Indices of reproductive skew depend on average reproductive success

Several indices of reproductive skew, which quantify the degree of unequal partitioning of reproductive output among members in an animal society, have been proposed. Here we point out the drawbacks of these indices. The most serious problem is the dependence of the indices on mean reproductive success: skew values tend to be larger, as average numbers of offspring decrease, due to random sampling error in numbers of offspring. Thus it is difficult to compare societies with different average lifetime reproductive success using these indices, even though we have presented methods to calculate the expected reproductive skew caused by random sampling error, especially when average numbers of offspring are small, as is often the case with cooperatively breeding vertebrates. As an alternative, we propose using the spatial dispersion indices of population ecology (Morisita's index or its standardized version) for the measurement of reproductive skew. These indices are almost independent of average fecundity and have their own method of testing for random variation in offspring numbers. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of species and habitat positional errors on the performance and interpretation of species distribution models

Aim A key assumption in species distribution modelling is that both species and environmental data layers contain no positional errors, yet this will rarely be true. This study assesses the effect of introduced positional errors on the performance and interpretation of species distribution models. Location Baixo Alentejo region of Portugal. Methods Data on steppe bird occurrence were collected using a random stratified sampling design on a 1‐km² pixel grid. Environmental data were sourced from satellite imagery and digital maps. Error was deliberately introduced into the species data as shifts in a random direction of 0–1, 2–3, 4–5 and 0–5 pixels. Whole habitat layers were shifted by 1 pixel to cause mis‐registration, and the cumulative effect of one to three shifted layers investigated. Distribution models were built for three species using three algorithms with three replicates. Test models were compared with controls without errors. Results Positional errors in the species data led to a drop in model performance (larger errors having larger effects – typically up to 10% drop in area under the curve on average), although not enough for models to be rejected. Model interpretation was more severely affected with inconsistencies in the contributing variables. Errors in the habitat layers had similar although lesser effects. Main conclusions Models with species positional errors are hard to detect, often statistically good, ecologically plausible and useful for prediction, but interpreting them is dangerous. Mis‐registered habitat layers produce smaller effects probably because shifting entire layers does not break down the correlation structure to the same extent as random shifts in individual species observations. Spatial autocorrelation in the habitat layers may protect against species positional errors to some extent but the relationship is complex and requires further work. The key recommendation must be that positional errors should be minimised through careful field design and data processing.     

High error rates for avian molecular sex identification primer sets applied to molted feathers

ABSTRACT Molted feathers are becoming increasingly important as a source of DNA for identifying the sex of individuals, and accurate methods for molecular sex identification are needed. Three molecular sex identification primer sets have been developed for use in nearly all nonratite birds, but performance of these primer sets has not been evaluated for molted feathers. For two species of birds, the Ring‐necked Pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) and the Scarlet Macaw (Ara macao), we evaluated success and error rates among primer sets using DNA from molted feathers and assessed the percentage of times an incorrect sex would be assigned when analyses are completed in duplicate. Amplification success rates differed among the primer sets for both species, ranging from 67.5% to 89.2% (P= 0.0002 and 0.009), and error rates were high, ranging from 1.9% to 24.2%. Success rates and error rates were not consistent between species and among primer sets. To improve the accuracy of molecular sex identification tests when using molted feathers, we suggest determining acceptable confidence levels in the accuracy of sex assignment, conducting pilot tests to evaluate the performance of different primer sets, and using high‐resolution electrophoresis systems to increase detection of errors.     

Sample size re‐estimation in clinical trials

Adaptive clinical trials are becoming very popular because of their flexibility in allowing mid‐stream changes of sample size, endpoints, populations, etc. At the same time, they have been regarded with mistrust because they can produce bizarre results in very extreme settings. Understanding the advantages and disadvantages of these rapidly developing methods is a must. This paper reviews flexible methods for sample size re‐estimation when the outcome is continuous.     

Effects of sampling method on foliar δ13C of Leymus chinensis at different scales

Stable carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C) usually shows a negative relationship with precipitation at a large scale. We hypothesized that sampling method affects foliar δ¹³C and its response pattern to precipitation. We selected 11 sites along a precipitation gradient in Inner Mongolia and collected leaves of Leymus chinensis with five or six replications repeatedly in each site from 2009 to 2011. Additionally, we collected leaves of L. chinensis separately from two types of grassland (grazed and fenced) in 2011. Foliar δ¹³C values of all samples were measured. We compared the patterns that foliar δ¹³C to precipitation among different years or different sample sizes, the differences of foliar δ¹³C between grazed and fenced grassland. Whether actual annual precipitation (AAP) or mean annual precipitation (MAP), it was strongly correlated with foliar δ¹³C every year. Significant difference was found between the slopes of foliar δ¹³C to AAP and MAP every year, among the slopes of foliar δ¹³C to AAP from 2009 to 2011. The more samples used at each site the lower and convergent P‐values of the linear regression test between foliar δ¹³C and precipitation. Furthermore, there was significant lower foliar δ¹³C value in presence of grazed type than fenced type grassland. These findings provide evidence that there is significant effect of sampling method to foliar δ¹³C and its response pattern to precipitation of L. chinensis. Our results have valuable implications in methodology for future field sampling studies.     

PEDIGREE ERROR DUE TO EXTRA‐PAIR REPRODUCTION SUBSTANTIALLY BIASES ESTIMATES OF INBREEDING DEPRESSION

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of inbreeding and inbreeding depression requires unbiased estimation of inbreeding depression across diverse mating systems. However, studies estimating inbreeding depression often measure inbreeding with error, for example, based on pedigree data derived from observed parental behavior that ignore paternity error stemming from multiple mating. Such paternity error causes error in estimated coefficients of inbreeding (f) and reproductive success and could bias estimates of inbreeding depression. We used complete “apparent” pedigree data compiled from observed parental behavior and analogous “actual” pedigree data comprising genetic parentage to quantify effects of paternity error stemming from extra‐pair reproduction on estimates of f, reproductive success, and inbreeding depression in free‐living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia). Paternity error caused widespread error in estimates of f and male reproductive success, causing inbreeding depression in male and female annual and lifetime reproductive success and juvenile male survival to be substantially underestimated. Conversely, inbreeding depression in adult male survival tended to be overestimated when paternity error was ignored. Pedigree error stemming from extra‐pair reproduction therefore caused substantial and divergent bias in estimates of inbreeding depression that could bias tests of evolutionary theories regarding inbreeding and inbreeding depression and their links to variation in mating system.     

Post-natal heart adaptation in a knock-in mouse model of calsequestrin 2-linked recessive catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia

Cardiac calsequestrin (CASQ2) contributes to intracellular Ca²⁺ homeostasis by virtue of its low-affinity/high-capacity Ca²⁺ binding properties, maintains sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) architecture and regulates excitation–contraction coupling, especially or exclusively upon β-adrenergic stimulation. Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) is an inherited arrhythmogenic disease associated with cardiac arrest in children or young adults. Recessive CPVT variants are due to mutations in the CASQ2 gene. Molecular and ultra-structural properties were studied in hearts of CASQ2^R33Q/R33Q and of CASQ2^−/− mice from post-natal day 2 to week 8. The drastic reduction of CASQ2-R33Q is an early developmental event and is accompanied by down-regulation of triadin and junctin, and morphological changes of jSR and of SR-transverse-tubule junctions. Although endoplasmic reticulum stress is activated, no signs of either apoptosis or autophagy are detected. The other model of recessive CPVT, the CASQ2^−/− mouse, does not display the same adaptive pattern. Expression of CASQ2-R33Q influences molecular and ultra-structural heart development; post-natal, adaptive changes appear capable of ensuring until adulthood a new pathophysiological equilibrium.