Economic transformation and biological welfare in colonial Burma: Regional differentiation in the evolution of average height

Did economic development result in an improvement in biological welfare in the tropics before the diffusion of modern public health techniques in the 1950s and 1960s? Between the mid-19th and early 20th century, Lower Burma experienced a rapid rise in population and became increasingly commercialized as a major rice exporter. Land reclamation on a massive scale in the Irrawaddy delta required an arduous process of jungle clearance, land drainage and preparation, and canal and bund construction, mostly in malarial swamps. Once paddy lands were created, rice was grown with rudimentary tools in malarial zones. By contrast, in most parts of Upper Burma the economy remained more subsistence-oriented, and less commercialized. In this paper, we investigate changes in physical stature by processing and analyzing data reported in two anthropometric surveys conducted in various regions of Upper and Lower Burma in 1904 and in 1938-1941. An inverted U curve is observed in the evolution of average height in Lower Burma, while stature remained fairly stable in Upper Burma until the 1930s.     

玉米粗缩病(MRDV)的季节流行动态和经济损失的定量研究

采用系统调查方法研究田间玉米粗缩病(MRDV)的自然发展动态和经济损失规律,其结果表明,MRDV在玉米生长季中的进展曲线遵循对数抛物线函数(y=a·e~bx ex~2)规律,从而建立了中单2#和丹玉13#玉米上MRDV(病指数和发病率)的流行模型(α<0.05,估计病情符合率75—100％),同时认为此函数为生长后期表现“隐症”的一类植物病毒病发展动态的通用拟合模型。MRDV对玉米成穗率、穗粒数、穗粒和干粒重诸产量因子都显著影响,相关分析发现玉米损失率与拔节,抽雄和吐丝期的MRDV严重度密切相关(r≥0.89,α<0.05),因此建立了这些时期病指数和病株率与经济损失率间的线性关系模型,并用相应的模型估计了南充地区1988—1989年MRDV引起的玉米产量和经济损失。     

杀虫剂防治三化螟的最佳时间和最适浓度

杀虫剂使用的最佳时间和最适浓度与很多因子有关,包括害虫种群动态、作物对为害的敏感性、作物单产和产品单价、杀虫剂药效降解速率和杀虫剂效率,以及气候条件等。运用边际分析方法,建立了确定杀虫剂使用的最佳时间和最适浓度的系统模型。此系统模型包括种群动态模型、产量损失预测模型、杀虫剂药效降解模型和杀虫剂效率模型。此外还引入了反映水稻对螟害敏感性程度的加权因子。通过求解一个函数的极大值问题,即可得到使得纯收益最大时的杀虫剂的使用时间和浓度。