Improved prediction of Canada lynx distribution through regional model transferability and data efficiency

The application of species distribution models (SDMs) to areas outside of where a model was created allows informed decisions across large spatial scales, yet transferability remains a challenge in ecological modeling. We examined how regional variation in animal‐environment relationships influenced model transferability for Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), with an additional conservation aim of modeling lynx habitat across the northwestern United States. Simultaneously, we explored the effect of sample size from GPS data on SDM model performance and transferability. We used data from three geographically distinct Canada lynx populations in Washington (n = 17 individuals), Montana (n = 66), and Wyoming (n = 10) from 1996 to 2015. We assessed regional variation in lynx‐environment relationships between these three populations using principal components analysis (PCA). We used ensemble modeling to develop SDMs for each population and all populations combined and assessed model prediction and transferability for each model scenario using withheld data and an extensive independent dataset (n = 650). Finally, we examined GPS data efficiency by testing models created with sample sizes of 5%–100% of the original datasets. PCA results indicated some differences in environmental characteristics between populations; models created from individual populations showed differential transferability based on the populations'' similarity in PCA space. Despite population differences, a single model created from all populations performed as well, or better, than each individual population. Model performance was mostly insensitive to GPS sample size, with a plateau in predictive ability reached at ~30% of the total GPS dataset when initial sample size was large. Based on these results, we generated well‐validated spatial predictions of Canada lynx distribution across a large portion of the species'' southern range, with precipitation and temperature the primary environmental predictors in the model. We also demonstrated substantial redundancy in our large GPS dataset, with predictive performance insensitive to sample sizes above 30% of the original.     

Foraging behavior predicts age at independence in juvenile Eurasian dippers (Cinclus cinclus)

Timing of foraging independence may be controlled by parents,offspiing, or both and may have consequences for dispersal,reproduction, and survival In a study of juvenile Eurasian dippers(Cinclus cinchus), I examined the relationship between individualdifferences in parental provisioning, the development of foraging,and the timing of independence. Young dippers forage very differentlyfrom adults, specializing on small, stationary pre such as simuliidlarvae (Diptera), and avoiding energetically costly and highlyskilled foraging techniques, such as diving, by which adultsobtain larger prey In my Welsh study area, age at independencevaried substantially within and between broods. Juveniles thatrelied more on simuliids and less on larger prey were independentsooner, as were juveniles with higher rates of intake whileforaging the effect was obvious 3–4 days after fledging.Provisioning rate and total caloric intake over the dependentperiod was unrelated to age at independence, although greaterreliance on parental feeding was associated with higher totalcaloric intake. Higher rates of intake from begging were correlatedwith reduced foraging time. The results demonstrate that theacquisition of the adult foraging strategy is not a prerequisitefor independence or, hence, dispersal. In fact, mastering theskills necessary to capture larger prey may delay independence.Individual juvenile dippers seem to find different solutionsto the trade-off between gaining sufficient food (either frombegging or from foraging for simuliids) and the eventual necessityof learning to forage like an adult.     

Winter Prey Selection of Canada Lynx in Northwestern Montana

ABSTRACT The roles that diet and prey abundance play in habitat selection of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in the contiguous United States is poorly understood. From 1998–2002, we back-tracked radiocollared lynx (6 F, 9 M) for a distance of 582 km and we located 86 kills in northwestern Montana, USA. Lynx preyed on 7 species that included blue grouse (Dendragapus obscurus), spruce grouse (Canachites canadensis), northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus), red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus), least weasel (Mustela nivalis), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Snowshoe hares (69 kills) accounted for 96% (4-yr average, range = 94–99%) of prey biomass during the sample period. Red squirrels were the second-most-common prey (11 kills), but they only provided 2% biomass of the winter diet. Red squirrels contributed little to the lynx diet despite low hare densities. A logistic regression model of snowshoe hare, red squirrel, and grouse abundance, as indexed by the number of track crossings of use and available lynx back-tracks, was a significant (Wald statistic = 19.03, df = 3, P < 0.001) predictor of habitat use. As we expected, lynx (P < 0.001) selected use-areas with higher snowshoe hare abundance compared to random expectation. However, the red squirrel index had a weak (P = 0.087) negative relationship to lynx use, and grouse was nonsignificant (P = 0.432). Our results indicate that lynx in western Montana prey almost exclusively on snowshoe hares during the winter with little use of alternative prey. Thus, reductions in horizontal cover for hares would degrade lynx habitat.     

A story from the Miocene: Clock‐dated phylogeny of Sisymbrium L. (Sisymbrieae,Brassicaceae)

Morphological variability and imprecise generic boundaries have hindered systematic, taxonomical, and nomenclatural studies of Sisymbrium L. (Brassicaceae, Sisymbrieae DC.). The members of this almost exclusively Old‐World genus grow mostly on highly porous substrates across open steppe, semidesert, or ruderal habitats in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and African subtropics. The present study placed the biological history of Sisymbrium L. into time and space and rendered the tribus Sisymbrieae as monotypic. Five nuclear‐encoded and three chloroplast‐encoded loci of approximately 85% of all currently accepted species were investigated. Several accessions per species covering their whole distribution range allowed for a more representative assessment of intraspecific genetic diversity. In the light of fossil absence, the impact of different secondary calibration methods and taxon sets on time spans was tested, and we showed that such a combinatorial nested dating approach is beneficial. Multigene phylogeny accompanied with a time divergence estimation analysis placed the onset and development of this tribus into the western Irano‐Turanian floristic region during the Miocene. Continuous increase in continentality and decrease in temperatures promoted the diversity of the Sisymbrieae, which invaded the open grasslands habitats in Eurasia, Mediterranean, and South Africa throughout the Pliocene and Pleistocene. Our results support the assumption of the Irano‐Turanian region as a biodiversity reservoir for adjacent regions.