Elastic priors to dynamically borrow information from historical data in clinical trials

Use of historical data and real-world evidence holds great potential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. One major challenge is to effectively borrow information from historical data while maintaining a reasonable type I error and minimal bias. We propose the elastic prior approach to address this challenge. Unlike existing approaches, this approach proactively controls the behavior of information borrowing and type I errors by incorporating a well-known concept of clinically significant difference through an elastic function, defined as a monotonic function of a congruence measure between historical data and trial data. The elastic function is constructed to satisfy a set of prespecified criteria such that the resulting prior will strongly borrow information when historical and trial data are congruent, but refrain from information borrowing when historical and trial data are incongruent. The elastic prior approach has a desirable property of being information borrowing consistent, that is, asymptotically controls type I error at the nominal value, no matter that historical data are congruent or not to the trial data. Our simulation study that evaluates the finite sample characteristic confirms that, compared to existing methods, the elastic prior has better type I error control and yields competitive or higher power. The proposed approach is applicable to binary, continuous, and survival endpoints.     

Molecular Parameterisation and the Theoretical Calculation of Electrode Potentials

The difference in reduction potentials between ortho and para-benzoquinones has been calculated. The employs gas phase ab initio and semi-empirical computations in combination with free energy perturbation theory applied to gas and solution phase Monte Carlo simulations. The effects on calculated results of altering solute electrostatic parameterisation in solution phase simulations is examined. Atom centred charges derived from the molecular electrostatic potentials, MEPs, from optimised ab initio wavefunctions and charges generated by consideration of hydrogen bonded complexes are considered. Parameterisation of hydroxyl torsions in hydroquinone molecules is treated in a physically realistic manner. The coupled torsional system of the ortho-hydrobenzoquinone molecule is described by a potential energy surface calculated using gas phase AM1 semi-empirical computations rather than the simple torsional energy functions frequently employed in such calculations. Calculated differences in electrode potentials show that the electrostatic interactions of quinone and hydroquinone molecules in aqueous solution are not well described by atom centred charges derived from ab initio calculated MEPs. Moreover, results in good agreement with the experimental reduction potential difference can be obtained by employing high level ab initio calculations and solution phase electrostatic parameters developed by consideration of hydrogen bonded complexes.     

Neurosecretion XVII. Experimentally induced release of neurosecretory material by exocytosis in the insect Leucophaea maderae

Summary In the corpora cardiaca of the insect Leucophaea the administration of serotonin elicits ultrastructural features indicative of the extrusion of neurosecretory material by exocytosis. The response to the stimulus and the process of extrusion seem to occur at considerable speed. Nearly all of the 30 test animals, fixed at various intervals starting as early as 3 min after the injection of the drug, show granules captured at the moment of leaving the axon as well as fully exteriorized secretory material. The fact that many of these granules are much smaller than the typical neurosecretory type speaks for intracellular fragmentation of the latter prior to the discharge of this cellular product. After 25 min or more the extruded electron dense structures show signs of breakdown. The apparent speed of these phenomena accounts for the dearth of omega-type configurations observed in unstimulated specimens of this species. The possible relationship between the membrane phenomena involved in exocytosis and the transient protrusions of bounding membranes of neurosecretory granules described in earlier papers remains to be clarified.Supported by N.S.F. research grant BMS 74-12456     

Use of proton Nuclear Overhauser Effects for the determination of the conformations of amino acid residues in oligopeptides

The use of the Nuclear Overhauser Effect to determine backbone and side-chain conformations of oligopeptides is discussed. The distance between the H^α proton of a given residue and the amide proton of the following residue depends only on the dihedral angle ψ. A calibration curve is given for the determination of ψ from the Nuclear Overhauser Effect involving these protons. In amino acids with branched side chains, e.g., threonine, isoleucine, and valine, the Nuclear Overhauser Effect involving the H^β proton and the amide proton in either the same or the following residue gives limited information about both χ¹ and either or ψ. The Nuclear Overhauser Effect involving the H^α and H^γ protons in leucine gives information about χ¹ and χ².