森林经营决策支持系统的设计与实现及在采伐中的应用

我国传统的森林经营方式比较落后,数字化水平不高,决策过程比较盲目.在地理信息系统平台中集成森林动态模型,建立森林经营决策支持系统,可以充分发挥地理信息系统的可视化、空间分析以及模型模拟预测功能,加强处理森林在较大时空尺度上的动态变化的能力.本文设计并实现了森林生长率模型、景观采伐模型和矩阵模型,开发了森林经营决策支持系统,回答森林采伐经营中“采多少,采哪里,怎么采”的三个主要问题,在长白山区的露水河林业局和三岔子林业局进行应用,为提高我国森林可持续经营管理的数字化水平提供了技术支持.     

The relationship between the Met allele of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism and impairments in decision making under ambiguity in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) gene has an important link to neurotransmitter systems, including serotonin, and seems to play a major role in emotional decision making. Impairment of decision making is an important feature of psychiatric disorders such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). We explore the link between decision making and the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism, which results in a reduction of BDNF activity, in a sample of Caucasian OCD patients. We used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to measure decision making in 122 OCD patients. All patients were assessed using the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory, the Beck Anxiety Inventory and the Raven Progressive Matrices. Patients also performed the Continuous Performance Task (CPT-II) and the Trail Making Test (TMT). We grouped Met-allele carriers because these act in a dominant way. Met-allele carries exhibited low performance on both halves of the IGT (first half -F = -2.51, df = 120, P = 0.01; second half -F = -2.32, df = 120, P = 0.02). However, logistic regression analyses showed that the influence of the Met allele seemed to be restricted to the first half of the IGT [first half -β = 0.55, df = 1, P < 0.01, odds ratio (OR) = 5.62; second half -β = 0.32, df = 1, P = 0.15, OR = 2.30]. No differences were observed in tests used to evaluate executive functions associated with the dorsolateral prefrontal cortices (TMT and CPT-II, df = 120, P > 0.05 for both). Met-allele impairment may only be related to decisions made under ambiguous conditions. The null results involving TMT and CPT-II are possibly related to the dysfunction of the orbitofrontal cortices that is associated with OCD.     

Optimal foraging for multiple nutrients in an unpredictable environment

Foraging theory has typically been concerned with the acquisition of a single resource even though organisms from mammals to protozoa are capable of balancing their requirements for multiple resources. Existing theory concerning multiple nutrients from multiple foods does not predict the sequence of food selection. We constructed an optimisation model of the simplest case of two foods containing differing amounts of two nutrients. We begin with the well-supported assumption that reproductive value declines with the distance from target nutrient intake. We show that nutrient space divides into two distinct areas where the animal should exclusively consume one food or the other. The organism thus initially concentrates on one food type until the border between the areas is reached and then moves as closely as possible along the border to approach the target. This strategy is commonly observed in a range of organisms, suggesting that the assumed fitness function is common.     

What Users Want and May Need

An increasing number of software tools support designers and other decision makers in making design, production, and purchasing decisions. Some of these tools provide quantitative information on environmental impacts such as climate change, human toxicity, or resource use during the life cycle of these products. Very little is known, however, about how these tools are actually used, what kind of modeling and presentation approaches users really want, or whether the information provided is likely to be used the way the developers intended. A survey of users of one such software tool revealed that although users want more transparency, about half also want an easy-to-use tool and would accept built-in assumptions; that most users prefer modeling of environmental impacts beyond the stressor level, and the largest group of respondents wants results simultaneously on the stressor, impact potential, and damage level; and that although many users look for aggregated information on impacts and costs, a majority do not trust that such an aggregation is valid or believe that there are tradeoffs among impacts. Further, our results show that the temporal and spatial scales of single impact categories explain only about 6% of the variation in the weights between impact categories set by respondents if the weights are set first. If the weights are set after respondents specify temporal and spatial scales, however, these scales explain about 24% of the variation. These results not only help method and tool developers to reconsider some previous assumptions, but also suggest a number of research questions that may need to be addressed in a more focused investigation.     

VIEWS OF THE PROCESS AND CONTENT OF ETHICAL REVIEWS OF HIV VACCINE TRIALS AMONG MEMBERS OF US INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS AND SOUTH AFRICAN RESEARCH ETHICS COMMITTEES

Given the ethical controversies concerning HIV vaccine trials (HVTs), we aimed to understand through an exploratory study how members of institutional review boards (IRBs) in the United States (US) and research ethics committees (RECs) in South Africa (SA) view issues concerning the process and content of reviews of these studies. We mailed packets of 20 questionnaires to 12 US IRB chairs and administrators and seven REC chairs to distribute to their members. We received 113 questionnaires (76 from the US and 37 from SA). In both countries, members tended to be white males with advanced academic degrees. Compared to the US, SA members called for ‘major changes’ in HVT protocols more frequently (p = 0.004), and were less likely to think that HVT participants understood risks and benefits (p = 0.033) or informed consent forms (p = 0.000). In both countries, members were divided on several critical issues (e.g. the minimum standard for treatment for HVT participants who became infected during the HVT), but agreed that they needed more training. Of the SA respondents, 40% reported that they were ‘self‐taught’ in ethics. This study, the first we know of to offer quantitative data comparing US vs. non‐US IRBs/RECs, thus suggests key similarities and differences (e.g. compared to SA respondents, US respondents appeared to overestimate participants' understanding of informed consent), along with needs for education. These initial exploratory data in this area have important implications for IRBs, RECs, policy‐makers and scholars concerning future practice, training, policy, and investigations in research ethics, and prevention and treatment of HIV and other diseases in the developing world and elsewhere.     

Optimal Bayesian Design for Patient Selection in a Clinical Study

Summary .  Bayesian experimental design for a clinical trial involves specifying a utility function that models the purpose of the trial, in this case the selection of patients for a diagnostic test. The best sample of patients is selected by maximizing expected utility. This optimization task poses difficulties due to a high-dimensional discrete design space and, also, to an expected utility formula of high complexity. A simulation-based optimal design method is feasible in this case. In addition, two deterministic algorithms that perform a systematic search over the design space are developed to address the computational issues.     

Institutionalization of Life-Cycle Thinking in the Everyday Discourse of Market Actors

The widespread popularity of life-cycle assessment (LCA) is difficult to understand from the point of view of instrumental decision making by economic agents. Ehrenfeld has argued, in a 1997 issue of this journal, that it is the world-shaping potential of LCA that is more important than its use as a decision-making tool. The present study attempts to explore the institutionalization of this "LCA world view" among ordinary market actors. This is important because environmental policy relies increasingly on market-based initiatives. Cognitive and normative assumptions in authoritative LCA documents are examined as empirical data and compared with data from focus group interviews concerning products and the environment with "ordinary" manufacturers, retailers, and consumers in Finland. These assumptions are (1) the "cradle-to-grave" approach, (2) the view that all products have an environmental impact and can be improved, (3) the relativity of environmental merit, and (4) the way responsibility for environmental burdens is attributed. Relevant affinities, but also differences, are identified. It is argued that life-cycle thinking is not primarily instrumental, but rather is gaining a degree of intrinsic value. The study attempts to establish a broader institutional context in which the popularity of LCA can be understood. From the point of view of this broader context, some future challenges for the development of LCA and life-cycle thinking are suggested.     

Characterization of a xylanase from the newly isolated thermophilic Thermomyces lanuginosus CAU44 and its application in bread making

AIMS: A xylanase from the newly isolated thermophilic fungus, Thermomyces lanuginosus CAU44, was characterized and evaluated for its suitability in bread making. METHODS AND RESULTS: Xylanase was purified 3.5-fold to homogeneity with a recovery yield of 32.8%. It appeared as a single protein band on SDS-PAGE gel with a molecular mass of c. 25.6 kDa. The purified xylanase had an optimum pH of 6.2, and it was stable over pH 5.6-10.3. The optimal temperature of xylanase was 75 degrees C and it was stable up to 65 degrees C at pH 6.2. Study was further carried out to investigate the effect of the purified xylanase on the properties of wheat bread and its staling during storage. CONCLUSIONS: The purified xylanase from T. lanuginosus CAU44 was stable up to 65 degrees C and had a broad pH range. The presence of thermostable xylanase during bread making led to an improvement of the specific bread volume and better crumb texture. Besides, addition of xylanase provided an anti-staling effect. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The xylanase from the newly isolated Thermomyces lanuginosus CAU44 shows great promise as a processing aid in the bread-making industry.     

胸部双源性疾病外科治疗的临床决策

胸部双源性疾病随人口的老龄化而逐年增加,而老年人的心肺及各种脏器功能随年龄的增长逐渐衰退,并发症多,手术风险大,对此类病人的外科治疗如何做出正确的临床医疗决策呢？我们以循证医学理论为基础,努力做到临床医疗决策的科学性,治疗方案的合理性,大胆尝试,逐步从分期手术向一期手术过渡,既达到了解决病人疾苦,救治病人的目的,又解决了医疗需求的增加和卫生资源短缺的矛盾,取得了满意的效果,降低了医疗成本,节约了医疗资源,产生了明显的社会和经济效益。     

Independence and interdependence in the nest-site choice by honeybee swarms: Agent-based models, analytical approaches and pattern formation

In a recent paper List, Elsholtz and Seeley (List et al., 2009) have devised an agent-based model of the nest-choice dynamics in swarms of honeybees, and have concluded that both interdependence and independence are needed for the bees to reach a consensus on the best nest site. We here present a simplified version of the model which can be treated analytically with the tools of statistical physics and which largely has the same features as the original dynamics. Based on our analytical approaches it is possible to characterize the co-ordination outcome exactly on the deterministic level, and to a good approximation if stochastic effects are taken into account, reducing the need for computer simulations on the agent-based level. In the second part of the paper we present a spatial extension, and show that transient non-trivial patterns emerge, before consensus is reached. Approaches in terms of Langevin equations for continuous field variables are discussed.