Risks of Biological Invasion on the Belt and Road

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Enhancement of tomogram interpretability using the locked self-rotation function

The interpretation of cryo-electron tomograms of macromolecular complexes can be difficult because of the large amount of noise and because of the missing wedge effect. Here it is shown how the presence of rotational symmetry in a sample can be utilized to enhance the quality of a tomographic analysis. The orientation of symmetry axes in a sub-tomogram can be determined using a locked self-rotation function. Given this knowledge, the sub-tomogram density can then be averaged to improve its interpretability. Sub-tomograms of the icosahedral bacteriophage phiX174 are used to demonstrate the procedure.     

Integrating Batteries in the Future Swiss Electricity Supply System: A Consequential Environmental Assessment

Stationary batteries are projected to play a role in the electricity system of Switzerland after 2030. By enabling the integration of surplus production from intermittent renewables, energy storage units displace electricity production from different sources and potentially create environmental benefits. Nevertheless, batteries can also cause substantial environmental impacts during their manufacturing process and through the extraction of raw materials. A prospective consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) of lithium metal polymer and lithium‐ion stationary batteries is undertaken to quantify potential environmental benefits and drawbacks. Projections are integrated into the LCA model: Energy scenarios are used to obtain marginal electricity supply mixes, and projections about the battery performances and the recycling process are sourced from the literature. The roles of key parameters and methodological choices in the results are systematically investigated. The results demonstrate that the displacement of marginal electricity sources determines the environmental implications of using batteries. In the reference scenario representing current policy, the displaced electricity mix is dominated by natural gas combined cycle units. In this scenario, the use of batteries generates environmental benefits in 12 of the 16 impact categories assessed. Nevertheless, there is a significant reduction in achievable environmental benefits when batteries are integrated into the power supply system in a low‐carbon scenario because the marginal electricity production, displaced using batteries, already has a reduced environmental impact. The direct impacts of batteries mainly originate from upstream manufacturing processes, which consume electricity and mining activities related to the extraction of materials such as copper and bauxite.     

Type III-A CRISPR-Cas Csm Complexes: Assembly,Periodic RNA Cleavage,DNase Activity Regulation,and Autoimmunity

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Predicting coral community recovery using multi‐species population dynamics models

Predicting whether, how, and to what degree communities recover from disturbance remain major challenges in ecology. To predict recovery of coral communities we applied field survey data of early recovery dynamics to a multi‐species integral projection model that captured key demographic processes driving coral population trajectories, notably density‐dependent larval recruitment. After testing model predictions against field observations, we updated the model to generate projections of future coral communities. Our results indicated that communities distributed across an island landscape followed different recovery trajectories but would reassemble to pre‐disturbed levels of coral abundance, composition, and size, thus demonstrating persistence in the provision of reef habitat and other ecosystem services. Our study indicates that coral community dynamics are predictable when accounting for the interplay between species life‐history, environmental conditions, and density‐dependence. We provide a quantitative framework for evaluating the ecological processes underlying community trajectory and characteristics important to ecosystem functioning.     

An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder

Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events, which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during 1993–2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5 years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival. These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they are likely to have negative effects.     

西藏唐北地区湖泊动态及空间格局预测

本研究评估了西藏唐古拉山以北地区(唐北地区)湖泊动态并预测了湖泊空间格局变化.使用面向对象分类和光谱角向量变化检测方法生成了2000-2015年西藏唐北地区每5年一期的生态系统分布数据.以此为基础,分析了湖泊与其他生态系统之间的转换和空间格局特征,评估了湖泊空间格局的动态及其与相关自然地理因素的关系.通过增强回归树识别了不同因素对湖泊动态的贡献,使用GEOMOD模型预测了湖泊到2030年的空间变化.结果表明:唐北地区在2000-2015年间湖泊增加了14.2%,是唐北地区生态系统变化的主要形式之一.区域内15个面积大于10 km2的湖泊有10个增加,另有5个减少,且缩减量较低.通过空间格局分析发现,唐北地区湖泊斑块表现为面积和数量同时增加,大斑块面积比重略有上升.扩张幅度高的湖泊多分布于海拔高、坡度大、温度低、降水少、距离冰川近的区域.位于现有湖泊周边、温度低、降水少、坡度小的区域转变为湖泊的几率较高.根据过去15年的趋势,到2030年,唐北地区湖泊将继续增加119 km2,主要变化形式从大湖扩张转变为小型水面扩张.     

未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响

茶是对气候变化敏感的重要经济作物, 评价全球气候变化对茶分布和生产的影响对相关国家经济发展和茶农的生计至关重要。本研究基于全球858个茶分布点和6个气候因子数据, 利用物种分布模型预测全球茶的潜在适宜分布区及其在2070年的不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下的变化。结果表明: 当前茶在五大洲均有适宜分布区, 主要集中在亚洲、非洲和南美洲, 并且最冷季平均温和最暖季降水量主导了茶的分布。预计2070年, 茶的适宜分布区变化在不同的大洲、国家和气候情景间将存在差异。具体来说, 茶的适宜分布区总面积将会减少, 减少的区域主要位于低纬度地区, 而中高纬度地区的适宜分布区将扩张, 由此可能导致茶的适宜分布区向北移动; 重要的产茶国中, 阿根廷、缅甸、越南等茶适宜分布区面积会减少57.8%-95.8%, 而中国和日本的适宜分布面积则会增加2.7%-31.5%。未来全球新增的适宜分布区中, 约有68%的地区土地覆盖类型为自然植被, 因此可能导致新茶树种植园的开垦和自然植被及生物多样性保护产生冲突。