Parameter estimation techniques for interaction and redistribution models: a predator-prey example

Summary The use of parameter estimation techniques for partial differential equations is illustrated using a predatorprey model. Whereas ecologists have often estimated parameters in models, they have not previously been able to do so for models that describe interactions in heterogeneous environments. The techniques we describe for partial differential equations will be generally useful for models of interacting species in spatially complex environments and for models that include the movement of organisms. We demonstrate our methods using field data from a ladybird beetle (Coccinella septempunctata) and aphid (Uroleucon nigrotuberculatum) interaction. Our parameter estimation algorithms can be employed to identify models that explain better than 80% of the observed variance in aphid and ladybird densities. Such parameter estimation techniques can bridge the gap between detail-rich experimental studies and abstract mathematical models. By relating the particular bestfit models identified from our experimental data to other information on Coccinella behavior, we conclude that a term describing local taxis of ladybirds towards prey (aphids in this case) is needed in the model.     

Evolutionary trends of the hairy-faceSaguinus in terms of the dental and cranial morphology

Shape variations in the dentition and the cranium were analyzed for sevenSaguinus forms of the hairy-face tamarin by applying the factor analysis method. The results obtained for the dental and cranial measurements were almost consistent with each other. The magnitude of the difference in shape factors between theS. nigricollis group and theS. midas group is appreciably larger than that between the former group and theS. mystax group. If the ancestral geographic centre of origin is postulated as being within the region which is inhabited by the livingS. nigricollis group, the morphological distances between any pairs of groups correlate well with the geographic distances between them. Concerning the dental and cranial morphologies, the physical changes in the three species group probably took place in two directions; that is, from theS. nigricollis group to theS. mystax group, and from theS. nigricollis group to theS. midas group. The forms belonging to each species group are more closely related to each other, with the exception ofS. imperator in theS. mystax group. The uniqueness ofS. imperator was clearly demonstrated by factor analysis and distance analysis. In theS. mystax group, although still hypothetical,S. imperator may have been related only through the basic ancestral stock toS. labiatus andS. mystax.     

Statistical methods for model comparison in parameter estimation problems for distributed systems

In this note we outline some recent results on the development of a statistical testing methodology for inverse problems involving partial differential equation models. Applications to several problems from biology are presented. The statistical tests, which are in the spirit of analysis of variance (ANOVA), are based on asymptotic distributional results for estimators and residuals in a least squares approach.Research supported in part under grants NSF MCS 8504316, NASA NAG-1-517, and AFOSRF-49620-86-C-0111. Part of this research was carried out while the first author was a visiting scientist at the Institute for Computer Applications in Science and Engineering (ICASE), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, which is operated under NASA contracts NASI-18107 and NASI-18605     

Regional influences on small-scale vegetational heterogeneity within grasslands in the Serengeti National Park,Tanzania

An index of vegetational heterogeneity in 16 grassland communities in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, was calculated using mean percent distance (MPD) among spatially separated quadrats. To determine whether regional factors such as annual precipitation, fire, soil sodicity, herbivore utilization, or percentage of species having clonal growth patterns influenced the amount of heterogeneity measured in individual grassland communities, the index was related to these factors by an interactively constructed multiple-regression model.Community heterogeneity varied in a curvilinear manner along a north-to-south transect; maximum values occurred in the center of the park with lower values near the northern and southern borders. Subsurface concentrations of Na⁺ and the presence or absence of mound-building termites were incorporated into the model, which explained 55% of the variability in grassland heterogeneity.Abbreviations PD= Percentage Distance - MPD= Mean Percentage Distance     

A method for determining overall protein fold from NMR distance restraints

Summary We describe a simple method for determining the overall fold of a polypeptide chain from NOE-derived distance restraints. The method uses a reduced representation consisting of two particles per residue, and a force field containing pseudo-bond and pseudo-angle terms, an electrostatic term, but no van der Waals or hard shell repulsive terms. The method is fast and robust, requiring relatively few distance restraints to approximate the correct fold, and the correct mirror image is readily determined. The method is easily implemented using commercially available molecular modeling software.     

不同利用方式下稻田效益的综合评价

一、引言评价是多目标系统优化和决策的基础。和任何其他农业生态系统一样,稻田生态系统具有多目标、多功能的特点,单项指标难以反映系统的优劣。目前,川东南地区稻田开发利用方式多种多样,但效益评价主要是采用简单的比较分析或粗放的定性描述,尚未形成系统的     

On estimating mortalities from osteological age data

A statistical method (based on the maximum likelihood principle) for estimating mortalities of skeletal populations is presented. The method can be applied both when osteological age groups are not overlapping as well as when they are. The results are presented as point estimates and as confidence intervals around these. The method is applied to two series from the Middle Ages: Westerhus and Helgeandsholmen.