The SAFARI 2000 – Kalahari Transect Wet Season Campaign of year 2000

Over 50 scientists from eight different countries coordinated research efforts in the Kalahari sand mass in Zambia and Botswana during the 2000 wet season as a part of the Southern African Regional Science Initiative – Kalahari Transect Wet Season Campaign (S2K‐KT Wet Season Campaign). The work focused on change in ecological processes along the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme‐designated Kalahari Transect (KT). Topics included ecosystem structure, function, biogeochemistry, and modeling at the patch, landscape and regional scale. The KT of southern and central Africa follows a sharp precipitation gradient within an otherwise climatically and geographically similar region that contains a widely distributed, physically uniform soil and relatively little variation in elevation. This paper outlines the focus of the SAFARI 2000 research campaign as it relates to this study area and provides references to archived data sets generated during the study. It also describes vegetation patterns, climate, and 2000 wet season meteorological conditions for the region.     

Rainfall‐Tuned Management Facilitates Dry Forest Recovery

Regeneration of original dry forests and shrublands in degraded arid and semiarid ecosystems can be a slow and difficult process. It has been hypothesized that restoration efforts during periods of increased water availability may potentially trigger shifts back to a high vegetation cover depending on several environmental factors that govern the response of vegetation to rainfall. Tuning restoration efforts to climate variability will likely become increasingly important under climate change conditions. The experiences evaluated here are a pioneering effort to reforest arid South American forests. We used a combination of field monitoring and remote sensing images to evaluate the long‐term effects of seeding and herbivore control in local reforestation projects tuned to the forecasted rainy El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1991/1992 and 1997/1998 in North Peru and to assess the regional response of vegetation to these rainy events at a regional scale. We found that managing seed availability in combination with seedling protection from herbivores only yielded persistent higher vegetation cover when implemented on sites without calcareous layers and relatively high water availability determined by the surrounding topography. Our study shows that management tuned to forecasted rainfall events is able to trigger a long‐lasting shift toward higher vegetation cover. We provide a better insight in how environmental factors shape vegetation response to increased rainfall and discuss the implications for ecosystem resilience and restoration.     

Did ciguatera prompt the late Holocene Polynesian voyages of discovery?

The famous Polynesian voyages characterized an intensive network of cultural exchange and colonization that was particularly active from ad 1000 to 1450. But, why would large groups of people leave their homelands to voyage into the unknown? Oceanic voyages are risky, albeit less so today than in the past. Landfalls were not guaranteed improvements over ports of departure. Taking the Cook Islands as an example, we ask whether harmful algal blooms that result in ciguatera fish poisoning in humans prompted past and present emigration pulses of peoples from within Polynesia. We take a multipronged approach to examine our hypothesis, involving: (1) archaeological evidence, (2) ciguatera fish poisoning reports since the 1940s, and (3) climate and temperature oscillations using palaeodatasets. The archaeological records of fish bones and hooks show abrupt changes in fishing practices in post‐ad 1450 records. Sudden dietary shifts are not linked to overfishing, but may be a sign of ciguatera fish poisoning and adjustment of fishing preference. While fishes form the staple diet of Polynesians, such poisoning renders fishes unusable. We show that ciguatera fish poisoning events coincide with Pacific Decadal Oscillations and suggest that the celebrated Polynesian voyages across the Pacific Ocean may not have been random episodes of discovery to colonize new lands, but rather voyages of necessity. A modern analogue (in the 1990s) was the shift towards processed foods in the Cook Islands during ciguatera fish poisoning events, and mass emigration of islanders to New Zealand and Australia.     

The Growth response of slash pine (Pinus elliottii) to climate in the Georgia Coastal Plain

We examined tree-ring growth in a naturally seeded old-growth slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii) stand in coastal Georgia to develop growth-climate models and reconstruct past climatic conditions during the mid and late 1800s. We generated earlywood, latewood, and annual ring chronologies dating to 1818, based on 40 cores collected from 22 trees at the Wormsloe State Historic Site near Savannah, Georgia, with 28 cores dating before 1900. We used correlation and response function analysis to relate tree-ring growth to climatic variables and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Water availability (represented by PDSI and secondarily, precipitation) was the most important factor determining growth for all three series, with latewood and September PDSI showing the strongest relationship. Like other species in the southeastern United States, moisture in the late winter and spring was crucial for earlywood development, while latewood and annual growth was enhanced in cooler, wetter summers, particularly with hurricanes bringing rainfall late in the growing season. Earlywood growth was greater following +ENSO (winter) phases and −NAO (winter) phases – for both indices, times when the northern Georgia coast is often relatively cool and wet. A verified split-calibration regression model based on latewood ring growth showed temporal stability and accounted for 27% of the variation in the observed September PDSI record from 1895 to 2009 (mean reduction in error = 0.21 and coefficient of efficiency = 0.05). During the instrument record, the timing of reconstructed and observed dry and moist periods matched closely; prior to that, reconstructed PDSI values indicated drought from the early 1840s to late 1850s – a period of unusually low latewood growth.     

“El Niño” events recorded in dry-forest species of the lowlands of northwest Peru

The northwest coast of Peru (5°S, 80°W) is very sensitive to and impacted by the climate phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Though mainly desert, this warm, dry region contains an equatorial dry forest. We report the first dendrochronological studies from this region and identify several species that have dendrochronological potential. Short ring-width chronologies of Palo Santo (Bursera graveolens) show a well-developed response to the ENSO signal over the last 50 years and good inter-site correlations. Preliminary isotopic studies in Algarrobo (Prosopis sp.) also show evidence of the 1997–98 El Niño event. ENSO events have a strong effect on the variability in the growth of several species and thereby on the economy of rural communities where the wood is used for housing, cooking, furniture, tools, fodder and medicinal uses. The extensive use of wood in archeological sites also offers the possibility of ultimately developing longer records for some of these species.     

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual‐based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio‐indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long‐lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega‐consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles—hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta—exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the strongest on record—combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = −.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger‐causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region‐wide collaborations.     

Response of a rocky intertidal ecosystem engineer and community dominant to climate change

To evaluate how climate change might impact a competitively dominant ecological engineer, we analysed the growth response of the mussel Mytilus californianus to climate patterns [El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]. Mussels grew faster during warmer climatic events. Growth was initially faster on a more productive cape compared to a less productive cape. Growth rates at the two capes merged in 2002, coincidentally with a several year-long shift from warm to cool PDO conditions. To determine the mechanism underlying this response, we examined growth responses to intertidal sea and air temperatures, phytoplankton, sea level and tide height. Together, water temperature (32%) and food (12.5%) explained 44.5% of the variance in mussel growth; contributions of other factors were not significant. In turn, water temperature and food respond to climate-driven variation in upwelling and other, unknown factors. Understanding responses of ecosystem engineers to climate change will require knowing direct thermal effects and indirect effects of factors altered by temperature change.     

Variations in coccolithophorid production in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific at ODP Site 1240 over the last seven glacial–interglacial cycles

The calcareous nannofossil assemblage from ODP Site 1240 in the equatorial upwelling of the Eastern Pacific was analysed for the last 560 Ka. The chronological framework was set with a combination of isotopic stratigraphy, nannofossil biostratigraphy and one paleomagnetic event.     

Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon

This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers'' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.     

The Seasonal Aggregation of Whale Sharks at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia: Currents, Migrations and the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation

Whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, seasonally aggregate in coastal waters off Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. We review the oceanographic setting of the region and present evidence that such aggregations form as a result of migratory behavior associated with climatic and oceanographic processes. We utilise records of whale shark abundance collected at Ningaloo Reef from dedicated searches by boat and aircraft and from log sheets recorded by the tourism industry. Measures of whale shark abundance derived from log sheet data sets were moderately correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and weakly correlated with coastal sea level, an index of the strength of the Leeuwin Current, and sea surface temperature over the period 1993 to 1998. Abundances of whale sharks derived from boat searches from 1983 to 1992 were also correlated with fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index, except during a three year period from 1988 to 1990. We conclude that, at least in some years, there appears to be a link between the abundance of aggregating whale sharks and the physical and biological oceanography of the region, with greater whale shark numbers in La Niña years. The lack of correlation in other years may be due to a combination of uneven quality of data and/or aggregations occurring in response to a complex interaction between the physical and biological oceanography of the region.