Modeling nutrients,oxygen and critical phosphorus loading in a shallow reservoir in China with a coupled water quality – Macrophytes model

Many macrophyte-dominated clear lakes switch to a phytoplankton-dominated turbid state when the lake becomes eutrophic. An existing Yuqiao Reservoir Water Quality Model (YRWQM) and the macrophyte submodel were coupled to simulate the effect of submerged macrophytes on nutrients and dissolve oxygen cycles in a shallow reservoir in China. The level of phosphorus loading in a transition from a clear to turbid state was addressed using the integrated model. The model runs from seedling establishment until dying out, from March 1 to July 18 in 2009. The simulations were performed for a contingent range of P loadings, starting from three different initial conditions. The results indicated that the integrated model improves accuracy of predictions compared to YRWQM. The concentrations of nutrients declined slightly during the macrophyte growth period in the reservoir and dissolved oxygen increased slightly. Although nutrient concentrations increased by submerged macrophyte release during the extinction period, the effect on the nutrients was less than that of transfer with nutrient-rich water. More released nutrients may enhance increases in substantial abundance. The critical phosphorus loading level during a switch from the clear to turbid state was estimated by these scenarios. The threshold for the switch is ∼6.1 mgP m⁻² d⁻¹ with an initial total phosphorus concentration of 160 μg l⁻¹. Moreover, the results demonstrated that the switch was also dependent on the initial total phosphorus concentration. These results suggest that the reservoir in a clear water state is at risk of a switch as nutrient levels are close to the critical levels.     

A quantitative structure-activity relationship study for structurally diverse HIV-1 protease inhibitors: contribution of conformational flexibility to inhibitory activity

In this study, we investigated by linear regression model the SAR data of the 15 HIV-1 protease inhibitors possessing structurally diverse scaffolds. First, a regression model was developed only using the enzyme-inhibitor interaction energy as a term of the model, but did not provide a good correlation with the inhibitory activity (R² = 0.580 and Q² = 0.500). Then, we focused on the conformational flexibility of the inhibitors which may represent the diversity of the inhibitors, and added two conformational parameters into the model, respectively: the number of rotatable bonds of ligands (ΔSrot) and the distortion energy of ligands (ΔElig). The regression model by adding ΔElig successfully improved the quality of the model (R² = 0.771 and Q² = 0.713) while the model with ΔSrot was unsuccessful. The prediction for a training inhibitor by the ΔElig model also showed good agreement with experimental activity. These results suggest that the conformational flexibility of HIV-1 protease inhibitors directly contributes to the enzyme inhibition.     

One size does not fit all: Customizing MCMC methods for hierarchical models using NIMBLE

Improved efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo facilitates all aspects of statistical analysis with Bayesian hierarchical models. Identifying strategies to improve MCMC performance is becoming increasingly crucial as the complexity of models, and the run times to fit them, increases. We evaluate different strategies for improving MCMC efficiency using the open‐source software NIMBLE (R package nimble) using common ecological models of species occurrence and abundance as examples. We ask how MCMC efficiency depends on model formulation, model size, data, and sampling strategy. For multiseason and/or multispecies occupancy models and for N‐mixture models, we compare the efficiency of sampling discrete latent states vs. integrating over them, including more vs. fewer hierarchical model components, and univariate vs. block‐sampling methods. We include the common MCMC tool JAGS in comparisons. For simple models, there is little practical difference between computational approaches. As model complexity increases, there are strong interactions between model formulation and sampling strategy on MCMC efficiency. There is no one‐size‐fits‐all best strategy, but rather problem‐specific best strategies related to model structure and type. In all but the simplest cases, NIMBLE's default or customized performance achieves much higher efficiency than JAGS. In the two most complex examples, NIMBLE was 10–12 times more efficient than JAGS. We find NIMBLE is a valuable tool for many ecologists utilizing Bayesian inference, particularly for complex models where JAGS is prohibitively slow. Our results highlight the need for more guidelines and customizable approaches to fit hierarchical models to ensure practitioners can make the most of occupancy and other hierarchical models. By implementing model‐generic MCMC procedures in open‐source software, including the NIMBLE extensions for integrating over latent states (implemented in the R package nimbleEcology), we have made progress toward this aim.     

Tracking unstable states: ecosystem dynamics in a changing world

Ecological systems can show complex and sometimes abrupt responses to environmental change, with important implications for their resilience. Theories of alternate stable states have been used to predict regime shifts of ecosystems as equilibrium responses to sufficiently slow environmental change. The actual rate of environmental change is a key factor affecting the response, yet we are still lacking a non-equilibrium theory that explicitly considers the influence of this rate of environmental change. We present a metacommunity model of predator–prey interactions displaying multiple stable states, and we impose an explicit rate of environmental change in habitat quality (carrying capacity) and connectivity (dispersal rate). We study how regime shifts depend on the rate of environmental change and compare the outcome with a stability analysis in the corresponding constant environment. Our results reveal that in a changing environment, the community can track states that are unstable in the constant environment. This tracking can lead to regime shifts, including local extinctions, that are not predicted by alternative stable state theory. In our metacommunity, tracking unstable states also controls the maintenance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial synchrony. Tracking unstable states can also lead to regime shifts that may be reversible or irreversible. Our study extends current regime shift theories to integrate rate-dependent responses to environmental change. It reveals the key role of unstable states for predicting transient dynamics and long-term resilience of ecological systems to climate change.     

Facultative mutualisms: A double‐edged sword for foundation species in the face of anthropogenic global change

Ecosystems worldwide depend on habitat‐forming foundation species that often facilitate themselves with increasing density and patch size, while also engaging in facultative mutualisms. Anthropogenic global change (e.g., climate change, eutrophication, overharvest, land‐use change), however, is causing rapid declines of foundation species‐structured ecosystems, often typified by sudden collapse. Although disruption of obligate mutualisms involving foundation species is known to precipitate collapse (e.g., coral bleaching), how facultative mutualisms (i.e., context‐dependent, nonbinding reciprocal interactions) affect ecosystem resilience is uncertain. Here, we synthesize recent advancements and combine these with model analyses supported by real‐world examples, to propose that facultative mutualisms may pose a double‐edged sword for foundation species. We suggest that by amplifying self‐facilitative feedbacks by foundation species, facultative mutualisms can increase foundation species’ resistance to stress from anthropogenic impact. Simultaneously, however, mutualism dependency can generate or exacerbate bistability, implying a potential for sudden collapse when the mutualism's buffering capacity is exceeded, while recovery requires conditions to improve beyond the initial collapse point (hysteresis). Thus, our work emphasizes the importance of acknowledging facultative mutualisms for conservation and restoration of foundation species‐structured ecosystems, but highlights the potential risk of relying on mutualisms in the face of global change. We argue that significant caveats remain regarding the determination of these feedbacks, and suggest empirical manipulation across stress gradients as a way forward to identify related nonlinear responses.     

Spontaneous Return of Biodiversity in Restored Subtropical Thicket: Portulacaria afra as an Ecosystem Engineer

An accepted criterion for measuring the success of ecosystem restoration is the return of biodiversity relative to intact reference ecosystems. The emerging global carbon economy has made landscape‐scale restoration of severely degraded Portulacaria afra (spekboom)‐dominated subtropical thicket, by planting multiple rows of spekboom truncheons, a viable land‐use option. Although large amounts of carbon are sequestered when planting a monoculture of spekboom, it is unknown whether this is associated with the return of other thicket biodiversity components. We used available carbon stock data from degraded, restored, and intact stands at one site, and sampled carbon stocks at restored stands at another site in the same plant community. We also sampled plant community composition at both sites. The total carbon stock of the oldest (50 years) post‐restoration stand (250.8 ± 14 t C ha^?1) approximated that of intact stands (245 t C ha^?1) and we observed a general increase in carbon content with restoration age (71.4 ± 24 t C ha^?1 after 35 and 167.9 ± 20 t C ha^?1 after 50 years). A multiple correspondence analysis separated degraded stands from stands under restoration based on ground cover, floristic composition, and total carbon stock. Older post‐restoration and intact stands were clustered according to woody canopy recruit abundance. Our results suggest that spekboom is an ecosystem engineer that promotes spontaneous return of canopy species and other components of thicket biodiversity. The spekboom canopy creates a cooler micro‐climate and a dense litter layer, both likely to favor the recruitment of other canopy species.     

Crystal Structure and Conformation of 5‐Fluorouridine: Conformational Preferences for 5‐Fluorinated Pyranosides

Crystals of 5‐fluorouridine (5FUrd) have unit cell dimensions a = 7.716(1), b = 5.861(2), c = 13.041(1)Å, α = γ = 90°, β = 96.70° (1), space group P2₁, Z = 2, ρ_obs = 1.56 gm/c.c and ρ_calc = 1574 gm/c.c The crystal structure was determined with diffractometric data and refined to a final reliability index of 0.042 for the observed 2205 reflections (I ≥ 3σ). The nucleoside has the anti conformation [χ = 53.1(4)°] with the furanose ring in the favorite C2′–endo conformation. The conformation across the sugar exocyclic bond is g⁺, with values of 49.1(4) and ? 69.3(4)° for Φ_θc and Φ_∞ respectively. The pseudorotational amplitude τ_m is 34.5 (2) with a phase angle of 171.6(4)°. The crystal structure is stabilized by a network of N–H…O and O–H…O involving the N3 of the uracil base and the sugar O3′ and O2′ as donors and the O2 and O4 of the uracil base and O3′ oxygen as acceptors respectively. Fluorine is neither involved in the hydrogen bonding nor in the stacking interactions. Our studies of several 5‐fluorinated nucleosides show the following preferred conformational features: 1) the most favored anti conformation for the nucleoside [χ varies from ? 20 to + 60°] 2) an inverse correlation between the glycosyl bond distance and the χ angle 3) a wide variation of conformations of the sugar ranging froni C2′–endo through C3′–endo to C4′–exo 4) the preferred g⁺ across the exocyclic C4′–C5′ bond and 5) no role for the fluorine atom in the hydrogen bonding or base stacking interactions.     

Persistent versus transient tree encroachment of temperate peat bogs: effects of climate warming and drought events

Peatlands store approximately 30% of global soil carbon, most in moss‐dominated bogs. Future climatic changes, such as changes in precipitation patterns and warming, are expected to affect peat bog vegetation composition and thereby its long‐term carbon sequestration capacity. Theoretical work suggests that an episode of rapid environmental change is more likely to trigger transitions to alternative ecosystem states than a gradual, but equally large, change in conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore the impacts of drought events and increased temperature on vegetation composition of temperate peat bogs. We analyzed the consequences of six patterns of summer drought events combined with five temperature scenarios to test whether an open peat bog dominated by moss (Sphagnum) could shift to a tree‐dominated state. Unexpectedly, neither a gradual decrease in the amount of summer precipitation nor the occurrence of a number of extremely dry summers in a row could shift the moss‐dominated peat bog permanently into a tree‐dominated peat bog. The increase in tree biomass during drought events was unable to trigger positive feedbacks that keep the ecosystem in a tree‐dominated state after a return to previous ‘normal’ rainfall conditions. In contrast, temperature increases from 1 °C onward already shifted peat bogs into tree‐dominated ecosystems. In our simulations, drought events facilitated tree establishment, but temperature determined how much tree biomass could develop. Our results suggest that under current climatic conditions, peat bog vegetation is rather resilient to drought events, but very sensitive to temperature increases, indicating that future warming is likely to trigger persistent vegetation shifts.     

Volumetric properties underlying ligand binding in a monomeric hemoglobin: A high-pressure NMR study

The 2/2 hemoglobin of the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002, GlbN, coordinates the heme iron with two histidines and exists either with a b heme or with a covalently attached heme. The binding of exogenous ligands displaces the distal histidine and induces a conformational rearrangement involving the reorganization of internal void volumes. The formation of passageways within the resulting conformation is thought to facilitate ligand exchange and play a functional role. Here we monitored the perturbation induced by pressure on the ferric bis-histidine and cyanide-bound states of GlbN using ¹H–¹⁵N HSQC NMR spectroscopy. We inspected the outcome with a statistical analysis of 170 homologous 2/2 hemoglobin sequences. We found that the compression landscape of GlbN, as represented by the variation of an average chemical shift parameter, was highly sensitive to ligand swapping and heme covalent attachment. Stabilization of rare conformers was observed at high pressures and consistent with cavity redistribution upon ligand binding. In all states, the EF loop was found to be exceptionally labile to pressure, suggesting a functional role as a semi-flexible hinge between the adjacent helices. Finally, coevolved clusters presented a common pattern of compensating pressure responses. The high-pressure dissection combined with protein sequence analysis established locations with volumetric signatures relevant to residual communication of 2/2 hemoglobins. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Oxygen Binding and Sensing Proteins.     

Structural alteration of Escherichia coli Hsp31 by thermal unfolding increases chaperone activity

Escherichia coli Hsp31, encoded by hchA, is a heat-inducible molecular chaperone. We found that Hsp31 undergoes a conformational change via temperature-induced unfolding, generating a high molecular weight (HMW) form with enhanced chaperone activity. Although it has previously been reported that some subunits of the Hsp31 crystal structure show structural heterogeneity with increased hydrophobic surfaces, Hsp31 basically forms a dimer. We found that a C-terminal deletion (CΔ19) of Hsp31 exhibited structurally and functionally similar characteristics to that of the HMW form. Both the CΔ19 and HMW forms achieved a structure with considerably more β-sheets and less α-helices than the native dimeric form, exposing a portion of its hydrophobic surfaces. The structural alterations were determined from its spectral changes in circular dichroism, intrinsic fluorescence of tryptophan residues, and fluorescence of bis-ANS binding to a hydrophobic surface. Interestingly, during thermal transition, the dimeric Hsp31 undergoes a conformational change to the HMW species via the CΔ19 structure, as monitored with near-UV CD spectrum, implying that the CΔ19 resembles an intermediate state between the dimer and the HMW form. From these results, we propose that Hsp31 transforms itself into a fully functional chaperone by altering its tertiary and quaternary structures.