Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence–absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size ( n  < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.     

生态足迹方法及研究进展

本文介绍了生态足迹的计算方法,回顾了国内外的研究进展,重点介绍了生态足迹计算中能源足迹算法的研究进展。目前,国外对生态足迹的研究集中在对长时间序列计算分析和计算方法的改进上,提出了改进的生态足迹方法“实际土地需求”法;国内研究还多限于生态足迹实例计算分析。探讨了生态足迹方法的优缺点,同时就生态足迹今后的研究重点提出一些看法和展望。     

持久性有机污染物污染及其防治

随着化学工业的快速发展,持久性有机污染物（POPs）的污染愈来愈成为突出的环境问题,对生态和人体健康构成严重威胁。文章从生物学的角度,对POPs的特性、分布和对动物与人体健康的危害等方面作了简要的介绍。对POPs污染与危害,提出了相应的治理措施。     

Designing a “tailor-made” ecological network using geographical information systems

During the last few years, geographical information systems (GIS) have spread as powerful tools for landscape analysis. The main purpose of this work was to use GIS to display an ecological network made up of core areas, key areas and ecological corridors. As an example of the application of this method we refer to the population of deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in an alpine area in northwestern Italy. The method provided an overall view of the ecological network of the area, highlighting how linear infrastructures can affect animal populations and consequently, their survival probability.     

岷江上游干旱河谷海拔梯度上白刺花叶片生态解剖特征研究

对岷江上游干旱河谷海拔梯度上（1 650～1 950 m）白刺花(Sophora davidii)叶片进行生态解剖学研究.观测指标包括叶片形态特征（叶长宽比、叶面积、叶片厚度）、解剖结构（表皮厚度、栅栏组织厚度(P)、海绵组织厚度(S)、P/S比值、表皮角质膜厚度）及叶表皮特征（气孔器密度和面积、表皮细胞密度和面积、表皮毛密度和长度）.结果表明,白刺花叶片面积为0.144～0.208 cm²,叶总厚度为171.58～195.83 μm;叶肉组织分化明显,栅栏组织厚度与海绵组织厚度分别为69.83～82.42和62.00～ 80.67 μm,P/S的比值为1.14～1.01,上下表皮厚度分别为14.03～15.33和13.88～16.17 μm,上下角质膜厚度分别为2.66～4.56和2.76～2.02 μm;气孔密度为13.71～15.02个·mm^-2,其面积为249.86～280.43 μm²;表皮细胞密度为160.54～178.43个·mm^-2,其面积为557.43～626.85 μm²;表皮毛长度为186.51～260.99 μm,其密度为18.29～32.27个·mm^-2.随海拔升高叶面积、叶厚度、栅栏组织和海绵组织的厚度、气孔器面积、表皮细胞面积以及表皮毛密度呈增加趋势,而角质膜厚度、表皮细胞密度和表皮毛长度则呈减小趋势;叶长宽比、P/S的比值、表皮厚度与气孔器密度无明显差异.     

棉花临界需氮量动态定量模型

在大田栽培条件下,于江苏南京和河南安阳两个生态区设置棉花氮素水平试验,基于作物临界氮浓度稀释模型和干物质动态累积模型,建立了棉花花后动态临界氮吸收速率、临界氮需求量的定量化模型.结果表明,两生态区的临界最大氮吸收速率均出现在花后42 d,分别为5.3和4.4 kg·hm^-2·d^-1,临界快速氮累积期分别在花后的23～59 d和23～61 d,安阳的最大临界日需氮量明显大于南京.根据模型得到：安阳生态区适宜施氮量在240～360 kg·hm^-2 之间,且360 kg·hm^-2 条件下其氮累积接近临界需求,南京生态区240 kg·hm^-2施氮量的氮累积与临界值相近.两区域基肥施用量分别占总施肥量的26%和27%,且适宜的追肥时间应在花后22 d左右.由于模型的建立是基于不同氮处理试验,有合理可靠的生理依据,为定量确定不同气候区域的动态施肥量提供了理论依据.     

Assessing the effect of EWDP on vegetation restoration by remote sensing in the lower reaches of Tarim River

In this study, effect of ecological water diversion on vegetation restoration in the lower reaches of Tarim River is assessed by coupling remote sensing techniques and a field-based survey. Land use/cover and fractional vegetation coverage (Fvc) maps derived from remote sensing images, ground validation data, and hydrological observation data are adopted to analyze the responses of Ecological Water Diversion Project (EWDP). The results indicate that, the EWDP has showed a positive effect on vegetation restoration in the lower part of Tarim Basin. During 2001 to 2013, transformation from unused land to nature vegetation (i.e. forest land, grassland and scrubland) was the major process of land use/cover change; the area of natural vegetation showed a 4.7% increase, and the area of unused land reduced by 6.8%. Landscape patch size was decreased, the degree of fragmentation and diversity of landscape was increased, and landscape structure in the study area became more complex. Moreover, vegetation coverage promoted from 2001 to 2013; average Fvc in 2013 was 1.5 times greater than that in 2001. The results can provide not only an accurate assessment for the EWDP, but also a visual insight for the water resources management practices in the study area, such that the sustainability for local ecosystem can be facilitated.     

用气象卫星对东亚季风区的生态过渡带的遥感监测研究

用极轨气象卫星的归一化植被指数(NDVI)对中国东亚季风区的生态过渡带(样带)进行遥感监测研究。研究结果表明,在过渡带内的各个生态区的NDVI与东亚季风进退的关系极为密切。在正常季风年NDVI有正常分布;在异常季风年,NDVI呈反常分布;把遥感过渡带内季风气候的变化简化为遥感生态区植被指数的变化。分析了在过渡带内主要生态区,即荒漠草原、干草原、草甸草原、农耕区、森林区ND-VI的变化规律,以及旬NDVI与旬降水量之间的关系。在过渡带内每年NDVI随时间变化的曲线形状可以作为每年季风气候变化特征的量度。     

南京地区繁缕和小繁缕群体的研究

繁缕(Stellaria media)和小繁缕(S.apetala)是两个形态相似的近缘种,有人把后者作为前者的亚种或变种来处理。本文通过对南京地区不同生境的三个自然群体和三个人工控制栽培群体的取样,以群体为单位,分别测算了叶、萼片、雄蕊、花瓣、果实和种子的8个数量性状的变异,绘制了多角形图;对花粉粒和种子进行了扫描;还通过花蕾套袋试验对种子活力作了检查。结果发现繁缕和小繁缕都是近亲繁殖植物,在形态上区别明显,对生态环境的要求基本相同,但小繁缕似更能耐受人为的践踏和刈割。     

Parallel evolution evidenced by molecular data in the banded-tetra (Astyanax fasciatus)

Astyanax is well known as a model for developmental biology studies, particularly with regard to Mexico's cave populations. More than 130 species of Astyanax are already known, most of which live in South America. The occurrence of cryptic species and species complexes elucidated by chromosomal and genetic studies demonstrates that the relationship between morphology and molecular evolution is quite complex within this group. In this work, we demonstrate that morphology does not follow the path of vicariant processes observed in Astyanax fasciatus populations, which separated about three million years ago, although molecular data suggests its separation in two species.