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991.
A life‐history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments
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Current understanding of life‐history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non‐stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics. 相似文献
992.
Translating niche features: Modelling differential exposure of Argentine reptiles to global climate change
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Javier Nori Débora L. Moreno Azócar Felix B. Cruz Marcelo F. Bonino Gerardo C. Leynaud 《Austral ecology》2016,41(4):367-375
Global climate change affects the distributions of ectotherms and may be the cause of several conservation problems, such as great displacement of climatic suitable spaces for species and, consequently, important reductions of the extent of liveable places, threatening the existence of many of them. Species exposure (and hence vulnerability) to global climate change is linked to features of their climatic niches (such as the relative position of the inhabited localities of each species in the climatic space), and therefore to characteristics of their geographic ranges (such as the extent of the distributions or altitudinal range inhabited by the species). In order to analyze the pattern of response of Argentine reptiles to global climate change, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares models using species exposure to global climate change as a response variable, and (i) niche properties (breadth and position of the species in the climate space) and (ii) general features of the distribution of species (maximum latitude, altitudinal range, maximum elevation, distributional range and proximity to the most important dispersal barrier) as predictors. Our results suggest that the best way to explain climate change exposure is by combining breadth and position of climatic niche of the species or combining geographic features that are indicators of both niche characteristics. Our best model shows that in our study area, species with the narrowest distributional ranges that also inhabit the highest elevations are the most exposed to the effects of global climate change. In this sense, reptile species from Yungas, Puna and Andes ecoregions could be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We believe that these types of models may represent an interesting tool for determining species and places particularly threatened by the effects of global climate change, which should be strongly considered in conservation planning. 相似文献
993.
Arik Kershenbaum Daniel T. Blumstein Marie A. Roch Çağlar Akçay Gregory Backus Mark A. Bee Kirsten Bohn Yan Cao Gerald Carter Cristiane Cäsar Michael Coen Stacy L. DeRuiter Laurance Doyle Shimon Edelman Ramon Ferrer‐i‐Cancho Todd M. Freeberg Ellen C. Garland Morgan Gustison Heidi E. Harley Chloé Huetz Melissa Hughes Julia Hyland Bruno Amiyaal Ilany Dezhe Z. Jin Michael Johnson Chenghui Ju Jeremy Karnowski Bernard Lohr Marta B. Manser Brenda McCowan Eduardo Mercado III Peter M. Narins Alex Piel Megan Rice Roberta Salmi Kazutoshi Sasahara Laela Sayigh Yu Shiu Charles Taylor Edgar E. Vallejo Sara Waller Veronica Zamora‐Gutierrez 《Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society》2016,91(1):13-52
Animal acoustic communication often takes the form of complex sequences, made up of multiple distinct acoustic units. Apart from the well‐known example of birdsong, other animals such as insects, amphibians, and mammals (including bats, rodents, primates, and cetaceans) also generate complex acoustic sequences. Occasionally, such as with birdsong, the adaptive role of these sequences seems clear (e.g. mate attraction and territorial defence). More often however, researchers have only begun to characterise – let alone understand – the significance and meaning of acoustic sequences. Hypotheses abound, but there is little agreement as to how sequences should be defined and analysed. Our review aims to outline suitable methods for testing these hypotheses, and to describe the major limitations to our current and near‐future knowledge on questions of acoustic sequences. This review and prospectus is the result of a collaborative effort between 43 scientists from the fields of animal behaviour, ecology and evolution, signal processing, machine learning, quantitative linguistics, and information theory, who gathered for a 2013 workshop entitled, ‘Analysing vocal sequences in animals’. Our goal is to present not just a review of the state of the art, but to propose a methodological framework that summarises what we suggest are the best practices for research in this field, across taxa and across disciplines. We also provide a tutorial‐style introduction to some of the most promising algorithmic approaches for analysing sequences. We divide our review into three sections: identifying the distinct units of an acoustic sequence, describing the different ways that information can be contained within a sequence, and analysing the structure of that sequence. Each of these sections is further subdivided to address the key questions and approaches in that area. We propose a uniform, systematic, and comprehensive approach to studying sequences, with the goal of clarifying research terms used in different fields, and facilitating collaboration and comparative studies. Allowing greater interdisciplinary collaboration will facilitate the investigation of many important questions in the evolution of communication and sociality. 相似文献
994.
Most anthropogenic activities impacted on water quality and quantity, and further impacted on ecosystem services (ESs) in watershed are related to land use and climate changes those may cause losses of ecosystem functions. Effective information regarding ESs and their optimal priority conservation planning responded to land use and climate changes provide useful support for diverse stakeholders in ESs planning, management and policies. This study integrated the approach of spatially explicit ESs (water yield, inorganic nutrient, organic nutrient and sediment retentions) by using hydrology and material flow model (Soil and Water Assessment Tools, SWAT model) into systematic conservation of hydrological ESs according to land use and climate changes in Teshio watershed located in the north of Hokkaido, Japan. We investigated the spatial patterns and the hotspots of ESs changes to determine the spatial pattern of changes in systematic conservation optimal area of ES protection in terms of ESs protection targets. Under the land use and climate change scenarios, the forest land use significantly affected on the water yield, sediment, organic-Nitrogen (N) and organic-Phosphorous (P) retentions. The agricultural land (paddy and farmland fields) impacted on the inorganic-N and inorganic-P retentions. We applied the systematic conservation model (MARXAN model) to optimize the area for management of hydrological ESs satisfied the protection targets (30% and 50% of potential maximum ESs values among all scenarios) in all and individual ecosystem services, respectively. The simulated results indicated that the areas of spatial optimal ESs protection for all hydrological ESs were totally different from those for individual ESs. For bundles of ESs, the optimal priority conservation areas concentrated in southwest, north, and southeast of this watershed, which are related to land use, topography and climate driving factors. These places could guarantee ESs sustainability from both environmental protection and agricultural development standpoints. The priority conservation area turned more compact under climate change because the increased precipitation and temperature increased ESs amount. For individual ESs, the optimal priority conservation areas of water yield, sediment retention and organic nutrient retention were traded off against those of inorganic nutrient retention (lower Jaccard's indexes and negative correlations of selection times). Especially, the negative correlation of selection times increased as the conservation target increased from 30% to 50%. The proposed approach provided useful information for assessing the responses of ESs and systematic conservation optimal planning to the land use and climate changes. The systematic conservation optimal areas of hydrological ESs provided an effective trade-off tool between environmental protection (sediment and organic nutrient retentions) and economic development (water yield and inorganic nutrient retention). 相似文献
995.
During 2002–2005, a new container terminal in the commercial harbour of Le Havre, named “Port2000”, was built on the northern flank of the Seine estuary, northern France. This extension is already known to have modified the estuary current and sediment dynamics, as well as reducing biomass of the suprabenthos assemblage, for the whole downstream part of the system. However, studies on other biotic communities were largely inconclusive, and an ecosystem-wide analysis was still lacking. Here, we performed a before/after study of ecosystem dynamics of the different habitats of the Seine estuary, using a Linear Inverse Modelling technique (LIM-MCMC) to estimate all flows occurring in the food web. Ecological Network Analysis indices were calculated, summarising ecosystem functioning traits and giving indications about the habitat health status. Results showed that the southern flank (FS, Fosse Sud) exhibits all characteristics to be considered as the least stressed habitat of the estuary: system activity and functional specialisation of flows were stable between periods, ecosystem recycling processes and detrital dynamics were also stable; an increase in trophic specialisation (decrease in system omnivory) was the only change confirming a general ecological succession. The northern flank (FN, Fosse Nord), where the actual terminal was built, showed a food web with increased importance of lower trophic levels (increased detritivory and carbon recycling), increased stability and flow efficiency, but possibly regressed to a previous step in ecological succession. In the central navigation channel (CH), patterns of network indices were overall inconclusive and the general image is one of a constantly shifting food web, a condition possibly caused by the year-round dredging activities. The functioning of the Seine estuary – especially of FN and FS – seems to have been modified by the combination of harbour construction and the related mitigation measures. Network indices partially captured this combination of changes and, although not fully operational yet, they are promising tools to comply with the European Union mandate of defining ecosystem health status. 相似文献
996.
As the largest CO2 emitter in the world, China has faced great pressure to mitigate its CO2 emissions. Thus, issues related to CO2 emissions in China have been widely studied. However, the industrial linkages of CO2 emissions at the regional level have been less concerned. This study integrates hypothetical extraction method with the multi-regional input–output model, and investigates industrial CO2 emission linkages of China at the regional level. Based on the data of China in 2007, which decomposes China into eight regions, this study first analyzes the production-based emission (PBE) and consumption-based emission (CBE) of each region. The PBE and CBE of 10 branches are then analyzed and decomposed into three parts. Finally, this study decomposes the externally produced embodied emission (EPEE) and internally produced embodied emission (IPEE) of Petrochemicals and Minerals in the East Coast, to illustrate how these two indicators of a branch affect other branches in the economy. Results show that regions with large PBE, such as coastal regions and Central, usually have large CBE, whereas Jing-jin has the smallest PBE and CBE. Branches such as Mining and Petrochemicals and Minerals, have large PBE and are net CO2 emission exporters; while Construction and Other Services are net importers. According to the decomposition results of PBE and CBE, branches can be classified into four groups. The decomposed IPEE and EPEE of Petrochemicals and Minerals in the East Coast show that from the perspective of regions, CO2 emissions this branch exports to and imports from East Coast are most. From the perspective of branches, decomposition of IPEE shows that Petrochemicals and Minerals in the East Coast exports a large amount of CO2 emissions to Construction, while the decomposition results of EPEE show that the studied branch imports least CO2 emissions from Construction. Policy implications deduced from this study are discussed. 相似文献
997.
In the present study, we tested five trophic indicators and we demonstrated their usefulness to assess the environmental status of marine ecosystems and to implement an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). The tested indicators include the slope of the biomass spectrum, the mean trophic level (MTL), the marine trophic index (MTI) and two newly developed indicators, the high trophic level indicator (HTI) and the apex predator indicator (API). Indicators are compared between current state and potential reference situations, using as case studies: the Celtic Sea/Bay of Biscay, North Sea and English Channel ecosystems. Trophic spectra are obtained from Ecopath models while reference situations are estimated, simulating with EcoTroph and Ecosim different fishing pressures including three candidate scenarios for an EAFM. Inter-ecosystems assessments are done using Ecopath models, simulations outputs and scientific surveys data to assess the current states of the studied ecosystems, contrast the reference situations and analyze the responses of all indicators. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted on the main simulation parameters to test the robustness of the chosen indicators. Ecosystems specific targets for EAFM are proposed for the five trophic indicators estimated from whole-ecosystem models, while in the Celtic Sea/Bay of Biscay ecosystem targets are proposed for the MTL (=3.85) and HTI (48%) estimated from standard bottom-trawl surveys. The HTI is proposed to be relevant for survey data and the API is recommended using whole-ecosystem models. We conclude that HTI and API show trends in ecosystems health better than MTI. 相似文献
998.
999.
This paper aims to give an overview of the key issues facing those who are in a position to influence the planning and provision of mental health systems, and who need to address questions of which staff, services and sectors to invest in, and for which patients. The paper considers in turn: a) definitions of community mental health care; b) a conceptual framework to use when evaluating the need for hospital and community mental health care; c) the potential for wider platforms, outside the health service, for mental health improvement, including schools and the workplace; d) data on how far community mental health services have been developed across different regions of the world; e) the need to develop in more detail models of community mental health services for low‐ and middle‐income countries which are directly based upon evidence for those countries; f) how to incorporate mental health practice within integrated models to identify and treat people with comorbid long‐term conditions; g) possible adverse effects of deinstitutionalization. We then present a series of ten recommendations for the future strengthening of health systems to support and treat people with mental illness. 相似文献
1000.
In previous work by the authors about dynamic system modeling, basic ecosystems concepts and their application to ecological modeling theory were formalized. Measuring how a variable effects certain processes leads to improvements in dynamic systems modelling and facilitates the author’s study of system diversity in which model sensitivity is a key theme. Initially, some variables and their numeric data are used for modeling. Predictions from the constructed models depend on these data. Generic study of sensitivity aims to show to what degree model behavior is altered by modification of some specific data. If small variations cause important modifications in the model’s global behavior then the model is very sensitive in relation to the variables used. If uncertain systems are considered, then it is important to submit the system to extreme situations and analyze its behavior. In this article, some indexes of uncertainty will be defined in order to determine the variables' influence in the case of extreme changes. This will permit analysis of the system’s sensitivity in relation to several simulations. 相似文献