Combined Psychophysiological Assessment of ADHD: A Pilot Study of Bayesian Probability Approach Illustrated by Appraisal of ADHD in Female College Students

Manifestations of ADHD are observed at both psychological and physiological levels and assessed via various psychometric, EEG, and imaging tests. However, no test is 100% accurate in its assessment of ADHD. This study introduces a stochastic assessment combining psychometric tests with previously reported (Consistency Index) and newly developed (Alpha Blockade Index) EEG-based physiological markers of ADHD. The assessment utilizes classical Bayesian inference to refine after each step the probability of ADHD of each individual. In a pilot study involving six college females with ADHD and six matched controls, the assessment achieved correct classification for all ADHD and non-ADHD participants. In comparison, the classification of ADHD versus non-ADHD participants was < 85% for any one of the tests separately. The procedure significantly improved the score separation between ADHD versus non-ADHD groups. The final average probabilities for ADHD were 76% for the ADHD group and 8% for the control group. These probabilities correlated (r = .87) with the Brown ADD scale and (r = .84) with the ADHD-Symptom Inventory used for the screening of the participants. We conclude that, although each separate test was not completely accurate, a combination of several tests classified correctly all ADHD and all non-ADHD participants. The application of the proposed assessment is not limited to the specific tests used in this study--the assessment represents a general paradigm capable of accommodating a variety of ADHD tests into a single diagnostic assessment.     

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Bird Abundance and Trends From Historical Count Data

Abstract: The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches for estimating annual abundance or indices and population trends from point-count data. We compared indices of abundance estimated as annual means of counts and from a mixed-Poisson model to abundance estimates from a count-removal model with 3 time intervals and a distance model with 3 distance bands. We compared trend estimates calculated from an autoregressive, exponential model fit to annual abundance estimates from the above methods and also by estimating trend directly by treating year as a continuous covariate in the mixed-Poisson model. We produced estimates for 6 forest songbirds based on an average of 621 and 459 points in 2 physiographic areas from 1997 to 2004. There was strong evidence that detection probabilities varied among species and years. Nevertheless, there was good overall agreement across trend estimates from the 5 methods for 9 of 12 comparisons. In 3 of 12 comparisons, however, patterns in detection probabilities potentially confounded interpretation of uncorrected counts. Estimates of detection probabilities differed greatly between removal and distance models, likely because the methods estimated different components of detection probability and the data collection was not optimally designed for either method. Given that detection probabilities often vary among species, years, and observers investigators should address detection probability in their surveys, whether it be by estimation of probability of detection and abundance, estimation of effects of key covariates when modeling count as an index of abundance, or through design-based methods to standardize these effects.     

Lipid modulation of ion channels through specific binding sites

Ion channel conformational changes within the lipid membrane are a key requirement to control ion passage. Thus, it seems reasonable to assume that lipid composition should modulate ion channel function. There is increasing evidence that this implicates not just an indirect consequence of the lipid influence on the physical properties of the membrane, but also specific binding of selected lipids to certain protein domains. The result is that channel function and its consequences on excitability, contractility, intracellular signaling or any other process mediated by such channel proteins, could be subjected to modulation by membrane lipids. From this it follows that development, age, diet or diseases that alter lipid composition should also have an influence on those cellular properties. The wealth of data on the non-annular lipid binding sites in potassium channel from Streptomyces lividans (KcsA) makes this protein a good model to study the modulation of ion channel structure and function by lipids. The fact that this protein is able to assemble into clusters through the same non-annular sites, resulting in large changes in channel activity, makes these sites even more interesting as a potential target to develop lead compounds able to disrupt such interactions and hopefully, to modulate ion channel function. This Article is Part of a Special Issue Entitled: Membrane Structure and Function: Relevance in the Cell's Physiology, Pathology and Therapy.     

A laboratory-based method to measure relative pesticide and spray oil efficacy against broad mite, Polyphagotarsonemus latus (Banks)(Acari: Tarsonemidae)

Six pesticides and two spray oils were tested against Polyphagotarsonemus latus. The chemicals were evaluated under laboratory conditions, requiring the development of a novel bioassay method, which is reported here. The pesticide toxicities fell into three distinct groups, namely abamectin, conventional pesticides and oils. The relative pesticide toxicities at the LC₅₀ level were abamectin 4.9×10^-8 g ai l^-1, endosulfan 1.1×10^-3 g ai l^-1, fenpyroximate 2.3×10^-3 g ai l^-1, pyridaben 4.1×10^-3 g ai l^-1, tebufenpyrad 4.4×10^-3 g ai l^-1, dicofol 4.5×10^-3 g ai l^-1, petroleum spray oil 3.4×10^-1 g ai l^-1 and canola oil 4.1×10^-1 g ai l^-1. The calculation of the LC_99.9 values allows for resistance monitoring in P. latus and the suggested discriminating concentrations are abamectin 1.0×10^-4 g ai l^-1; endosulfan, pyridaben and dicofol 1.0×10^-1 g ai l^-1 fenpyroximate and tebufenpyrad 5.0×10^-1 g ai l^-1.     

Efficient,Noninvasive Genetic Sampling for Monitoring Reintroduced Wolves

ABSTRACT Traditional methods of monitoring gray wolves (Canis lupus) are expensive and invasive and require extensive efforts to capture individual animals. Noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) is an alternative method that can provide data to answer management questions and complement already-existing methods. In a 2-year study, we tested this approach for Idaho gray wolves in areas of known high and low wolf density. To focus sampling efforts across a large study area and increase our chances of detecting reproductive packs, we visited 964 areas with landscape characteristics similar to known wolf rendezvous sites. We collected scat or hair samples from 20% of sites and identified 122 wolves, using 8–9 microsatellite loci. We used the minimum count of wolves to accurately detect known differences in wolf density. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian single-session population estimators performed similarly and accurately estimated the population size, compared with a radiotelemetry population estimate, in both years, and an average of 1.7 captures per individual were necessary for achieving accurate population estimates. Subsampling scenarios revealed that both scat and hair samples were important for achieving accurate population estimates, but visiting 75% and 50% of the sites still gave reasonable estimates and reduced costs. Our research provides managers with an efficient and accurate method for monitoring high-density and low-density wolf populations in remote areas.     

A framework for estimating the sensitivity of eDNA surveys

Imperfect sensitivity, or imperfect detection, is a feature of all survey methods that needs to be accounted for when interpreting survey results. Detection of environmental DNA (eDNA) is increasingly being used to infer species distributions, yet the sensitivity of the technique has not been fully evaluated. Sensitivity, or the probability of detecting target DNA given it is present at a site, will depend on both the survey method and the concentration and dispersion of target DNA molecules at a site. We present a model to estimate target DNA concentration and dispersion at survey sites and to estimate the sensitivity of an eDNA survey method. We fitted this model to data from a species‐specific eDNA survey for Oriental weatherloach, Misgurnus anguillicaudatus, at three sites sampled in both autumn and spring. The concentration of target DNA molecules was similar at all three sites in autumn but much higher at two sites in spring. Our analysis showed the survey method had ≥95% sensitivity at sites where target DNA concentrations were ≥11 molecules per litre. We show how these data can be used to compare sampling schemes that differ in the number of field samples collected per site and number of PCR replicates per sample to achieve ≥95% sensitivity at a given target DNA concentration. These models allow researchers to quantify the sensitivity of eDNA survey methods to optimize the probability of detecting target species, and to compare DNA concentrations spatially and temporarily.     

Long‐term Spatial Changes in the Distribution of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The aim of this study is to represent simultaneously changes in the spatial distribution of the Atlantic forest during the last 17,000 years. To characterize such changes, here we focused on three different forest physiognomies, evergreen, semi‐deciduous, and Araucaria, and we provide a list of indicator taxa for each class retrieved from the original published datasets. A review of the published fossil pollen records allowed us to classify regional behaviors in three main areas of distribution, north of 15°S, between 15° and 23°S and south of 23°S latitude that correspond to three climatic geographical barriers. Statistical probability density function method was used to illustrate changes in forest physiognomies throughout the three distribution areas. We show that the three modern barriers also functioned through the past. Asynchronous patterns of forest physiognomies are linked to an antiphasing pattern of monsoon precipitation between the northern and central area, whereas in the southern area, it is linked to the frequency and intensity of the polar advection in the subtropics. Our results attest to strong climate forcing on forest distribution between the late glacial and the interglacial period. They call into question the common reference to the last glacial maximum as a major (and sometimes as the only) driver of forest‐related vicariance and genetic diversity patterns, but suggest that instead, orbital cycles were the main drivers of the successive expansion/contraction of the Atlantic forest throughout the Quaternary.     

Dynamic Modeling of In‐Use Cement Stocks in the United States

A dynamic substance‐flow model is developed to characterize the stocks and flows of cement utilized during the 20th century in the United States, using the generic cement life cycle as a systems boundary. The motivation for estimating historical inventories of cement stocks and flows is to provide accurate estimates of contemporary cement in‐use stocks in U.S. infrastructure and future discards to relevant stakeholders in U.S. infrastructure, such as the federal and state highway administrators, departments of transportation, public and private utilities, and the construction and cement industries. Such information will assist in planning future rehabilitation projects and better life cycle management of infrastructure systems. In the present policy environment of climate negotiations, estimates of in‐use cement infrastructure can provide insights about to what extent built environment can act as a carbon sink over its lifetime. The rate of addition of new stock, its composition, and the repair of existing stock are key determinants of infrastructure sustainability. Based upon a probability of failure approach, a dynamic stock and flow model was developed utilizing three statistical lifetime distributions—Weibull, gamma, and lognormal—for each cement end‐use. The model‐derived estimate of the “in‐use” cement stocks in the United States is in the range of 4.2 to 4.4 billion metric tons (gigatonnes, Gt). This indicates that 82% to 87% of cement utilized during the last century is still in use. On a per capita basis, this is equivalent to 14.3 to 15.0 tonnes of in‐use cement stock per person. The in‐use cement stock per capita has doubled over the last 50 years, although the rate of growth has slowed.     

Evolution of budding yeast prion-determinant sequences across diverse fungi

Prions are transmissible self-replicating alternative states of proteins. Four prions ([PSI+], [URE3], [RNQ+] and [NU+]) can be inherited cytoplasmically in Saccharomyces cerevisiae laboratory strains. In the case of [PSI+], there is increasing evidence that prion formation may engender mechanisms to uncover hidden genetic variation. Here, we have analysed the evolution of the prion-determinant (PD) domains across 21 fungi, focusing on compositional biases, repeats and substitution rates. We find evidence for constraint on all four PD domains, but each domain has its own evolutionary dynamics. For [PSI+], the Q/N bias is maintained in fungal clades that diverged one billion years ago, with purifying selection observed within the Saccharomyces species. The degree of Q/N bias is correlated with the degree of local homology to prion-associated repeats, which occur rarely in other proteins (<1% of sequences for the proteomes studied). The evolutionary conservation of Q/N bias in Sup35p is unusual, with only eight other S. cerevisiae proteins showing similar, phylogenetically deep patterns of bias conservation. The [URE3] PD domain is unique to Hemiascomycota; part of the PD domain shows purifying selection, whereas another part engenders bias changes between clades. Also, like for Sup35p, the [RNQ+] and [NU+] PD domains show purifying selection in Saccharomyces species. Additionally, in each proteome, we observe on average several hundred yeast-prion-like domains, with fewest in fission yeast. Our findings on yeast prion evolution provide further support for the functional significance of these molecules.     

Relation of transition probabilities in the Leslie model to those from experimental cumulative distributions

We explore the relationship between transition probabilities in the Leslie model and those derived from experimental cumulative distributions. The nature of the two kinds of probabilities are discussed, and a formula derived for converting from one to the other. A numerical example is given to illustrate the differences.