Evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey systems: an ecological perspective

 Evolution takes place in an ecological setting that typically involves interactions with other organisms. To describe such evolution, a structure is needed which incorporates the simultaneous evolution of interacting species. Here a formal framework for this purpose is suggested, extending from the microscopic interactions between individuals – the immediate cause of natural selection, through the mesoscopic population dynamics responsible for driving the replacement of one mutant phenotype by another, to the macroscopic process of phenotypic evolution arising from many such substitutions. The process of coevolution that results from this is illustrated in the context of predator–prey systems. With no more than qualitative information about the evolutionary dynamics, some basic properties of predator–prey coevolution become evident. More detailed understanding requires specification of an evolutionary dynamic; two models for this purpose are outlined, one from our own research on a stochastic process of mutation and selection and the other from quantitative genetics. Much of the interest in coevolution has been to characterize the properties of fixed points at which there is no further phenotypic evolution. Stability analysis of the fixed points of evolutionary dynamical systems is reviewed and leads to conclusions about the asymptotic states of evolution rather different from those of game-theoretic methods. These differences become especially important when evolution involves more than one species. Received 10 November 1993; received in revised form 25 July 1994     

Some prerequisites for a study of the evolution of cognition in the animal kingdom

A distinction is made between two definitions of animal cognition: the one most frequently employed in cognitive sciences considers cognition as extracting and processing information; a more phenomenologically inspired model considers it as attributing to a form of the outside world a significance, linked to the state of the animal. The respective fields of validity of these two models are discussed along with the limitations they entail, and the questions they pose to evolutionary biologists are emphasized. This is followed by a presentation of a general overview of what might be the study of the evolution of knowledge in animals.     

Structured modelling of animal cells

Recent advances in computer technology have promoted the design and use of detailed, computer-based models for biological systems. For many non-biological systems, the complexity of such simulations may be considered inappropriate and unwieldy, but in biological systems, and more specifically in animal cell culture, this level of complexity simply mimics what is only beginning to be understood about metabolic processs. With this in mind, we contend that complex, structured models are vital tools in the investigation of fundamental biological processes. An example of such a simulation, which describes the commercial production of therapeutic proteins by animal cell cultures, is considered.     

Predictive models for phosphorus retention in wetlands

The potential of wetlands to efficiently remove (i.e., act as a nutrient sink) or to transform nutrients like phosphorus under high nutrient loading has resulted in their consideration as a cost-effective means of treating wastewater on the landscape. Few predictive models exist which can accurately assess P retention capacity. An analysis of the north American data base (NADB) allowed us to develop a mass loading model that can be used to predict P storage and effluent concentrations from wetlands. Phosphorus storage in wetlands is proportional to P loadings but the output total phosphorus (TP) concentrations increase exponentially after a P loading threshold is reached. The threshold P assimilative capacity based on the NADB and a test site in the Everglades is approximately 1 g m^–2 yr^–1. We hypothesize that once loadings exceed 1 g m^–2 yr^–1 and short-term mechanisms are saturated, that the mechanisms controlling the uptake and storage of P in wetlands are exceeded and effluent concentrations of TP rise exponentially. We propose a One Gram Rule for freshwater wetlands and contend that this loading is near the assimilative capacity of wetlands. Our analysis further suggests that P loadings must be reduced to 1 g m^–2 yr^–1 or lower within the wetland if maintaining long-term low P output concentrations from the wetlands is the central goal. A carbon based phosphorus retention model developed for peatlands and tested in the Everglades of Florida provided further evidence of the proposed One Gram Rule for wetlands. This model is based on data from the Everglades areas impacted by agricultural runoff during the past 30 years. Preliminary estimates indicate that these wetlands store P primarily as humic organic-P, insoluble P, and Ca bound P at 0.44 g m^–2 yr^–1 on average. Areas loaded with 4.0 g m^–2 yr^–1 (at water concentrations>150 g·L^–1 TP) stored 0.8 to 0.6 g m^–2 yr^–1 P, areas loaded with 3.3 g m^–2 yr^–1 P retained 0.6 to 0.4 g m^–2 yr^–1 P, and areas receiving 0.6 g m^–2 yr^–1 P retained 0.3 to 0.2 g m^–2 yr^–1. The TP water concentrations in the wetland did not drop below 50 g·L^–1 until loadings were below 1 g m² yr^–1 P.     

The expected effects of climate change on wheat development

Air temperature and the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to rise. These two factor have a great potential to affect development, growth and yield of crops, including wheat. Rising air temperature may affect wheat development more than rising atmospheric CO₂ as there is not yet evidence that elevated CO₂ concentrations can directly induce changes in wheat development. In winter wheat, temperature has a complex effect on development due to its strong interaction with vernalization and photoperiod. In this paper, potential effects of rising temperature on the development of winter wheat from sowing to heading are considered in the light of this complex controlling mechanism. Data from a large series of field trials made in Romania is analysed at first and, subsequently, the IATA-Wheat Phenology model is used to calculate the impact of air warming on wheat development under different climate change scenarios. Data from the field trials showed very clearly the occurrence of a complex temperature/photoperiod/vernalization interaction for field sown crops and demostrated that the photoperiodic and vernalization responses have a key role in controlling the duration of the emergence-heading period. Temperature plays, instead, a central role in controlling seed germination and crop emergence as well as leaf inititiation and leaf appearance rate. The results of model analysis showed very well that the impact of an even or uneven distribution of warning effects may be very different. In the first case, the model predicted that the duration of the vegetative period was at least partly reduced in some years. In the second case, the model suggested that if warming will be more pronounced in winter than in spring, as predicted for some areas of the world by General Circulation Models, we may expect an increase in the duration of the vegetative phase of growth. On the contrary, in case of a spring warming but unchanged winter temperatures, we may expect a substantial decrease in the duration of the vegetative period.     

Ecological optima and tolerances of Thelypteris limbosperma,Athyrium distentifolium,and Matteuccia struthiopteris along environmental gradients in Western Norway

The distribution and abundance of Thelypteris limbosperma, Athyrium distentifolium, and Matteuccia struthiopteris are modelled statistically in relation to 14 environmental variables along the major climatic, topographic, and edaphic gradients in western Norway. The data are from 624 stands from which measurements or estimates of mean January and mean July temperatures, humidity, altitude, aspect, and slope are available. From 182 of these stands eight soil variables have also been measured. The species responses are quantified by two numerical methods: Gaussian logit regression and weighted averaging (WA) regression. The estimated WA optima suggest that A. distentifolium has an ecological preference for low July and January temperatures, high altitudes, and soils of low-medium pH and base content. The species shows statistically significant Gaussian responses with summer temperature, humidity (= Martonnes humidity index), altitude, slope, aspect, pH, cation exchange capacity, and base saturation with optima of 8.7 °C, 188.9, 1220 m, 28°, 29°, 4.8, 13.77 mEq 100 g dry soil^-1, and 13.4%, respectively. These suggest that the occurrence and relative abundance of A. distentifolium are well predicted by summer temperature, topography, and soil pH and base status. T. limbosperma has WA optima that suggest that it favours moderately high winter and summer temperatures, high humidity, medium altitude, and soils of low pH and base content. It has significant Gaussian responses to summer temperature (optimum =12.6 °C), winter temperature (-1.8 °C), humidity (179.2), altitude (459.5 m), slope (22.5°), and Na (0.7 mg 100 g dry soil^-1). These suggest that climatic factors, altitude, and slope are significant predictors for its occurrence and abundance. M. struthiopteris has high WA optima for summer temperature, pH, Ca, Mg, K, Na, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and base saturation, and a low optima for humidity and winter temperature. Of these, summer temperature (16.0 °C), Ca (63.1 mg 100 g dry soil^-1), Mg (41.0 mg 100 g dry soil^-1), K (23.6 mg 100 g dry soil^-1), Na (5.0 mg 100 g dry soil^-1), CEC (60.7 mEq 100 g dry soil^-1), and base saturation (56.3%) have significant Gaussian logit responses, as do aspect (150.2°) and loss-on-ignition (9.4%). These results suggest that the occurrence and relative abundance of M. struthiopteris are well predicted by high soil base cations, a generally southern aspect, low organic content in the soil, and high July temperatures.     

A protocol for classifying regional dynamics,exemplified by using woodland birds in southeastern Australia

Abstract Communities of forest and woodland birds are usually studied intensively at only one or a few locations. This provides a perspective that perhaps emphasizes local phenomena at the expense of placing local dynamics in the context of processes operating at the landscape or regional scale. The present paper seeks to redress partially this imbalance by studying the dynamics of individual bird species among several habitat types (all Eucalyptus-dominated forests or woodlands) over the annual cycle. This regional-scale (250km), continental study reveals that species exhibit idiosyncratic dynamics of various kinds: restricted or more ubiquitous occupation of habitats and three forms of seasonal dynamics at the regional scale (resident, migrant and itinerant). By using this classificatory scheme, it becomes evident that the bird communities found in different habitats consist of diverse collections of strategists and that the level of diversity differs among habitat types. The difficulties that many field workers have had in reconciling their observations with community theory most likely reflect the underlying dynamism of bird communities, especially in the temperate regions on continents where seasonal fluxes are pronounced.     

Self-Reported Substantial 1-Year Weight Change Among Men and Women in the United States

Population-based data have not been readily available on relatively short-term changes in weight. Therefore, we sought to determine the nature of self-reported substantial (> 10%) weight change over one year in a representative sample of the US population which participated in the 1989 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Across all ages, a larger proportion of women than men reported both weight loss as well as weight gain of any amount (18.9% vs. 16.1% for weight loss and 20.0% vs. 16.1% for weight gain). In sex-specific logistic regression analyses, significant risk factors common to both sexes for substantial weight loss included divorced/separated marital status, smoking, increased number of blood pressure checks, increased BMI (body mass index) and increased number of bed days. Black race reduced the risk of weight loss for both men and women. Sex-specific risk factors for weight loss in men only were widowhood or never married marital status, while increasing age was a protective factor in women only. Concerning weight gain > 10% over the past year, increased number of blood pressure checks and having one or more diabetic parents were significant risk factors among both men and women; while never being married, increased age, BMI, and education exerted a protective effect in both sexes. For women only, risk factors for weight gain included black race, increased number of contacts with a health professional, and being unemployed. Intention to lose weight was associated with both weight gain and weight loss in both sexes, although it did not serve as a confounder in any of these relationships. A greater likelihood of substantial weight loss among women relative to men was diminished for persons with higher BMI, higher number of blood pressure checks, being widowed, divorced or separated, and intention to lose weight. A greater likelihood of substantial weight gain among women relative to men was diminished for persons with low BMI. The results of this cross-sectional study of weight change, involving a one-year follow-up period, generally correspond with the results obtained by longitudinal studies involving a longer follow-up.     

向日葵籽实产量预测数学模型的研究

根据2年10个点次的田间试验结果建立了由数粒法、盘重法和盘径法预测向日葵籽实产量的回归数学模型,并根据1994年4个点次的产量实测结果对各模型的可靠性进行了验证．结果表明,三种方法建立的模型均有效、可靠．但在我国向日葵科研和生产实践中,以盘径法最为实用,建议推广应用．     

金钱松（属）的细胞分类学研究

我国特有植物金钱松Ｐｓｅｕｄｏｌａｒｉｘａｍａｂｉｌｌｓ的体细胞染色体数目为２ｎ＝４４,不同于ｎ＝１２（Ｍｉｙａｋｅ＆Ｙａｓｕｉ,１９１１）和２ｎ＝２４（Ｄｕｎｉｅｕ－Ｖａｂｒｅ,１９６１）的结果。核型公式为Ｋ（２ｎ）＝４４＝４ｓｍ＋４０ｔ）４ＳＣ）属３Ｂ类型,与Ｋ（ｎ）＝２２＝２ｍ＋２０ｔ（Ｓａｘ＆Ｓａｘ,１９３３）和Ｋ（２ｎ）＝４４＝４ｓｍ＋４０ｔ（Ｈｉｚｕｍｅ１９８８）有差异。染色体相对长度组成为＝４４＝４Ｌ＋１２Ｍ＿２＋２６Ｍ＿１＋２Ｓ。金钦松（属）不仅在染色体数目（２ｎ＝４４）和核型（具２０对端着丝粒染色体）而且它的一些形态、解剖学和植化性状与所有松科其它各属不同。另外,它的一系列形态、解剖、孢粉、生化、植化和古植物学特征显然表明把该属与落叶松属、雪松属一起组成落叶松亚科是不适宜的。因此似乎有理由把金钱松从该亚科分出并建立一个单型的金钱松新亚科。本文还对金钱松（属）核型可能由近缘的铁杉属起源和进化而来作了讨论。