新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊土地覆被变化及驱动力分析

针对年际间的土地覆被变化的空间分异特性及驱动机理解析问题,采用Python和R语言构建了土地覆盖变化的时空动态概率模型和驱动力综合分析模型,实现了21世纪以来"新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊(NECBEC)"土地覆盖时空动态变化特征及驱动机理的定量分析。研究结果表明,在2001—2017年间,NECBEC的土地覆盖变化总体呈现出三增(草地、耕地和建设用地分别增加11457万hm~2、841万hm~2和396万hm~2)和三减(林地、水域和湿地、和未利用地分别减少7409万hm~2、4659万hm~2和626万hm~2)趋势。其中,未利用地和林地主要转换为草地,而草地则主要转为林地和耕地。建设用地年际增加幅度最大,其新增面积中耕地贡献达到50%。另外,自2013年"一带一路"倡议启动以来,NECBEC区域的各种土地覆盖类型之间的相互转换幅度呈现明显增加趋势,而NECBEC沿线国家之间的社会经济发展综合水平集聚性总体上呈减弱趋势,其中综合得分高高聚集区和低低聚集区分别集中在西欧和中亚北部。NECBEC区域的社会经济发展对耕地和建设用地的时空差异性尤为显著。土地覆盖类型在面积变化量和变化速率上,均具有明显的时空分异性。不同的经济发展综合水平对LUCC的类型演替、格局变化和驱动效应不同。     

长期模拟增温对矮嵩草草甸土壤理化性质与植物化学成分的影响

采用国际冻原计划(ITEX)长期模拟增温试验装置,研究了退化和未退化的矮嵩草草甸上植物化学成分(粗灰分、中性洗涤纤维、酸性洗涤纤维、木质素、粗脂肪、粗蛋白和无氮浸出物)含量、土壤环境因子(速效氮、速效钾、速效磷、全氮、全磷、全钾、有机质和土壤含水量)的变化及其相互关系。结果表明:长期模拟增温明显影响了土壤理化性质和3个功能群植物的化学成分含量(P0.05);在退化的矮嵩草草甸上长期模拟增温,两者存在明显的交互效应(P0.05),增温增加了植物可直接利用的土壤养分含量,但土壤中有机质、全氮、全磷、全钾和含水量均低于其各自对照,增温降低了优良牧草(禾草和莎草)粗脂肪、粗蛋白和无氮浸出物的含量,增加了粗灰分、中性洗涤纤维、酸性洗涤纤维和木质素含量,降低了牧草消化率;长期模拟增温条件下,土壤理化性质对植物化学成分的贡献大小依次是:速效氮有机质含水量速效钾。典型对应分析表明,长期模拟增温进一步巩固了未退化矮嵩草草甸禾草类和莎草类优势牧草的地位,杂类草逐渐衰退;而在退化矮嵩草草甸样地上长期模拟增温,群落优势种的优势度下降,加剧了草地退化。     

半干旱区垄沟集雨系统点尺度土壤水分动态随机模拟

为揭示土壤水分动态对半干旱区垄沟集雨系统水文和生态过程的影响机理,基于Laio土壤水分动态随机模型(Laio模型),利用中国气象局定西干旱气象与生态环境试验基地2012—2013年垄沟集雨燕麦生长季根系层土壤水分观测数据及2000—2015年日降水资料,分析不同覆盖材料(生物可降解膜、普通塑料膜和土壤结皮)和不同沟垄比(30∶60,45∶60和60∶60cm)对生长季燕麦根系层土壤水分动态的影响,研究点尺度土壤水分概率密度函数特征,并对模型涉及参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明:研究区年降水的季节分配极不均匀,主要集中在5—10月份,占总降雨次数的66.6%;年降雨量的85.32%来源于10 mm的降雨,以暴雨为主;近16年研究区降水量呈缓慢增长趋势。生物可降解膜垄(BMR)、普通地膜垄(CMR)和土垄(SR)临界产流降雨量分别为1.35、0.95 mm和5.31 mm,平均集水效率分别为87.892%、94.203%和27.488%;在燕麦生长季,BMR和CMR的土壤含水量显著大于SR,SR的土壤含水量显著大于传统平作,各处理土壤含水量均服从正态分布;通过Laio模型模拟得到的各处理土壤水分概率密度函数的曲线特征(峰值及其位置、90%置信区间)及数字特征(期望、方差)与观测结果基本一致,CM指数均大于0.5,且可将集雨垄径流量作为单次降水的随机事件处理,说明该模型可应用于垄沟集雨系统土壤水分概率密度函数的模拟,为半干旱区农田水分高效利用管理提供理论依据。     

Multi‐surveyor capture‐mark‐recapture as a powerful tool for butterfly population monitoring in the pre‐imaginal stage

For many elusive insect species, which are difficult to cover by standard monitoring schemes, innovative survey methods are needed to gain robust data on abundance and population trends. We suggest a monitoring of overwintering larvae for the endangered nymphalid butterfly Limenitis reducta. We tested different removal and capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) approaches in a field study in the “Alb‐Donau” region, Germany. Classical removal and CMR studies require movement of the organisms under study, but in our approach, we replaced movement of the study organisms by random movement of multiple different surveyors. We tested the validity of the approach by comparing detection frequencies from our field data with simulated detections. Our results indicate that multi‐surveyor removal/CMR techniques are suitable for estimating abundance of overwintering L. reducta larvae. Depending on surveyor experience, the average detection probability ranged between 16% for novices and 35% for experts. The uncertainty of population estimates increased with a decrease in personnel expenditure. Estimated larval densities on a spruce clear‐cut varied between one and three individuals per 100 m², probably related to habitat conditions. We suggest a CMR approach with three to four trained surveyors for the monitoring of L. reducta populations in the overwintering stage. Compared with previous sampling methods, our approach is a powerful tool with clear advantages: long survey period, estimates of the absolute population size accompanied by uncertainty measures, and estimates of overwinter mortality. The proposed method can be adapted and used for several different butterfly species, other insect taxa with specific immobile life stages, and some sessile organisms, for example, elusive plants, fungi, or corals.     

Anthropogenic driven range expansion of Asian elephant Elephas maximus in an agricultural landscape and its consequences in South West Bengal,India

Alterations of the geographical ranges of animals have become a reason for interactions with humans, leading to various consequences. We describe the pattern of range expansion of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) and implications for human-elephant interactions in the agricultural landscape of South West Bengal, India. We enquired about past and current sightings of Asian elephants from local people to gather information on range expansion from the 1950 s to 2018. We also collected the records of human deaths and injuries by elephants from 2010 to 2018 from the records of the Forest Department. We employed an occupancy framework to understand the probability of the occurrence of elephants in the landscape from 2010 to 2018. The range of elephants in the landscape increased from ∼ 1200 km² in the 1950–60 s to ∼ 13200 km² by 2010–18. The calculated probability of use of grid cells was 36 % and the forest edge had a high influence on the space usage by the elephants. Elephants occurred in an average of 26 grid cells per month, and the number of grid cells with elephants did not differ between the months. A total of 640 attacks on humans occurred, which significantly varied between the years. The probability of elephant occurrence in a grid cell was the major determinant factor for the elephant attacks on humans. Although people respect elephants, there is a sense of intolerance towards them if they enter the crop fields, owing to the small land holdings and the incapacity to endure the monetary losses of the farmers.     

Confidence intervals for the difference in the success rates of two treatments in the analysis of correlated binary responses

In clinical studies, we often compare the success rates of two treatment groups where post‐treatment responses of subjects within clusters are usually correlated. To estimate the difference between the success rates, interval estimation procedures that do not account for this intraclass correlation are likely inappropriate. To address this issue, we propose three interval procedures by direct extensions of recently proposed methods for independent binary data based on the concepts of design effect and effective sample size used in sample surveys. Each of them is then evaluated with four competing variance estimates. We also extend three existing methods recommended for complex survey data using different weighting schemes required for those three existing methods. An extensive simulation study is conducted for the purposes of evaluating and comparing the performance of the proposed methods in terms of coverage and expected width. The interval estimation procedures are illustrated using three examples in clinical and social science studies. Our analytic arguments and numerical studies suggest that the methods proposed in this work may be useful in clustered data analyses.     

Further Results in Estimating the Classification Error in Discriminance Analysis

Basing on the approach by McLachlan (1977) a procedure for the conditional and common error estimation of the classification error in discriminance analysis is described for k ≧ 2 classes. As a rapid procedure for large sample sizes and feature numbers, a modification of the resubstitution method is proposed being favourable with respect to computing time. Both methods provide useful estimations for the probability of misclassification. In calculating the weighting function w, deviations from preconditions known from the MANOVA such as the skewness, the truncation or the inequality of the covariance matrices, hardly play any role; it appears that only a variation of the sample sizes of the classes substantially influences the weighting functions. The error rates of the tested error estimation methods likewise in effect depend on the sample sizes of the classes. Violations of the mentioned preconditions in the form described above result in different variations of the error estimates, depending on these sample sizes. A comparison between error estimation and allocation relative to a simulated population demonstrates the goodness of the used error estimation procedures.