Temperature-dependent age-specific demography of grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae): jackknife vs. bootstrap techniques

Grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Lep. Tortricidae) is a key pest of grape in Iran and other vineyards of the world. In this study, eight constant rearing temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 32 and 35 ± 1 °C) along with 60 ± 10% RH and a 16:8 (L:D) h photoperiod were chosen for demographic studies of the grapevine moth. Immature stages were unable to develop when reared at 5 and 35 °C, and the progeny moths were unable to successfully mate at 10, 15 and 32 °C. The overall developmental time of juveniles decreased at 30 °C (from 320.7 ± 3.4 d at 10 °C to 34.2 ± 0.2 d) followed by an increase to 42.5 ± 0.6 d at 32 °C. Based on values of the stable population growth parameters, the temperature of 25 °C was found to be optimal for propagation of grapevine moth. The highest values of the intrinsic rate of increase, gross and net reproductive rates were 0.0719 d?^?1, 55.5 and 23 females per generation, respectively, at 25 °C. Since jackknife and bootstrap estimates of mean and standard error were mainly similar, both methods may equally be used for uncertainty estimates. Our data suggest that cold storage of grapes will help to control grapevine moth infestations and damage. In many grape growing regions of Iran, the first generation is expected to cause damage. It is expected since our reproductive life table analysis suggests that the hot summer temperatures may restrict pest development during subsequent generations.     

Sampling for conditional inference on case-control data

The problem of exact conditional inference for discrete multivariate case-control data has two forms. The first is grouped case-control data, where Monte Carlo computations can be done using the importance sampling method of Booth and Butler (1999, Biometrika86, 321-332), or a proposed alternative sequential importance sampling method. The second form is matched case-control data. For this analysis we propose a new exact sampling method based on the conditional-Poisson distribution for conditional testing with one binary and one integral ordered covariate. This method makes computations on data sets with large numbers of matched sets fast and accurate. We provide detailed derivation of the constraints and conditional distributions for conditional inference on grouped and matched data. The methods are illustrated on several new and old data sets.     

Bootstrapping the Energy Flow in the Beginning of Life

This paper suggests that the energy flow on which all living structures depend only started up slowly, the low-energy, initial phase starting up a second, slightly more energetic phase, and so on. In this way, the build up of the energy flow follows a bootstrapping process similar to that found in the development of computers, the first generation making possible the calculations necessary for constructing the second one, etc. In the biogenetic upstart of an energy flow, non-metals in the lower periods of the Periodic Table of Elements would have constituted the most primitive systems, their operation being enhanced and later supplanted by elements in the higher periods that demand more energy. This bootstrapping process would put the development of the metabolisms based on the second period elements carbon, nitrogen and oxygen at the end of the evolutionary process rather than at, or even before, the biogenetic event.     

Temperature and plant nutrient effects on the development, survival and reproduction of Cinara sp. nov., an invasive pest of cypress trees in Africa

Cinara sp. nov., previously identified as Cinara cupressi (Buckton) (Homoptera: Aphididae), is an important alien aphid pest of cypresses and junipers, and invaded Africa in the late 1980s. The work reported here was carried out as part of a larger programme aimed at the classical biological control of the aphid in Africa. Basic life history attributes including life table statistics of the aphid were quantified in order to facilitate the development of efficient aphid culturing methods and essential baseline information necessary for the culturing of potential parasitoid biological agents prior to selection for introduction to Africa. Developmental rates and fecundity were studied under four constant temperatures (10 °C, 15 °C, 20 °C, and 25 °C). The effects of several plant nutrients (nitrogen, potassium and phosphorus) supplied at different dose levels on life history attributes of Cinara sp. nov. were also studied.Unlike most other aphids, the apterous morph of Cinara sp. nov. developed through only three instars, and the alate four instars. The aphid is highly aggregative and exploits a wide range of feeding sites from young green branches to woody stems. The developmental period of Cinara sp. nov. ranged from 9.3 days at 25 °C to 22.3 days at 10 °C and the developmental threshold was 0.61 °C. Reproduction was delayed, because of the longer duration of development, and nymph production decreased with decreasing temperature. The intrinsic rate of increase ranged between 0.117 at 25 °C and 0.060 at 10 °C. Aphid size increased significantly as temperature was lowered. Wing formation was not induced when apterae were reared for up to three generations at each constant temperature but continuous crowding in the supply cultures held at 21 °C resulted in a high number of alates being formed. No appreciable effects of the different plant nutrients, supplied either singly or in combination, on the duration of instars or overall survival could be detected.     

The fate of NH4NO3 added to Sphagnum magellanicum carpets at five European mire sites

Nitrogen additions as NH4NO3 corresponding to 0 (N0), 1 (N1), 3 (N3) and 10 (N10) g N m-2 yr-1 were made to Sphagnum magellanicum cores at two-week intervals in situ at four sites across Europe, i.e. Lakkasuo (Finland), Männikjärve (Estonia), Moidach More (UK) and Côte de Braveix (France). The same treatments were applied in a glasshouse experiment in Neuchâtel (Switzerland) in which the water table depth was artificially maintained at 7, 17 and 37 cm below the moss surface. In the field, N assimilation in excess of values in wet deposition occurred in the absence of growth, but varied widely between sites, being absent in Lakkasuo (moss N:P ratio 68) and greatest in Moidach More (N:P 21). In the glasshouse, growth was reduced by lowering the water table without any apparent effect on N assimilation. Total N content of the moss in field sites increased as the mean depth of water table increased indicating growth limitation leading to increased N concentrations which could reduce the capacity for N retention. Greater contents of NH4+ in the underlying peat at 30 cm depth, both in response to NH4NO3 addition and in the unamended cores confirmed poor retention of inorganic N by the moss at Lakkasuo. Nitrate contents in the profiles at Lakkasuo, Moidach More, and Côte de Braveix were extremely low, even in the N10 treatment, but in Männikjärve, where the mean depth of water table was greatest and retention absent, appreciable amounts of NO3- were detected in all cores. It is concluded that peatland drainage would reduce the capture of inorganic N in atmospheric deposition by Sphagnum mosses.     

Stream power influence on southern Californian riparian vegetation

Abstract. Mechanical damage by floodwaters is frequently invoked to explain the distribution of riparian plant species, but data have been lacking to relate vegetation to specific estimates of flood damage potential. This research uses detailed estimates of unit stream power (an appropriate measure of the potential for mechanical damage) in conjunction with vegetation cover data to test this relationship at 37 valley-bottom sites in the Transverse Ranges of Southern California. A computer program, HEC-2, was used to model the slope and the variation in flow depth and velocity of the 20-yr flood across the sites. Regression models tested the influence of stream power (and of height above the water table) on the woody species composition of 393 4-m cross-section segments of the valley-bottom sites. Results indicate that unit stream power does have a significant effect on the riparian vegetation, but that the amount of that influence and its importance relative to the influence of height above the water table varies between watersheds. Some species are found primarily in locations of high stream power, while others are limited to portions of the valley bottom that experience only low stream power.     

阿拉善黄鼠的生命表及繁殖

将采自野生种群的阿拉善黄鼠(Spermophilus dauricus alaschanicus Buechner)( 下称黄鼠)样本划分为8个年龄间隔,然后编制生命表。结果表明,黄鼠的平均死亡率(qx)为0.7512(♂)和0．6222(♀),平均寿命为1.3311年(♂)和1.1073年(♀)。0-l岁龄黄鼠的期望寿命(ex)为0.8311年(♂)和1.1073年(♀)。世代净增殖率(R_o)每代为l.7327。种群内禀增长率(瞬时)(r_m)为0.1433,世代平均时间(T)为3.8346年,周限增长率(r)为1.1541/年。     

群落排表分类的两种数学方法

本文描述两种执行群落排表分类的数学方法:X²分类法和信息熵分类法,并以德国西北部草地数据为例进行了应用和分析。结果表明这两个方法都是有效的群落排表分类方法,它们所排的群落表可直接地反映群落类型和种类组成之间的关系,体现了Braun-Blanquet传统排表法的特点。     

鹅掌楸苗期动态生命表

报道了鹅掌楸在苗圃播种后的出苗率和幼苗存活率,根据定期观察数据编制了苗期动态生命表。结果表明,4个种源的出苗率都很低(1.64%～3.05%),比其各自的饱满种子率低得多;天然种源的出苗率高于栽培的种源,但前者的出苗数占饱满种子数的比例却低于后者。至一个生长季以后,幼苗存活率仅占出苗数的16%～27%,而黄山种源与庐山种源的交配后代则高达60%,明显地高于其亲本和其它种源。种子大小对于出苗率和幼苗存活率没有直接影响。最后讨论了遗传因素和生存环境对幼苗存活的影响,并认为种子和幼苗适合度低是鹅掌楸致濒的重要原因之一。     

Exact Power of Conditional Tests for Several Binomial Populations

An efficient recursive polynomial multiplication method is proposed for exact unconditional power calculation for unordered 2 × K contingency table with up to moderate sample size. Our method can be applied to the family of cell-additive statistics which includes the Freeman-Halton statistic, the Pearson χ² statistic and the likelihood ratio statistic. We illustrate our proposed method by several numerical examples.