Emerging infectious diseases and animal social systems

Emerging infectious diseases threaten a wide diversity of animals, and important questions remain concerning disease emergence in socially structured populations. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to investigate whether—and under what conditions—disease-related mortality can impact rates of pathogen spread in populations of polygynous groups. Specifically, we investigated whether pathogen-mediated dispersal (PMD) can occur when females disperse after the resident male dies from disease, thus carrying infections to new groups. We also examined the effects of incubation period and virulence, host mortality and rates of background dispersal, and we used the model to investigate the spread of the virus responsible for Ebola hemorrhagic fever, which currently is devastating African ape populations. Output was analyzed using regression trees, which enable exploration of hierarchical and non-linear relationships. Analyses revealed that the incidence of disease in single-male (polygynous) groups was significantly greater for those groups containing an average of more than six females, while the total number of infected hosts in the population was most sensitive to the number of females per group. Thus, as expected, PMD occurs in polygynous groups and its effects increase as harem size (the number of females) increases. Simulation output further indicated that population-level effects of Ebola are likely to differ among multi-male–multi-female chimpanzees and polygynous gorillas, with larger overall numbers of chimpanzees infected, but more gorilla groups becoming infected due to increased dispersal when the resident male dies. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of social system on the spread of disease in wild mammals.     

Bifurcation analysis of periodic SEIR and SIR epidemic models

The bifurcations of the periodic solutions of SEIR and SIR epidemic models with sinusoidally varying contact rate are investigated. The analysis is carried out with respect to two parameters: the mean value and the degree of seasonality of the contact rate. The corresponding portraits in the two-parameter space are obtained by means of a numerical continuation method. Codimension two bifurcations (degenerate flips and cusps) are detected, and multiple stable modes of behavior are identified in various regions of the parameter space. Finally, it is shown how the parametric portrait of the SEIR model tends to that of the SIR model when the latent period tends to zero.     

Global stability of an SIR epidemic model with time delays

An SIR disease transmission model is formulated under the assumption that the force of infection at the present time depends on the number of infectives at the past. It is shown that a disease free equilibrium point is globally stable if no endemic equilibrium point exists. Further the endemic point (if it exists) is globally stable with respect to the whole state space except the neighborhood of the disease free state.Research partly supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture, Japan, Grant 05640256     

The identification of the periodic behaviour in an epidemic model

In this paper we study a method for the identification of the unknown parameter of the periodic function and also the first component of the state vector, in a mathematical model which describes the evolution of some diseases with an oro-fecal transmission.To solve the identification problem we use a numerical method to integrate the differential equations system, which reproduces the stability properties of the above mentioned continuous system.The numerical methods which we propose can be applied also to a spatial semi discretization of the reaction-diffusion model which is a diffusive generalization of the system that we consider in this paper.Finally, through an analysis on both the continuous and the discrete system we also obtain a necessary condition on the experimental data in order that a periodic trajectory of the system exists.Work supported by: Progetto Finalizzato Controllo Malattie da Infezione-CNR and by Ministero Pubblica Istruzione     

The HIV epidemic in China： history, response, and challenge

The first case of AIDS was reported in 1985 in China, but by the early 21st century, the government estimated that there were 840,000 citizens living with HIV/AIDS. The number is increasing rapidly. The major risk groups are injection drug users （IDUSs; 43%） and former plasma donors （27%）, but rates among heterosexual groups are rising rapidly. Sentinel surveillance was initiated in 1986, and now includes IDUs, men-who-have-sex-with-men, sexually transmitted disease clinic attendees, antenatal women, long-distance truck drivers, and sex workers. Although the government was slow to respond to the epidemic in the late 20th century, it has made a vigorous response in the early 21st century. Components of that response include implementation and evaluation of harm reduction programs for IDUs, education to increase knowledge and reduce stigma, treatment and social support for rural and poor HIV/AIDS patients, widespread testing, and increased funding for HIV/AIDS programs. International agencies have been generous in their support of the government initiatives. To successfully combat the epidemic, China needs to develop and train the necessary infrastructure to implement its intervention programs, particularly in the rural areas, to vigorously combat stigma and discrimination, support research especially in the universities and research institutions other than the China Centers for Disease Control, develop a system for efficient exchange of research and program information, and update legislation to reflect the current situation.     

Identification and Characterization of a Novel Single Domain Antibody Against Ebola Virus

Virologica Sinica - Ebola virus (EBOV) belongs to the Filoviridae family and causes severe illnesses such as hemorrhagic fever with a high mortality rate up to 90%. Now two antibody drugs termed...     

The Ebola Virus Matrix Protein Penetrates into the Plasma Membrane: A KEY STEP IN VIRAL PROTEIN 40 (VP40) OLIGOMERIZATION AND VIRAL EGRESS*

Ebola, a fatal virus in humans and non-human primates, has no Food and Drug Administration-approved vaccines or therapeutics. The virus from the Filoviridae family causes hemorrhagic fever, which rapidly progresses and in some cases has a fatality rate near 90%. The Ebola genome encodes seven genes, the most abundantly expressed of which is viral protein 40 (VP40), the major Ebola matrix protein that regulates assembly and egress of the virus. It is well established that VP40 assembles on the inner leaflet of the plasma membrane; however, the mechanistic details of plasma membrane association by VP40 are not well understood. In this study, we used an array of biophysical experiments and cellular assays along with mutagenesis of VP40 to investigate the role of membrane penetration in VP40 assembly and egress. Here we demonstrate that VP40 is able to penetrate specifically into the plasma membrane through an interface enriched in hydrophobic residues in its C-terminal domain. Mutagenesis of this hydrophobic region consisting of Leu²¹³, Ile²⁹³, Leu²⁹⁵, and Val²⁹⁸ demonstrated that membrane penetration is critical to plasma membrane localization, VP40 oligomerization, and viral particle egress. Taken together, VP40 membrane penetration is an important step in the plasma membrane localization of the matrix protein where oligomerization and budding are defective in the absence of key hydrophobic interactions with the membrane.