The competitive dynamics of metapopulations subject to the Allee-like effect

It is well recognized that individuals of many species can benefit from the presence of conspecifics, a concept broadly referred to as the Allee effect. At the metapopulation level, there is an analogous but essentially different phenomenon called the Allee-like effect that leads to metapopulation extinction thresholds at low habitat occupancy. But so far not adequate attention has been paid to this phenomenon. In this paper, the Allee-like effect is introduced into a metapopulation model of one species and also that of a three-state two-species competitive system. Phase plane analysis is used to investigate the dynamics of these models. We demonstrate that the Allee-like effect alone could lead to multiple stable states in three-state two-species competitive systems at the metapopulation level, and the number of stable states decrease as the Allee-like effect becomes more severe. Severe Allee-like effects may make coexistence impossible and may even lead to the extinction of both species even if their initial habitat occupancies are high and suitable habitats are enough. It is especially noticeable that depending on their initial conditions one species may exclude the other one that subjects to a weaker Allee-like effect than the former, while the second species always excludes the first one when both species are assumed to be in the absence of the Allee-like effect. We also investigate the habitat destructive effect on the Allee-like system mentioned above. Research indicates that the existence of the Allee-like effect makes a metapopulation more susceptible to habitat destruction. All in all, the Allee-like effect is probably a destabilizing factor that, together with habitat destruction, would affect the continuous existence of species. These conclusions may have important implications for conservation and metacommunity organization.     

Can extinction rates be estimated without fossils?

There is considerable interest in the possibility of using molecular phylogenies to estimate extinction rates. The present study aims at assessing the statistical performance of the birth-death model fitting approach to estimate speciation and extinction rates by comparison to the approach considering fossil data. A simulation-based approach was used. The diversification of a large number of lineages was simulated under a wide range of speciation and extinction rate values. The estimators obtained with fossils performed better than those without fossils. In the absence of fossils (e.g. with a molecular phylogeny), the speciation rate was correctly estimated in a wide range of situations; the bias of the corresponding estimator was close to zero for the largest trees. However, this estimator was substantially biased when the simulated extinction rate was high. On the other hand the estimator of extinction rate was biased in a wide range of situations. Surprisingly, this bias was lesser with medium-sized trees. Some recommendations for interpreting results from a diversification analysis are given.     

Spatial dynamics of plant species in an agricultural landscape in the Netherlands

This study examined the changes in distribution patterns of 13 herbaceous plant species from 1998 to 2000 in ditch banks along the edges of arable fields in the Netherlands. The objective was to test if spatial dynamics could be related to spatial isolation and disturbance of habitat and to the dispersal and seed bank characteristics of the species. Knowledge of these relations should be used to increase the effectivity of agri-environmental schemes aiming at an increase of botanical diversity. All species frequently colonized empty patches and populations in occupied patches frequently went extinct. Most colonization events occurred within 50 m of conspecific source patches in the preceding year, but colonization events in patches at distances more than 200 m from conspecific source patches were also observed. The colonization probabilities decreased with isolation distance. For nine species this relation was statistically significant, after correction for year and habitat. The extinction probabilities increased with isolation. For only four species this relation was statistically significant. Both colonization and extinction probabilities were more often statistically significant related to isolation for species with transient seed banks than species with persistent seed banks. Implications for management options aiming at survival of plant species in fragmented landscapes are discussed.     

A botanical inventory of a tropical seasonal forest in Khao Yai National Park,Thailand: implications for fruit–frugivore interactions

The diversity of plants in tropical forests makes dietary studies of frugivores difficult. This paper provides a botanical inventory of a tropical seasonal forest community in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand. The forest is valuable from a conservation perspective because it is one of the last remaining intact forests in northeastern Thailand, and is an important refuge for many animal and plant species. A 4-ha inventory plot measuring 200 × 200 m was established and all plants greater than or equal to 10 cm in diameter at breast height (dbh) were measured and permanently labeled. We found 1610 stems belonging to 105 species, 76 genera and 35 families, with a combined basal area of 142.5 m². The community was dominated by species of Lauraceae, Cornaceae, Euphorbiaceae, Meliaceae, and Elaeocarpaceae. About one-third of the plant species (40 spp.) identified in this study were vulnerable to extinction because they were mostly dispersed by large frugivores, which were intolerant of human impact. If they disappear, these forests may become dominated by plant species that are dispersed by abiotic means and species with small-seeded fruits.     

Extinction risk of a meta-population: aggregation approach

Aggregation of variables of a complex mathematical model with realistic structure gives a simplified model which is more suitable than the original one when the amount of data for parameter estimation is limited. Here we explore use of a formula derived for a single unstructured population (canonical model) in predicting the extinction time for a population living in multiple habitats. In particular we focus multiple populations each following logistic growth with demographic and environmental stochasticities, and examine how the mean extinction time depends on the migration and environmental correlation. When migration rate and/or environmental correlation are very large or very small, we may express the mean extinction time exactly using the formula with properly modified parameters. When parameters are of intermediate magnitude, we generate a Monte Carlo time series of the population size for the realistic structured model, estimate the "effective parameters" by fitting the time series to the canonical model, and then calculate the mean extinction time using the formula for a single population. The mean extinction time predicted by the formula was close to those obtained from direct computer simulation of structured models. We conclude that the formula for an unstructured single-population model has good approximation capability and can be applicable in estimating the extinction risk of the structured meta-population model for a limited data set.     

Forest fragmentation effects on patch occupancy and population viability of herbaceous plant species

Habitat fragmentation is one of the major threats to species diversity. In this review, we discuss how the genetic and demographic structure of fragmented populations of herbaceous forest plant species is affected by increased genetic drift and inbreeding, reduced mate availability, altered interactions with pollinators, and changed environmental conditions through edge effects. Reported changes in population genetic and demographic structure of fragmented plant populations have, however, not resulted in large-scale extinction of forest plants. The main reason for this is very likely the long-term persistence of small and isolated forest plant populations due to prolonged clonal growth and long generation times. Consequently, the persistence of small forest plant populations in a changing landscape may have resulted in an extinction debt, that is, in a distribution of forest plant species reflecting the historical landscape configuration rather than the present one. In some cases, fragmentation appears to affect ecosystem integrity rather than short-term population viability due to the opposition of different fragmentation-induced ecological effects. We finally discuss extinction and colonization dynamics of forest plant species at the regional scale and suggest that the use of the metapopulation concept, both because of its heuristic power and conservation applications, may be fruitful.     

A quasispecies on a moving oasis

A population evolving in an inhomogeneous environment will adapt differently to different areas. We study the conditions under which such a population can maintain adaptations to a particular region when that region is not stationary, but can move. In particular, we consider a haploid population living near a moving favorable patch ("oasis") in the middle of a large "desert." At one genetic locus, individuals may have one of a few gene sequences that convey an advantage while in the oasis at the cost of a disadvantage in the desert. The distribution of genetic states in the population, possibly localized in genome space around the oasis-adapted genotypes, is known as a quasispecies. We find that the ratio of oasis-adapted individuals to desert-adapted ones exhibits sharp transitions at particular oasis velocities. We calculate an extinction velocity, and a switching velocity above which the dominance switches from the oasis-adapted genotype to the desert-adapted one. This switching velocity is analogous to the quasispecies mutational error threshold. Above this velocity, the population cannot maintain adaptations to the properties of the oasis.     

Explaining the global biodiversity gradient: energy, area, history and natural selection

Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity is used to investigate the decline in species richness from the tropics to the poles. On this basis, biodiversity should correlate with productivity or climate (there is strong statistical evidence for this), with the latitudinal width of the continents (insufficiently investigated as yet), and with the speciation rate (which may not vary in such a way as to produce a planetary gradient). According to the neutral, model biodiversity will vary with the area of the “metacommunity”: it is suggested that at higher latitudes species disperse most readily east–west, within their climatic belt, but that the relatively uniform temperature across the intertropical belt allows isotropic dispersal there. Metacommunities within the tropics may therefore be an order of magnitude larger than those at other latitudes. This could explain the extra bulge in the gradient in the tropics. It is further possible that long-term and cyclical climate change generates a tropic-pole gradient. Niche assembly models will also explain tropical biodiversity, but the enhanced division of habitat may be the result, not the cause, of the species richness. The neutrality–competition debate in ecology closely parallels the neutrality–natural selection debate in evolution and may be equally hard to resolve.

Zusammenfassung

Hubbells neutrale Theorie der Biodiversität wird genutzt um den Rückgang des Artenreichtums von den Tropen zu den Polen zu untersuchen. Auf dieser Basis sollte die Biodiversität mit der Produktivität oder dem Klima (es gibt überzeugende statistische Beweise dafür) korrelieren, mit der Ausdehnung der Kontinente in geografischer Breite (bisher unzureichend untersucht) und mit der Artbildungsrate (welche möglicherweise nicht in der Weise variiert, als dass sie einen planetarischen Gradienten erzeugen kann).Dem neutralen Model entsprechend wird die Biodiversität mit dem Areal der “Metagemeinschaft” variieren. Es wird behauptet, dass sich Arten in höheren Breiten am leichtesten innerhalb ihres klimatischen Gürtels in Ost–West-Richtung ausbreiten, dass aber die relativ gleichmäßige Temperatur des innertropischen Gürtels dort eine isotrope Ausbreitung erlaubt.Metagemeinschaften in den Tropen können daher um eine Größenordnung größer sein als in anderen Breiten. Dies könnte die zusätzliche Ausdehnung des Gradienten in den Tropen erklären. Es ist darüber hinaus möglich, dass langfristige und zyklische Klimaveränderungen einen Gradienten von den Tropen zu den Polen generieren. Modelle der Nischenanordnung erklären ebenfalls tropische Biodiversität. Die verstärkte Habitataufteilung könnte jedoch das Ergebnis und nicht der Grund des Artenreichtums sein. Die Neutralitäts–Konkurrenz-Debatte in der Ökologie ähnelt sehr der Neutralitäts–Selektions-Debatte in der Evolution und mag ähnlich schwer zu lösen sein.     

The extent of extinctions of mammals on islands

Many of the world's oceanic and oceanic-like islands possessed endemic mammal faunas before they were colonized by humans. These faunas, unbalanced and impoverished compared to continental faunas, usually lacked large mammalian carnivores. In virtually all cases, the arrival of humans and their domesticants and commensals on these islands is related to the extirpation of large numbers of endemic insular mammals. These extinction events affected at least 27% of autochthonous mammal species on the world's oceanic and oceanic-like islands. This percentage rises the 35% when volant mammals are excluded. This reduction in the natural biodiversity brought about the disappearance of several unique biological types that apparently never existed on the continents.