Human influences superseded climate to disrupt the 20th century fire regime in Jasper National Park,Canada

To enhance understanding of how climate and humans influenced historical fire occurrence in the montane forests of Jasper National Park, we crossdated fire-scar and tree age samples from 172 plots. We tested effects of drought and climatic variation driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific North American (PNA) pattern on fire occurrence. We also tested whether local droughts were associated with ENSO, PNA, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. We used a combination of instrumental and proxy-climate records to test whether climatic variation explained the absence of fire scars in our study area during the 20th century. From 1646 to 1915, 18 fires burned mainly during drier than average years. Drought years, but not fire years, were associated with positive ENSO and PNA indices, corresponding to warmer conditions with reduced snowpacks. Fire frequency varied through time, although no fire scars have formed since 1915. Potential recording trees present at all plots and climate conducive to fire over multiple years provide evidence that human influences superseded climatic variation to explain the lack of fire scars during the 20th century. Fire suppression significantly altered the fire regime after the formation of Jasper National Park, justifying the ongoing mechanical fuel treatments, prescribed and managed wildfires to improve forest resilience to climate change.     

The effects of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events on intertidal seagrass beds over a long‐term timescale

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can cause dramatic changes in marine communities. However, we know little as to how ENSO events affect tropical seagrass beds over decadal timescales. Therefore, a diverse array of seagrass (Thalassia hemprichii) habitat types were surveyed once every 3 months for 16 years (January 2001 to February 2017) in a tropical intertidal zone that is regularly affected by both ENSO events and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. La Niña and El Niño events had distinct effects on the biomass and growth of T. hemprichii. During La Niña years, higher (a) precipitation levels and (b) seawater nitrogen concentrations led to increases in seagrass leaf productivity, canopy height, and biomass. However, the latter simultaneously stimulated the growth of periphyton on seagrass leaves; this led to decreases in seagrass cover and shoot density. More frequent La Niña events could, then, eventually lead to either a decline in intertidal seagrass beds or a shift to another, less drought‐resistant seagrass species in those regions already characterized by eutrophication due to local anthropogenic activity.     

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.

     

Diversity Patterns of Bornean Butterfly Assemblages

Borneo contains a diverse rainforest butterfly community, but its forests are under threat from logging and ENSO- (El Niño Southern Oscillation) induced fires. Contrasts in butterfly assemblage structure were examined in nine 450 ha landscapes in logged forest, primary unburned continuous and isolated forest, and forest affected by surface fires during the 1997/98 ENSO event. Temporally the effect of the 1997/98 ENSO event was followed in a single burned landscape from 1997 to 2004. In total, 517 species were present in 190 sampling sites. There was a five-fold difference in species richness among landscapes, with highest richness in continuous landscapes and lowest richness in burned landscapes. Richness was also higher in logged forest than proximate unlogged forest. Temporally, species richness dropped dramatically from 1997 to 1998, but afterwards increased remaining, however, substantially lower than pre-ENSO (1997) sampling. Sites in burned landscapes were distinct from other sites in terms of vegetation structure with the slash-and-burn area the most dissimilar to other landscapes. There was much less structure among unburned landscapes. The pattern of butterfly community composition was similar to that of vegetation structure with the community from the slash-and-burn area the most distinct. However, there was much less overlap among sites from different landscapes. Temporally, 1998 possessed the most distinct assemblage when compared to assemblages from other years. The community composition was, however, slowly returning to a pre-disturbance composition. Variance in community composition explained by environmental and spatial factors differed substantially among landscapes. The spatial fraction was the only explanatory component in recently burned landscapes and a proximate small unburned isolate, but explained no variation in logged landscapes. The environmental fraction explained substantial amounts of variation in logged landscapes and the slash-and-burn area. When all landscapes were pooled high proportions of variation in butterfly community composition were explained by both geographic distance between sites and environmental variables. In contrast when only unburned landscapes were considered, most variation was explained by the geographic distance among them. Despite differences among landscapes there was a general pattern of relatively sharp decline in similarity at short distances that levels out over greater distances, a result that agrees with previous studies on other tropical species assemblages.     

Primary production dynamics and climate variability: ecological consequences in semiarid Chile

Increase in rainfall variability has important consequences for organisms in arid and semiarid regions around the world. In South American and Australian deserts, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon greatly influences rainfall patterns, and therefore the dynamics of plant communities. However, the field data needed to assess the effect of climate change on vegetational patterns is difficult to obtain because of the large spatial scale required for such studies. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) characteristics allow the use of several indexes related to vegetational structure. Due to its direct relationship with primary productivity, it is possible to obtain several measures of annual productivity. These include annual plant yield, annual maximum yield, onset of 'greening-up' and senescence phases, length of the 'green' season, vegetation peak, and therefore, the periods when more or less food is available for herbivores. After verification with ground-truth measures, we used NDVI data from two semiarid localities in north-central Chile (Fray Jorge and Aucó) to determine the relationship between rainfall patterns and vegetation cover and productivity related to El Niño phenomenon. With this information we gauge the influence of climatic processes on primary productivity in western South America, an area subject to strong climate variability. We predict significant variation in Chilean semiarid regions due to climate change, affecting mainly the extent and timing of annual growth season of vegetation, and also including a shorter and delayed greening-up season. Also, we predict that important decreases in rainfall levels will not have strong effects on primary production in these semiarid ecosystems.     

Greenhouse gas,upwelling‐favorable winds,and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems

Coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems generally represent the most productive large marine ecosystems of the world's oceans, in terms of both primary production rates and tonnages of exploitable fish produced. The Peruvian upwelling system, in particular, stands out as a major factor in world fish production. The Pacific trade winds have traditionally been considered to be the primary driving force for the upwelling system off Peru, but are projected to weaken as climate change proceeds. This leads to concern that the upwelling process in the Peru system, to which its productivity is linked, may likewise weaken. However, other mechanisms involving greenhouse‐associated intensification of thermal low‐pressure cells over the coastal landmasses of upwelling regions suggest general intensification of wind‐driven ocean upwelling in coastal upwelling regions of the world's oceans. But although certain empirical results have supported this expectation, it has not been consistently corroborated in climate model simulations, possibly because the scale of the coastal intensification may be small relative to the scales that are appropriately reflected in the standard models. Here we summarize available evidence for the intensification mechanism and present a proxy test that uses variations in water vapor, the dominant natural greenhouse gas, to offer multiple‐realization empirical evidence for action of the proposed mechanism in the real world situation. While many potential consequences to the future of marine ecosystems would codepend on climate change‐related changes in the thermocline and nutricline structures, an important subset, involving potential increased propensities for hypoxia, noxious gas eruptions, toxic red tide blooms, and/or jellyfish outbreaks, may depend more directly on changes in the upwelling‐favorable wind itself. A prospective role of fisheries in either mitigating or reinforcing this particular class of effects is suggested.     

Changes in spring arrival of Nearctic-Neotropical migrants attributed to multiscalar climate

Climate-related changes associated with the California marine ecosystem have been documented; however, there are no studies assessing changes in terrestrial vertebrate phenology on the Pacific coast of western North America. We analyze the spring phenology of 21 Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird species in central and northern CA. Using observational and banding data at multiple sites, we evaluate evidence for a change in arrival timing being linked to either nonclimatic or multiscalar climatic explanations. Using correlation analysis, of the 13 species with a significant ( P <0.10) change in arrival, the arrival timing of 10 species (77%) is associated with both temperature and a large-scale climate oscillation index (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; and/or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) at least at one location. Eight of the 13 species (62%) are advancing their migratory timing. All species for which spring arrival is associated with climate at multiple locations are exhibiting changes ( n =5) and all species lacking evidence for association between migration phenology and climate ( n =3) exhibit no change. Migrants tend to arrive earlier in association with warmer temperatures, positive NAO indices, and stronger ENSO indices. Twelve species negatively correlate ( P ≤0.05) with local or regional temperature at least at one location; five species negatively correlate with ENSO. Eleven species' arrival is correlated ( P ≤0.05) with NAO; 10 are negatively associated. After an exhaustive literature search, this is apparently the first documentation of an association between NAO and migratory phenology in western North America.     

Effects of the 1997–1998 El Niño on the cnidarian community of a high turbidity coral reef system (northern Bahia,Brazil)

We are reporting on the results of a 4-year study that allowed for the analysis of the effects of the 1997–1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on the cnidarian community of the naturally high-turbidity reefs of northern Bahia, Brazil. Cnidarian densities were significantly different between pre- and post-ENSO years, with significant consequent changes in community composition. BIOENV analysis identified variations in turbidity, mean temperature variance, and cloud cover as the factors best explaining changes in the community. We suggest that the 1997–1998 ENSO event, the most intense on record, had a differential effect on the cnidarian community. Highest mortalities were suffered by minute hydroid colonies, partial mortality by octocorals and actiniarians, while large hydroid colonies and scleractinians were the least affected. Such an ability to survive under the stressful environmental regime imposed by this ENSO event is attributed to the presence of morphological pre-adaptations (e.g., size of colony polyps, abundance of certain nematocyst types) and the inherent phenotypic plasticity that results from long-term exposure to naturally stressful conditions.     

Historical changes in the distributions of invasive and endemic marine invertebrates are contrary to global warming predictions: the effects of decadal climate oscillations

Aim We tested whether a hybrid zone that has formed between an endemic and an invasive species of marine mussel has shifted poleward as expected under a general hypothesis of global warming or has responded instead to decadal climate oscillations. Location We sampled 15 locations on the coast of California, USA, that span the distributions of the two species of marine mussels and their hybrids. Methods Mussels were sampled in 2005–08 and analysed at three nuclear gene loci using methods identical to those used in a study a decade earlier in order to document the genetic architecture of this system. Change in the system was determined by comparing the frequency of species‐specific alleles and multi‐locus genotypes over the intervening decade. Climate variation over the same period was examined by comparing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), upwelling indices and sea surface temperature (SST) during and prior to the study period. Results Contrary to the general expectations of global warming we show that the highly invasive warm‐water mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone formed with the endemic species Mytilus trossulus has rapidly contracted southwards. Mytilus galloprovincialis declined in abundance over the northern third of its geographic range (c. 540 km) and has become rare or absent across the northern 200 km of the range it previously colonized during its initial invasion. The distribution of the native species M. trossulus has remained unchanged over the same time period. Main conclusions The large‐scale range shift in the warm‐water invasive species M. galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone it forms with M. trossulus has been exceptionally rapid and is in the opposite direction to that predicted by the global warming hypotheses. This shift, however, is consistent with decadal climate variation associated with the ENSO and the PDO. Since the biogeography of this system was first described in 1999, the PDO has shifted from a warm phase, dominated by frequent and large El Niño events, to a cold‐phase period, with minimal ENSO activity. Thus recent decadal climate variation can oppose global trends in average temperature and this study illustrates the need to integrate the effects of climate change across multiple time‐scales.     

Theileria parva seroprevalence in traditionally kept cattle in southern Zambia and El Nino

Sero-epidemiological surveys involving 27,526 cattle over a period of 8 years show that Theileria parva, the parasite causing East Coast fever (ECF) is found throughout southern Zambia. Higher values of T. parva sero-prevalence were observed in the plateau districts of Monze, Choma and Mazabuka than in the valley districts of Siavonga and Sinazongwe. Our results reveal a strong association between high T. parva sero-prevalence and the presence of the periodic climatic phenomenon known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation. More T. parva sero-positive samples were recorded during El Nino years (1997/98) (P<0.001) than other years in the study period. From this association, we conclude that Multiple El Nino Southern Oscillation Indices can be used to predict years with high or low ECF infection prevalence thereby contributing to the improved control of ECF in the area.