to habitat availability and site-specific matrix effects. The loss of genetic diversity due to frequent land-use change might result in a reduced ability to adapt to landscape change, which is even more relevant in intensively used agricultural landscapes and in the course of climate change.     

Habitat destruction and the extinction debt revisited: The Allee effect

Habitat destruction, often caused by anthropogenic disturbance, can lead to the extinction of species at an unprecedented rate. It is important, therefore, to consider habitat destruction when assessing population viability. Another factor often ignored in population viability analysis, is the Allee effect that adds to the risk of populations already on the verge of extinction. Understanding the Allee effect on species dynamics and response to habitat destruction has intrinsic value in conservation prioritization. Here, the Allee effect was considered in a multi-species hierarchical competition model. Results showed that species persistence declines dramatically due to the Allee effect, and certain species become more susceptible to habitat destruction than others. Two extinction orders emerged under habitat destruction: either the best competitor becomes extinct first or the best colonizer first. The extinction debt and order, as well as the time lag between habitat destruction and species extinction, were found to be determined by species abundance and the intensity of the Allee effect.     

Boom means bust: interactions between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall and the processes threatening mammal species in arid Australia

We collated an environmental history for a 8580 km² study area in the Simpson Desert, Australia. Quantitative and qualitative data on climate, land-use, fire history and ecosystem dynamics were used to construct a chronology of processes threatening terrestrial mammal species. Over the last 150 years there has been the transition in land tenure from a hunter–gatherer economy to pastoralism, the loss of 11 mammal species, the cessation of small scale burning by Aboriginal people and the introduction of the fox and cat. Annual rainfall was highly variable and was influenced by the phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Irruptions of rodents, marked increases in the populations of native and introduced predators and extensive wildfires were associated with the La Niña phase of ENSO and occurred when rain-year (July–June) rainfall approached or exceeded the 90th percentile of the historical rainfall distribution. Large rainfall events in arid Australia have been viewed traditionally as the ‘boom’ times that benefit wildlife and pastoral production. However, because of hyper-predation and the risk of wildfire, we show that the years including and immediately following flooding rains should be identified as critical, or ‘bust’ periods for wildlife and conservation management. ENSO related climatic forecasts appear to be useful cues which can be incorporated into fire and predator management strategies in arid Australia. Studies such as this, which utilise a broad range of data types across extensive areas, can identify the timing and potential of threatening process not possible using contemporary studies alone.