Past climate changes and ecophysiological responses recorded in the isotope ratios of saguaro cactus spines

The stable isotope composition of spines produced serially from the apex of columnar cacti has the potential to be used as a record of changes in climate and physiology. To investigate this potential, we measured the δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and F¹⁴C values of spines from a long-lived columnar cactus, saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea). To determine plant age, we collected spines at 11 different heights along one rib from the stem apex (3.77 m height) to the base of a naturally occurring saguaro. Fractions of modern carbon (F¹⁴C) ranged from 0.9679 to 1.5537, which is consistent with ages between 1950 and 2004. We observed a very strong positive correlation (r = 0.997) between the F¹⁴C age of spines and the age of spines determined from direct and repeated height measurements taken on this individual over the past 37 years. A series of 96 spines collected from this individual had δ¹⁸O values ranging from 38‰ to 50‰ [Vienna standard mean ocean water (VSMOW)] and δ¹³C values from ?11.5‰ to ?8.5‰ [Vienna Peedee belemnite (VPDB)]. The δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values of spines were positively correlated (r = 0.45, P < 0.0001) and showed near-annual oscillations over the ～15-year record. This pattern suggests that seasonal periods of reduced evaporative demand or greater precipitation input may correspond to increased daytime CO₂ uptake. The lowest δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values of spines observed occurred during the 1983 and 1993 El Niño years, suggesting that the stable isotope composition recorded in spine tissue may serve as a proxy for these climate events. We compared empirical models and data from potted experimental cacti to validate these observations and test our hypotheses. The isotopic records presented here are the first ever reported from a chronosequence of cactus spines and demonstrate that tissues of columnar cacti, and potentially other long-lived succulents, may contain a record of past physiological and climatic variation.     

Historical changes in the distributions of invasive and endemic marine invertebrates are contrary to global warming predictions: the effects of decadal climate oscillations

Aim We tested whether a hybrid zone that has formed between an endemic and an invasive species of marine mussel has shifted poleward as expected under a general hypothesis of global warming or has responded instead to decadal climate oscillations. Location We sampled 15 locations on the coast of California, USA, that span the distributions of the two species of marine mussels and their hybrids. Methods Mussels were sampled in 2005–08 and analysed at three nuclear gene loci using methods identical to those used in a study a decade earlier in order to document the genetic architecture of this system. Change in the system was determined by comparing the frequency of species‐specific alleles and multi‐locus genotypes over the intervening decade. Climate variation over the same period was examined by comparing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), upwelling indices and sea surface temperature (SST) during and prior to the study period. Results Contrary to the general expectations of global warming we show that the highly invasive warm‐water mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone formed with the endemic species Mytilus trossulus has rapidly contracted southwards. Mytilus galloprovincialis declined in abundance over the northern third of its geographic range (c. 540 km) and has become rare or absent across the northern 200 km of the range it previously colonized during its initial invasion. The distribution of the native species M. trossulus has remained unchanged over the same time period. Main conclusions The large‐scale range shift in the warm‐water invasive species M. galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone it forms with M. trossulus has been exceptionally rapid and is in the opposite direction to that predicted by the global warming hypotheses. This shift, however, is consistent with decadal climate variation associated with the ENSO and the PDO. Since the biogeography of this system was first described in 1999, the PDO has shifted from a warm phase, dominated by frequent and large El Niño events, to a cold‐phase period, with minimal ENSO activity. Thus recent decadal climate variation can oppose global trends in average temperature and this study illustrates the need to integrate the effects of climate change across multiple time‐scales.     

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.     

A Climate-Based Approach to the Restoration of Fire-Dependent Ecosystems

Recurrent fires are integral to the function of many ecosystems worldwide. The management of fire‐frequented ecosystems requires the application of fire at the appropriate frequency and seasonality, but establishing the natural fire regime for an ecosystem can be problematic. Historical records of fires are often not available, and surrogates for past fires may not exist. We suggest that the relationship between climate and fire can provide an alternative means for inferring past fire regimes in some ecosystems.     

Cross-scale environmental influences on migratory stopover behaviour

Migratory species may be especially sensitive to climate change because their lifecycles are affected by dynamic ecological processes operating at global spatial scales. Insight into environmental effects upon en route decisions by migrants can therefore be a critical first step toward assessing their vulnerability to future climatic shifts. We extracted behaviour-related parameters from a recent formulation of multistate mark–recapture models, and used them to evaluate the importance of variation in local weather and broad-scale climate to decisions made by autumn passerine migrants at a coastal stopover site in Atlantic Canada. We found dramatic interannual fluctuations in the proportion of migrants that were transient (departing within a day of arrival), with annual average values ranging from 24% to 96% over the years 1996–2007. However, the relationships of stopover behaviour (transience and departure probability) to local weather (wind and precipitation) and to regional climatic fluctuations were similar across three distinct species groups and for birds of different fuel-loads, indicating the potential for both immediate (day-to-day) and long-term environmental influences (spanning several seasons). This cross-scale approach contributes valuable information toward the conservation of migrants in the face of a changing climate by (i) quantifying environmental influences on stopover behaviour in broad temporal and geographic contexts, and (ii) demonstrating largely parallel interannual variation in stopover site-use among birds with contrasting migratory timing and strategies.     

The Growth response of slash pine (Pinus elliottii) to climate in the Georgia Coastal Plain

We examined tree-ring growth in a naturally seeded old-growth slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii) stand in coastal Georgia to develop growth-climate models and reconstruct past climatic conditions during the mid and late 1800s. We generated earlywood, latewood, and annual ring chronologies dating to 1818, based on 40 cores collected from 22 trees at the Wormsloe State Historic Site near Savannah, Georgia, with 28 cores dating before 1900. We used correlation and response function analysis to relate tree-ring growth to climatic variables and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Water availability (represented by PDSI and secondarily, precipitation) was the most important factor determining growth for all three series, with latewood and September PDSI showing the strongest relationship. Like other species in the southeastern United States, moisture in the late winter and spring was crucial for earlywood development, while latewood and annual growth was enhanced in cooler, wetter summers, particularly with hurricanes bringing rainfall late in the growing season. Earlywood growth was greater following +ENSO (winter) phases and −NAO (winter) phases – for both indices, times when the northern Georgia coast is often relatively cool and wet. A verified split-calibration regression model based on latewood ring growth showed temporal stability and accounted for 27% of the variation in the observed September PDSI record from 1895 to 2009 (mean reduction in error = 0.21 and coefficient of efficiency = 0.05). During the instrument record, the timing of reconstructed and observed dry and moist periods matched closely; prior to that, reconstructed PDSI values indicated drought from the early 1840s to late 1850s – a period of unusually low latewood growth.     

The SAFARI 2000 – Kalahari Transect Wet Season Campaign of year 2000

Over 50 scientists from eight different countries coordinated research efforts in the Kalahari sand mass in Zambia and Botswana during the 2000 wet season as a part of the Southern African Regional Science Initiative – Kalahari Transect Wet Season Campaign (S2K‐KT Wet Season Campaign). The work focused on change in ecological processes along the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme‐designated Kalahari Transect (KT). Topics included ecosystem structure, function, biogeochemistry, and modeling at the patch, landscape and regional scale. The KT of southern and central Africa follows a sharp precipitation gradient within an otherwise climatically and geographically similar region that contains a widely distributed, physically uniform soil and relatively little variation in elevation. This paper outlines the focus of the SAFARI 2000 research campaign as it relates to this study area and provides references to archived data sets generated during the study. It also describes vegetation patterns, climate, and 2000 wet season meteorological conditions for the region.     

Rainfall‐Tuned Management Facilitates Dry Forest Recovery

Regeneration of original dry forests and shrublands in degraded arid and semiarid ecosystems can be a slow and difficult process. It has been hypothesized that restoration efforts during periods of increased water availability may potentially trigger shifts back to a high vegetation cover depending on several environmental factors that govern the response of vegetation to rainfall. Tuning restoration efforts to climate variability will likely become increasingly important under climate change conditions. The experiences evaluated here are a pioneering effort to reforest arid South American forests. We used a combination of field monitoring and remote sensing images to evaluate the long‐term effects of seeding and herbivore control in local reforestation projects tuned to the forecasted rainy El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1991/1992 and 1997/1998 in North Peru and to assess the regional response of vegetation to these rainy events at a regional scale. We found that managing seed availability in combination with seedling protection from herbivores only yielded persistent higher vegetation cover when implemented on sites without calcareous layers and relatively high water availability determined by the surrounding topography. Our study shows that management tuned to forecasted rainfall events is able to trigger a long‐lasting shift toward higher vegetation cover. We provide a better insight in how environmental factors shape vegetation response to increased rainfall and discuss the implications for ecosystem resilience and restoration.     

Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon

This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers'' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.