Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks

Contact network epidemiology is an approach to modeling the spread of infectious diseases that explicitly considers patterns of person-to-person contacts within a community. Contacts can be asymmetric, with a person more likely to infect one of their contacts than to become infected by that contact. This is true for some sexually transmitted diseases that are more easily caught by women than men during heterosexual encounters; and for severe infectious diseases that cause an average person to seek medical attention and thereby potentially infect health care workers (HCWs) who would not, in turn, have an opportunity to infect that average person. Here we use methods from percolation theory to develop a mathematical framework for predicting disease transmission through semi-directed contact networks in which some contacts are undirected-the probability of transmission is symmetric between individuals-and others are directed-transmission is possible only in one direction. We find that the probability of an epidemic and the expected fraction of a population infected during an epidemic can be different in semi-directed networks, in contrast to the routine assumption that these two quantities are equal. We furthermore demonstrate that these methods more accurately predict the vulnerability of HCWs and the efficacy of various hospital-based containment strategies during outbreaks of severe respiratory diseases.     

滇西北香格里拉县大型真菌资源及其利用现状

香格里拉县（中旬县）位于云南省西北部,该区域内地形地貌复杂,海拔高差悬殊,兼有温带和寒温带高山气候类型。该区具有典型的温性、寒温性针叶林和寒温性常绿阔叶林以及针阔混交林,其中有不少是能与大型真菌形成共生关系的树种,如云南松（Pinus yunnanensis Franch．）、高山松（P．densata Mast．）、川滇高山栎（Quercus aquifolioides Rehd．etWils．）、灰背栎（Q．senescens Hand．-Mazz．）以及高山桦（Betula delavayi Franch．）和白桦（B．platyphylla Suk．）等。     

豫中褐土耕地土壤性质空间分异及质量评价

以河南省中部褐土集中分布区禹州县文殊镇为例,基于GIS对该镇进行500 m×500 m规则网格布点248个,将布点图层与土壤图进行叠加分析建立空间数据库,作为野外GPS定位精确采样的依据.野外实际共采集202个点的土壤样品（0～20 cm）,其中随机均匀选取34个点进行容重环刀采样.获取有机质、速效K、速效P、pH值、全N、全P、质地、阳离子交换量(CEC)、缓效K和容重10项土壤指标作为耕地土壤质量评价的因素.对指标进行数据统计分析,运用层次分析法（AHP）计算排列出评价因子的权重,运用普通Kriging插值法得出研究区10项土壤理化性质空间分异及土壤质量等级分布和面积.结果表明：研究区褐土耕地土壤质量属于较好的水平,其中优、中等占95%以上,差等只有不到5%.     

云南省腾冲县药用维管植物资源与多样性

研究区域药用植物资源的分布与多样性,可为区域药用植物资源保护和开发利用提供科学依据。于2010-2011年期间,采用野外调查、标本采集、文献资料与标本查阅等方法,对腾冲县药用维管植物资源进行了系统研究。结果表明:腾冲县有药用维管植物153科450属651种,其中蕨类植物32科51属68种,裸子植物仅有3科3属4种,被子植物118科396属579种。腾冲县药用植物优势科为唇形科、菊科和豆科。从药用部位来看,全草类植物比例较高,其次是根和根茎类。按药用功效划分,腾冲药用维管植物以清热、祛风湿和活血化瘀类药用植物居多。在此基础上,提出了加强县域药用植物种质资源合理开发和有效保护的建议与措施。     

军队医院文职人员职业性质及社会地位现状的调查研究

目的:分析军队医院文职人员的社会性质及地位,调查现役干部对文职人员性质地位的认知情况,为开设针对性的教育管理工作提供理论指导。方法:对我院56名现役干部和78名文职人员进行问卷调查,对结果进行汇总研究,分析医院文职人员的现状及干部对其性质地位的认知情况。结果:现役干部对文职人员缺乏足够的理解,存在受阻、延迟和弱化的现象;文职人员本身由于对自身权利义务认识不足以及在情感上难以融入军营,身份认同存在难度。结论:提高对军队文职人员的认识,充分发挥军队文职人员队伍的作用,必须提升文职人员的社会效应,加强教育管理,完善培养机制,多方面提升对军队文职人员的认知。     

内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化景观格局变化特征

利用景观分析软件Fragstats 3.3和内蒙古多伦县1960、1975、1987、1995、2000、2005年6期遥感影像解译结果,分析了1960—2005年间土地沙漠化景观格局变化.结果表明:1960—1995年间研究区土地沙漠化面积呈先增后减趋势,总沙漠化面积增加212.70km2,沙漠化斑块数先增多后减少,景观多样性和均匀性上升,轻度、中度、重度沙漠化斑块形状趋向简单;1995—2005年间研究区沙漠化斑块数大幅增加,景观多样性和均匀性下降,轻度、中度、重度沙漠化斑块形状趋向复杂;严重沙漠化斑块形状在1960年以后一直趋向复杂化.整个景观在研究期间表现为完整-破碎-完整-破碎的趋势,由轻度到严重沙漠化,其景观类型的破碎化程度逐渐降低.     

浙江磐安红叶树种资源及其应用调查

对浙江省磐安县红叶树种资源及其应用情况进行初步调查,结果表明,该县共有乔木、灌木、藤本红叶木本植物37种,分属19科26属,其中,落叶乔木所占比例最大,有21种,占该县红叶树种的56.8%。根据叶片变色规律可分成秋叶变红、嫩叶红色、秋叶和嫩叶均呈红色、常年有红叶等四大类型,种数最多的是秋叶变红类,有26种,占该县红叶树种的70.3%。本文对部分重要的红叶树种的园林应用价值进行综合评价,并对该县红叶树种资源的开发利用提出建议。     

Deer Herbivory as an Ecological Constraint to Restoration of Degraded Riparian Corridors

Ungulate herbivory can impact riparian vegetation in several ways, such as by reducing vigor or reproductive output of mature plants, and through increased mortality of seedlings and saplings. Much work has focused on the effects of livestock grazing within riparian corridors, while few studies have addressed the influence of native ungulate herbivory on riparian vegetation. This study investigated the effect of deer herbivory on riparian regeneration along three streams with degraded riparian corridors in Mendocino County, California. We utilized existing stream restoration efforts by private landowners and natural resource agencies to compare six deer exclosures with six upstream control plots. Livestock were excluded from both exclosure and control plots. Three of the deer exclosures had been in place for 15 years, one for 6 years, and two for 4 years. The abundance and size distribution of woody riparian plant species such as Salix exigua, S. laevigata, S. lasiolepis, Alnus rhombifolia, and Fraxinus latifolia were quantified for each exclosure and control plot. The mean density of saplings in deer exclosures was 0.49 ± 0.15/m², while the mean density of saplings in control plots was 0.05 ± 0.02/m². Within exclosures, 35% of saplings were less than 1 m and 65% were greater than 1 m; within control plots, 97% of saplings were less than 1 m in height. The fact that little regeneration had occurred in control plots suggests that deer herbivory can substantially reduce the rate of recovery of woody riparian species within degraded riparian corridors. Exclusionary fencing has demonstrated promising results for riparian restoration in a region with intense deer herbivory.     

德清县生态农业建设综合评价

应用综合指数法对德清县1990～1998年的生态农业建设进行综合评价。结果显示德清县生态农业系统的综合效益及资源利用、生态、经济和社会功能效益都呈上升趋势,其中1998年的综合效益指数比1990年提高了1．36倍．各效益指数在上升过程中出现波动,说明德清县生态农业建设还存在一些不足,尤其是农村产业结构调整、乡镇企业污染、系统稳定性等有待进一步改善．     

吉林汪清新兴遗址第1地点调查与试掘简报

新兴遗址第1地点位于吉林省汪清县嘎呀河支流前河北岸的二级阶地,2018年调查发现,2019年对该地点进行了复查和试掘,试掘面积14 m²。采集和试掘发现标本131件,以石制品为主,包括石核、石片、石叶、细石叶、刮削器、砍砸器、尖状器、手斧和磨制石器,此外还发现有少量夹砂陶片。总体来看该遗址包含旧石器和新石器两期文化遗存,其中旧石器时代遗存以石叶和细石叶为主要技术特征,石制品原料以硅质页岩和黑曜岩为主,根据石制品技术特征和地层堆积情况判断,年代与临近的黑龙江穆棱市康乐遗址年代相近,为距今10000年前后;新石器时代文化遗存属图们江流域金谷文化范畴。