Sample size re‐estimation in clinical trials

Adaptive clinical trials are becoming very popular because of their flexibility in allowing mid‐stream changes of sample size, endpoints, populations, etc. At the same time, they have been regarded with mistrust because they can produce bizarre results in very extreme settings. Understanding the advantages and disadvantages of these rapidly developing methods is a must. This paper reviews flexible methods for sample size re‐estimation when the outcome is continuous.     

Stress physiologique et état de santé des plus anciens Hommes anatomiquement modernes du sud-est de l’Europe (données dentaires,couche 6-1, Buran-Kaya III,Crimée)

Buran-Kaya III site, in Crimea, provides an exceptional stratigraphic sequence, extending from Middle Paleolithic to Neolithic. Among the archaeological layers allocated to the Gravettian (sensu lato), more than 170 anthropological remains have been discovered in the layer 6-1. They represent the oldest Upper Paleolithic modern humans from Eastern Europe in a well-documented archaeological context. The aim of this article, based on dental remains and enamel dental hypoplasias in particular, is to evaluate the health of the modern humans, which lived more than 32,000 years BP ago in Crimea. This study puts into the light the low frequency of hypoplasias (occurring in the two youngest individuals). This article complete the rare studies concerning the presence of this physiological stress during the Early Upper Paleolithic and confirm the scarcity of enamel dental hypoplasias and dental pathologies, such as caries, at this period.     

Population genetic connectivity of an endemic New Zealand passerine after large‐scale local extirpations: a model of re‐colonization potential

Little is known about how a 70% loss of native forests has affected the genetic connectivity of remnant bird populations in New Zealand. We use the common and widely distributed New Zealand Bellbird Anthornis melanura as an indicator species of population connectivity for well‐flighted birds. Using eight microsatellite loci, we identified five main genetic populations in the North Island, South Island, sub‐Antarctic Auckland Islands and two small remnant island populations adjacent to a large region of avian extirpations in northern North Island. Only one remnant island population, on a 30‐year‐old conservation reserve at Tiritiri Matangi, displayed a clear signature of recent genetic bottleneck. The 7% migration rate at Tiritiri Matangi indicates that bottlenecks can be maintained despite habitat rehabilitation, possibly through behavioural barriers to gene flow. Adjacent to the same extirpation zone, Bellbirds on the Poor Knights Islands were found to have low genetic diversity and low re‐colonization potential. Two gaps concordant with deforestation patterns separated the Kapiti Coast of southern North Island from populations to both the north and the south. In summary, we identified linked avian habitats, as well as isolated and inbred populations and suggest that Bellbirds are good re‐colonizers. We emphasize the importance of genetic studies that assess animal dispersal among newly rehabilitated habitat patches.     

Nouvelles données sur le genre Imerites Rouchadzé, 1933 (Ammonitida,Ancyloceratina) ; réponses et précisions apportées au travail de Bert,Delanoy et Canut, 2009

This work is mainly an answer to the work of Bert, Delanoy and Canut, on the genus Imerites Rouchadzé, and we add also some points to the knowledge of this genus. An answer is given for the implication of one of the authors (J.V.) of this present work, about the origin of the genus Imerites Rouchadzé, and some significant bibliographic references, not named in the 2009 work, are specified and placed in their context. The characteristics of the ornamental stage “Pseudoshasticrioceras” mainly defined by an oval and compressed section of the whorls and by regular ventrolateral clavi, well marked, which frame the venter in a typical way (Bert et al., p. 181), don’t allow to affirm the presence of this stage during the ontogeny of all species of the genus Imerites Rouchadzé, contrary to what Bert, Delanoy and Canut (p. 30, 31) wrote. The type-species of the genus Imerites Rouchadzé is made clear by the application of the rules of the I.C.Z.N. code. The article 23, with the paragraph 23.1 of the I.C.Z.N. code, imply the senior synonymy of Imerites cristatus (Orbigny) on Imerites giraudi (Kilian), even if the Kilian's species is still the type species of the genus Imerites Rouchadzé. The taxinomical validity of the species Imerites cristatus (Orbigny) is confirmed. Its morphological variability is clarified by the distinction of four referential morphotypes, Cristatus, Giraudi, Favrei and Raricostatum. Consequently, the assumption of a shape-dimensional dimorphism into the populations of the genus Imerites Rouchadzé is rejected, awaiting irrefutable proof. A new species, Imerites stephaniae sp. nov., is described. It was collected in the Gerhardtia sartousiana Zone, in the uppermost part of the Gerhardtia provincialis Subzone, and it is a probable ancestor of the cogeneric species of the Imerites giraudi Zone.     

New enantiornithine bird (Aves, Ornithothoraces) from the Late Cretaceous of NW Argentina

A new enantiornithine bird, Intiornis inexpectatus gen. et sp. nov, is described here. It is based on a partial hind limb found in beds of the Upper Cretaceous Las Curtiembres Formation (Campanian), North-West Argentina. The new taxon is referred to the family Avisauridae on the basis of its cranially convex third metatarsal. Several features suggest close relationships between Intiornis and the avisaurid Soroavisaurus, from the Lecho Formation (Maastrichtian; North-West Argentina). Intiornis was the size of a sparrow, thus representing the smallest Enantiornithes known from South America. The new species shows adaptations for a perching mode of life. Moreover, the hypothesis suggesting that the flying pterosaur reptiles decrease in taxonomic diversity due to competitive interaction with birds is discussed. The new species shows adaptations for a perching mode of life. Moreover, the hypothesis suggesting that the flying pterosaur reptiles decrease in taxonomic diversity due to competitive interaction with birds is discussed.     

Cladoceran community responses to biomanipulation and re‐oligotrophication in Lake Vesijärvi,Finland, as inferred from remains in annually laminated sediment

1. We studied the role of zooplankton in biomanipulation and the subsequent recovery phase in the Enonselkä basin of Lake Vesijärvi, using subfossil cladocerans in annually laminated sediment. Measures to restore the Enonselkä basin included reduction in external nutrient loading and mass removal of plankti‐ and benthivorous fish. Water clarity increased and the lake changed from a eutrophic to a mesotrophic state. However, some signs of increased turbidity were observed after 5–10 years of successful recovery. 2. Annual laminae in a freeze core sample were identified and sliced, based on the seasonal succession of diatoms. Cladoceran remains and rotifer eggs were counted, and Daphnia ephippia and Eubosmina and Bosmina ephippia and carapaces were measured. Annual changes in pelagic species composition were studied with principal component analysis. Individual species abundance, size measurements and various cladoceran‐based indices or ratios (commonly used to reconstruct changes in trophic state and fish predation) were tested for change between four distinct periods: I (1985–1988) dense fish stocks, poor water quality; II (1989–1992) fish removal; III (1993–1997) low fish density, improved water quality; IV (1998–2002) slightly increased fish density and poorer water quality. 3. After the removal of fish, the mean size of Daphnia ephippia and Eubosmina crassicornis ephippia and carapaces increased significantly. In contrast, the percentage of Daphnia did not increase. When based on ephippia, the ratio Daphnia/(Daphnia + E. crassicornis) increased, but the interpretation was obscured by the tolerance of fish predation by small Daphnia and by the fact that bosminids were the preferred food of roach. Moreover, ephippial production by E. crassicornis decreased in recent years. 4. The abundance of Diaphanosoma brachyurum and Limnosida frontosa increased significantly after the fish population was reduced, while that of Ceriodaphnia and rotifers decreased. 5. The expanding littoral vegetation along with improved water clarity was clearly reflected in the concentration of littoral species in the deep sediment core. The species diversity index for the entire subfossil community also increased. 6. The period of faltering recovery was characterised by greater interannual variability and an increased percentage of rotifers. Nevertheless, the mean sizes of Daphnia ephippia and E. crassicornis ephippia and carapaces indicated a low density of fish. The deteriorating water quality was apparently related to multiple stressors in the catchment after rehabilitation, such as intensified lakeshore building, as well as to exceptional weather conditions, challenging the management methods in use.     

L’Aurignacien archaïque de la grotte El Castillo (Espagne) : caractérisation technologique et typologique

In this paper, we present the techno-typological study of level 16 of El Castillo cave (Archaic Aurignacian). In this level, we can identify an important bladelet production from schémas opératoires of unipolar prismatic cores, carinated endscraper and carinated burins types. Besides, we find a specific production of Discoid conception. The retouched blanks, though scanty, are dominated by the Dufour bladelets. Level 16 is in relation with the Archaic Aurignacian at the Cantabrian Iberia, which is present in sites like Cueva Morín, Labeko Koba, Gatzarria, or Isturitz and it also is in relation with the Mediterranean Archaic Aurignacian. Finally, we analyse the different hypotheses about the Initial Upper Paleolithic origin in Europe. The mosaic hypothesis is acceptable for us.     

Internal pilots for observational studies

Study planning often involves selecting an appropriate sample size. Power calculations require specifying an effect size and estimating “nuisance” parameters, e.g. the overall incidence of the outcome. For observational studies, an additional source of randomness must be estimated: the rate of the exposure. A poor estimate of any of these parameters will produce an erroneous sample size. Internal pilot (IP) designs reduce the risk of this error ‐ leading to better resource utilization ‐ by using revised estimates of the nuisance parameters at an interim stage to adjust the final sample size. In the clinical trials setting, where allocation to treatment groups is pre‐determined, IP designs have been shown to achieve the targeted power without introducing substantial inflation of the type I error rate. It has not been demonstrated whether the same general conclusions hold in observational studies, where exposure‐group membership cannot be controlled by the investigator. We extend the IP to observational settings. We demonstrate through simulations that implementing an IP, in which prevalence of the exposure can be re‐estimated at an interim stage, helps ensure optimal power for observational research with little inflation of the type I error associated with the final data analysis.     

L’utilisation des reliefs pariétaux dans la réalisation des signes au Paléolithique supérieur

For a long time, the images of the Upper Paleolithic were represented in a way that emphasized their aesthetic qualities and ignored the specific characteristics of their natural supports. It is more damageable as the architecture of the decorated caves plays a real part, at different levels, in the elaboration of the parietal devices. As omnipresent elements of these devices, the signs play a determining part in this architecture. Analysing the links between the signs and their direct supports brings to light the various ways in which parietal devices can be used and also the integration and research for the volumes and frame. A study led inside the caves on a sample of 692 signs, distributed in the franco-cantabric paleolithic space, makes apparent the variety of the graphic choices left to the artists standing in front of the wall.     

Présence de l’éocrinoïde Ascocystites Barrande (Echinodermata,Blastozoa) dans l’Ordovicien supérieur (Caradoc) de l’Anti-Atlas (Maroc) : premières données

Family Ascocystitidae, defined and established by Georges Ubaghs in 1967, includes a single genus, Ascocystites. This genus was described and figured for the first time by Barrande in 1887, from Bohemian specimens. Thereafter, specimens brought close to Ascocystites or assigned to this genus were described starting from samples collected in Bohemia in the Armorican Massif or in Portugal. The new specimens were collected in Morocco in the Eastern Anti-Atlas, within the formation of Izzeguirene of Caradoc age. The studied material includes several sandy slabes often containing many well-preserved and almost complete individuals. These levels gather individuals of various sizes, corresponding to various stages of development. The morphological study in progress should allow a specific attribution by comparison with the Bohemian and Armorican forms actually known. The Moroccan material has, in addition, the advantage of corresponding to associations of several Echinodermata groups, rich in individuals, allowing a taphonomic and possibly paleoenvironmental study. Biostratigraphically, Ascocystitidae are actually known between Middle (Armorican Massif and Portugal) and Upper Ordovician (Bohemia and now Morocco). The discovery of Ascocystitidae in the Moroccan Anti-Atlas extends their distribution, within gondwanian domain, during Middle and Upper Ordovician.