Values,Errors, and Precautions

In the environmental health literature, errors in interpreting studies or data are not infrequent. Many are of the Type II variety. Common solecisms of this type are: treating the criterion of p < 0.05 as a sacrament; demanding complete confounder control; arguing for the existence of phantom confounders; arguing that the effect size is trivial; building nonveridical models; arguing for no effect from inadequate sample size; demanding causal proof; arguing that causality is reversed; conducting a ballot of published studies. These are examined in this paper.     

A comparison of vector population indices for forecasting barley yellow dwarf virus in autumn sown cereal crops

Two approaches based on the concept of a vector population index are considered as possible deterministic elements for an empirical forecast of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) in autumn sown cereals. The first, an aerial vector index, is a further elaboration of the infectivity index proposed by Plumb, Lennon & Gutteridge (1981), which assumes that virus damage is a function of the number of infective migrant alatae of the two main aphid vectors, Rhopalosiphum padi L. and Sitobion avenae F., integrated over time from crop planting or emergence. The new formulation, however, excludes holocyclic alate morphs (i.e. males and gynoparae) of the former species, which, although generally abundant in autumn, are nevertheless perceived as relatively unimportant virus vectors since they colonise only the alternative woody host, Prunus padus (the bird-cherry tree). The second approach, a crop vector index, is a more fundamental departure which argues that field populations of viruliferous aphids, both alatae and apterae, which have already colonised cereals, may be a better criterion of potential virus spread than the density of aerial migrant vectors. This index retains a similar integral form, but evaluates crop exposure to BYDV as accumulated infectious aphid-days. A method is described whereby this function can be derived from irregular or infrequent aphid samples in the crop. Both methods, unlike Plumb's (1976) original concept, produced indices which were significantly related to subsequent virus infection and yield loss in winter barley at Long Ashton (S.W. England, UK), 1978–1986. The best models were obtained with the crop vector index, fitted to observed virus infection by generalised linear regression using a complementary log-log link function, or to observed yield loss by simple linear regression using a log transformation of yield (r = 0.84 in each case; compared with r-values > 0.65 for the aerial vector index, and > 0.35 for Plumb's (1976) index). However, the residual errors and hence confidence limits of these fitted regressions were too large for predicting damage that was significantly less than a reasonable economic damage threshold for BYDV control. Analyses of the separate components of each index showed a good general relationship between aphid infectivity and the severity of crop infection, confirming the epidemiological importance of this factor. The functional expressions of aphid density, however, were not significant. This evident weakness in the models, and alternative approaches to BYDV forecasting are discussed.     

Assessment of Optimal Selected Prognostic Factors

The identification and assessment of prognostic factors is one of the major tasks in clinical research. The assessment of one single prognostic factor can be done by recently established methods for using optimal cutpoints. Here, we suggest a method to consider an optimal selected prognostic factor from a set of prognostic factors of interest. This can be viewed as a variable selection method and is the underlying decision problem at each node of various tree building algorithms. We propose to use maximally selected statistics where the selection is defined over the set of prognostic factors and over all cutpoints in each prognostic factor. We demonstrate that it is feasible to compute the approximate null distribution. We illustrate the new variable selection test with data of the German Breast Cancer Study Group and of a small study on patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma. Using the null distribution for a p‐value adjusted regression trees algorithm, we adjust for the number of variables analysed at each node as well. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Imprecise exposure assessment and the sample size requirements of case-control studies of residential magnetic field exposure and cancer in adults

A computer program simulating case-control studies is described. It is used to estimate the minimum sample size required and to assess how this is affected by imprecise exposure assessment. In particular, the consequences of neglecting measurements of nonresidential exposure in case-control studies of residentially exposed adults are investigated. According to this model, while the consequent loss of power is not as large as was predicted by algebraic methods, it would be unwise to neglect it when planning a study. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Biosynthesis of a ubiouitin-related peptide in rat brain and in human and mouse pituitary tumors

A biosynthetic labeled peptide structurally related to the thymic peptide ubiquitin was first identified fortuitously in bovine pars intermedia cells in regard to its partial NH₂ terminal amino acid sequence (Met 1, Leu 8, 15 and Lys 6, 11, 27, 29, 33) after a protein segment data bank search. A peptide with the same behavior on carboxymethylcellulose chromatography and polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis has been purified after labeling experiments in two areas of rat brain, hypothalamus and striatum, and in a mouse and a human ACTH-secreting pituitary tumors. It represents about 1 to 10% of the total labeled proteins in the various experiments. Its identity with the above mentioned bovine pituitary peptide was confirmed by microsequence analysis with respect to Met 1, Lys 6, 11 in hypothalmus, Met 1 in striatum, and Lys 6, 11, 27, 29, 33 in the two pituitary tumors. The availability of standard purified ubiquitin allowed us to show that labeled and cold peptides have the same electrophoretic mobility and elution volume on Sephadex G-50 chromatography this further confirms their identity. Possible interests of such a biosynthetic characterization of a ubiquitin-related peptide are discussed, particularly in view of the structural relationship of ubiquitin to the non histone component of nuclear protein A-24, and as a test of tissue viability and biosynthetic efficiency in our in vitro biosynthetic systems.     

Genetic Polymorphisms of Pneumocystis Jirovecii in HIV-Positive and HIV-Negative Patients in Northern China

Pneumocystis jirovecii is an opportunistic fungus that can cause severe and potentially fatal Pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP) in immunodeficient patients. In this study, we investigated the genetic polymorphisms of P. jirovecii at eight different loci, including six nuclear genes (ITS, 26S rRNA, sod, dhps, dhfr and β-Tub) and two mitochondrial genes (mtLSU-rRNA and cyb) in three PCP cases, including two patients with HIV infection and one without HIV infection in Shanxi Province, P.R. China. The gene targets were amplified by PCR followed by sequencing of plasmid clones. The HIV-negative patient showed a coinfection with two genotypes of P. jirovecii at six of the eight loci sequenced. Of the two HIV-positive patients, one showed a coinfection with two genotypes of P. jirovecii at the same two of the six loci as in the HIV-negative patient, while the other showed a single infection at all eight loci sequenced. None of the three drug target genes (dhfr, dhps and cyb) showed mutations known to be potentially associated with drug resistance. This is the first report of genetic polymorphisms of P. jirovecii in PCP patients in Shanxi Province, China. Our findings expand our understanding of the genetic diversity of P. jirovecii in China. Open in a separate window     

新型疫苗佐剂的研究进展

与传统的灭活或活体疫苗相比,由基因工程重组抗原或化学合成多肽组成的现代疫苗往往存在免疫原性弱等问题,需要新型的免疫佐剂来增强其作用。尽管传统的铝盐佐剂是目前唯一全球公认的人用佐剂,但存在激发细胞免疫应答能力差等不足,因此,需要研发更为安全有效的人用新型佐剂,尤其是安全无毒、能够刺激较强细胞免疫应答的佐剂,以及适合粘膜疫苗、DNA疫苗和癌症疫苗的免疫佐剂。分析阐述了新型佐剂研究状况和佐剂发展方向,并进一步对新型佐剂的临床前和临床试验研究以及已批准上市的新型疫苗佐剂进行了综述。