Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California: implications for population change

1. We performed demographic analyses on Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, a zooplanktivorous seabird inhabiting the variable California Current System, to understand how temporal environmental variability influences population dynamics. 2. We used capture-recapture data from 1986 to 2002 to rank models of interannual variation in survival, breeding propensity, breeding success, and recruitment. 3. All demographic parameters exhibited temporal variability. Interannual variation in survival was best modelled as a nonlinear function of the winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Breeding propensity was best modelled as a threshold function of local sea surface temperature. Breeding success and recruitment were best modelled with year-dependent annual variation. 4. Changes in the SOI force El Ni?o/La Ni?a events, which in turn alter prey availability to seabirds in this system. Demographic responses varied during El Ni?os/La Ni?as. Survival diminished substantially during the 1997-98 El Ni?o event, while breeding propensity was affected during both the 1992 and 1998 El Ni?os. Breeding success was reduced during the 1992, 1993, and 1998 El Ni?os, but was unusually high in 2002. Recruitment was higher at the beginning and end of this time-series. 5. While demographic responses varied interannually, parameter values covaried in a positive fashion, a situation conducive to rapid population change. During the 11 years study period, the Farallon auklet breeding population declined at 6.05 +/- 0.80% (SE) per year, a cumulative decline of 49.7%. This study demonstrates how climate variability has influenced key demographic processes for this diminished marine bird population.     

Effects of functional constraints and opportunism on the functional structure of a vertebrate predator assemblage

1. Within mainstream ecological literature, functional structure has been viewed as resulting from the interplay of species interactions, resource levels and environmental variability. Classical models state that interspecific competition generates species segregation and guild formation in stable saturated environments, whereas opportunism causes species aggregation on abundant resources in variable unsaturated situations. 2. Nevertheless, intrinsic functional constraints may result in species-specific differences in resource-use capabilities. This could force some degree of functional structure without assuming other putative causes. However, the influence of such constraints has rarely been tested, and their relative contribution to observed patterns has not been quantified. 3. We used a multiple null-model approach to quantify the magnitude and direction (non-random aggregation or divergence) of the functional structure of a vertebrate predator assemblage exposed to variable prey abundance over an 18-year period. Observed trends were contrasted with predictions from null-models designed in an orthogonal fashion to account independently for the effects of functional constraints and opportunism. Subsequently, the unexplained variation was regressed against environmental variables to search for evidence of interspecific competition. 4. Overall, null-models accounting for functional constraints showed the best fit to the observed data, and suggested an effect of this factor in modulating predator opportunistic responses. However, regression models on residual variation indicated that such an effect was dependent on both total and relative abundance of principal (small mammals) and alternative (arthropods, birds, reptiles) prey categories. 5. In addition, no clear evidence for interspecific competition was found, but differential delays in predator functional responses could explain some of the unaccounted variation. Thus, we call for caution when interpreting empirical data in the context of classical models assuming synchronous responses of consumers to resource levels.     

Breeding experience and population density affect the ability of a songbird to respond to future climate variation

Predicting how populations respond to climate change requires an understanding of whether individuals or cohorts within populations vary in their response to climate variation. We used mixed-effects models on a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population in British Columbia, Canada, to examine differences among females and cohorts in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climatic variables, age and population density were strong predictors of timing of breeding, but we also found considerable variation among individual females and cohorts. Within cohorts, females differed markedly in their breeding date and cohorts also differed in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity. The plasticity of a cohort appeared to be due primarily to an interaction between the environmental conditions (climate and density) experienced at different ages rather than innate inter-cohort differences. Cohorts that expressed higher plasticity in breeding date experienced warmer El Niño springs in their second or third breeding season, suggesting that prior experience affects how well individuals responded to abnormal climatic conditions. Cohorts born into lower density populations also expressed higher plasticity in breeding date. Interactions between age, experience and environmental conditions have been reported previously for long-lived taxa. Our current results indicate that similar effects operate in a short-lived, temperate songbird.     

Pleistocene camelids from the Syrian Desert: The diversity in El Kowm

The family Camelidae has been present in Eurasia since the latest Miocene, and several species are recognized, but their evolution is poorly known. The region of El Kowm, central Syria, includes several sites spanning the Early to Late Pleistocene and provides the only abundant fossil record of camelids in the Middle East. Our preliminary results show that several species are present over the sequence, revealing some surprising evolutionary trends.     

The Oldowan site Aïn al Fil (El Kowm,Syria) and the first humans of the Syrian Desert

At present, the oldest traces of human cultures are found in Eastern Africa. New discoveries set anew the questions about human and animal dispersal into Eurasia. For over 1.8 million years, humans have been present in the Levant. An extensive program of surveys and excavations in the Syrian Desert showed that this part of the world was a very ancient land of settlement. In Central Syria, the oldest site, Aïn al Fil in the region of El Kowm, was excavated in 2008 and 2010. The lithic industry in the lowest layer can be characterized by numerous unretouched flakes, pebble-tools and core-like artefacts. This assemblage is typical in a broad sense of archaic Palaeolithic the debitage of which corresponds to mode 1. From a techno-typological point of view, this industry tallies quite well with the so-called Oldowan stage. It shows remarkable similarities with the oldest African assemblages. From a chronologic point of view, these levels occur before three positive events in the Matuyama paleomagnetic sequence. It seems consistent to place the Oldowan sequence around 1.8 Ma BP within the Olduvai subchron or just before Olduvai/Matuyama reversal limit. Together with those of the neighbouring site Hummal, these levels would be the oldest traces of human presence ever found in Syria. In the Levant, the first humans not only occupied favourable zones but regularly ventured deep into less welcoming environments suggesting an astonishing flexibility in their behavioural and survival skills.     

Oceanographic anomalies and sea‐level rise drive mangroves inland in the Pacific coast of Mexico

Question: Although mangrove forests are generally regarded as highly threatened, some studies have shown that mangrove canopies in the Pacific coast of Mexico have been increasing in recent decades. We investigated the possible causes driving this reported mangrove expansion. Location: The mangrove lagoons of Magdalena Bay in Baja California, Mexico. Methods: We used 50‐year‐old aerial photographs and 24‐year‐old satellite images to compare long‐term vegetation change, surveyed a coastal vegetation transect to analyse flooding levels, compiled six decades of tidal and oceanographic information, as well as hurricane data to analyse changes in storm frequency or sea‐level conditions, and used isotopic analysis to date the age of trees along the gradient. Results: A significant increase in mangrove cover has occurred in backwaters of the lagoons during the last 40 years, and especially during the El Niño anomalies of the 1980s and 1990s, while at the same time the mangrove fringe has been receding. Conclusions: The observed change can be attributed to the combined action of the warm surface waters of El Niño events and sea‐level rise. Jointly, these two effects are sufficient to flood large areas of previously non‐flooded salt flats, dispersing mangrove seedlings inland. The inland expansion of mangroves, however, does not ease conservation concerns, as it is the seaward fringes, and not the inland margins, that provide the most valuable environmental services for fisheries and coastal protection.     

Extreme climatic events change the dynamics and invasibility of semi-arid annual plant communities

Extreme climatic events represent disturbances that change the availability of resources. We studied their effects on annual plant assemblages in a semi-arid ecosystem in north-central Chile. We analysed 130 years of precipitation data using generalised extreme-value distribution to determine extreme events, and multivariate techniques to analyse 20 years of plant cover data of 34 native and 11 exotic species. Extreme drought resets the dynamics of the system and renders it susceptible to invasion. On the other hand, by favouring native annuals, moderately wet events change species composition and allow the community to be resilient to extreme drought. The probability of extreme drought has doubled over the last 50 years. Therefore, investigations on the interaction of climate change and biological invasions are relevant to determine the potential for future effects on the dynamics of semi-arid annual plant communities.     

Tropical and north Pacific teleconnections influence fire regimes in pine-dominated forests of north-eastern California, USA

Aim To assess the importance of drought and teleconnections from the tropical and north Pacific Ocean on historical fire regimes and vegetation dynamics in north‐eastern California. Location The 700 km² study area was on the leeward slope of the southern Cascade Mountains in north‐eastern California. Open forests of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. ponderosa Laws.) and Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi Grev. & Balf) surround a network of grass and shrub‐dominated meadows that range in elevation from 1650 to 1750 m. Methods Fire regime characteristics (return interval, season and extent) were determined from crossdated fire scars and were compared with tree‐ring based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature and teleconnections for the period 1700–1849. The effect of drought on fire regimes was determined using a tree‐ring based proxy of climate from five published chronologies. The number of forest‐meadow units that burned was compared with published reconstructions of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Results Landscape scale fires burned every 7–49 years in meadow‐edge forests and were influenced by variation in drought, the PDO and ENSO. These widespread fires burned during years that were dryer and warmer than normal that followed wetter and cooler years. Less widespread fires were not associated with this wet, then dry climate pattern. Widespread fires occurred during El Niño years, but fire extent was mediated by the phase of the PDO. Fires were most widespread when the PDO was in a warm or normal phase. Fire return intervals, season and extent varied at decadal to multi‐decadal time scales. In particular, an anomalously cool, wet period during the early 1800s resulted in widespread fires that occurred earlier in the year than fires before or after. Main conclusions Fire regimes in north‐eastern California were strongly influenced by regional and hemispheric‐scale climate variation. Fire regimes responded to variation that occurred in both the north and tropical Pacific. Near normal modes of the PDO may influence fire regimes more than extreme conditions. The prevalence of widespread teleconnection‐driven fires in the historic record suggests that variation in the Pacific Ocean was a key regulator of fire regimes through its influence on local fuel production and successional dynamics in north‐eastern California.     

Variation in leaf litter nutrients of a Costa Rican rain forest is related to precipitation

By assessing current leaf litter nutrient dynamics, we may be able to predict responses of nutrient cycling in tropical ecosystems to future environmental change. The goal of this study was to assess whether nutrient cycling is related to seasonal variation in rainfall in a wet tropical forest. We examined leaf litter of an old-growth tropical rain forest in N.E. Costa Rica over a 4-year period to explore seasonal and inter-annual changes in leaf litter nutrient concentrations, and to evaluate potential short- and long-term drivers of variation in litter nutrient concentration, particularly that of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N). We also examined the temporal dynamics of calcium, potassium, and magnesium in the leaf litter. Leaf litter [P] and %N changed significantly with time, both seasonally and inter-annually. Seasonal changes in leaf litter [P] were strongly positively correlated with rainfall from the previous 2 weeks; cations, however, were inversely related to this measure of current rainfall, while %N was not related to rainfall. We propose that the positive relationship between current rainfall and leaf litter [P] is due to a response by the vegetation to an increase in nutrient availability and uptake. In contrast, given the negative relationship between current rainfall and cation concentrations, leaching from live leaf tissue is a more likely driver of short-term changes in cations. Should global climate change include altered rainfall patterns in this biome, one class of ecosystem-level responses could be significant changes in P and cation cycling.     

Gene flow across a climatic barrier between hybridizing avian species, California and Gambel's quail (Callipepla californica and C. gambelii)

Allopatric species commonly interbreed in a restricted margin between their ranges. The particular factors that permit interbreeding between species determine the extent of hybridization and its significance for evolution and conservation. Using California quail and Gambel's quail (Callipepla californica and C. gambelii) that naturally hybridize in a narrow region between relatively mesic and xeric environments, I assessed the exchange of genetic and phenotypic traits in relation to vegetative and climatic features (temperature and precipitation) that characterize the area of range overlap, and I examined genetic and phenotypic traits within the hybrid zone over a five-year period in relation to variation in precipitation. Using microsatellite markers, this study reveals that genetic, plumage, and morphometric traits are tightly associated with vegetation, rainfall, and temperature profiles through the abrupt transition from one parental species to the other across the hybrid zone. Results show that the hybrid zone has remained clinal, stationary, and bounded over the five-year study period. There was no evidence of introgression outside the narrow hybrid zone. Interannual climatic fluctuations are associated with internal hybrid zone dynamics but did not alter the shape and position of the zone. A transect through the hybrid zone revealed rapid and episodic genetic mixing within the zone. Possible long-term consequences of this restricted hybridization for the evolution of the two parental species are discussed in the light of changing environments.