Enhancing estimation methods for integrating probability and nonprobability survey samples with machine-learning techniques. An application to a Survey on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain

Web surveys have replaced Face-to-Face and computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) as the main mode of data collection in most countries. This trend was reinforced as a consequence of COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions. However, this mode still faces significant limitations in obtaining probability-based samples of the general population. For this reason, most web surveys rely on nonprobability survey designs. Whereas probability-based designs continue to be the gold standard in survey sampling, nonprobability web surveys may still prove useful in some situations. For instance, when small subpopulations are the group under study and probability sampling is unlikely to meet sample size requirements, complementing a small probability sample with a larger nonprobability one may improve the efficiency of the estimates. Nonprobability samples may also be designed as a mean for compensating for known biases in probability-based web survey samples by purposely targeting respondent profiles that tend to be underrepresented in these surveys. This is the case in the Survey on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain (ESPACOV) that motivates this paper. In this paper, we propose a methodology for combining probability and nonprobability web-based survey samples with the help of machine-learning techniques. We then assess the efficiency of the resulting estimates by comparing them with other strategies that have been used before. Our simulation study and the application of the proposed estimation method to the second wave of the ESPACOV Survey allow us to conclude that this is the best option for reducing the biases observed in our data.     

STABILITY IN THE PROPORTION OF HARBOR SEALS HAULED OUT UNDER LOCALLY IDEAL CONDITIONS

We monitored the haul-out behavior of 68 radio-tagged harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina ) during the molt season at two Alaskan haul-out sites (Grand Island, August-September 1994; Nanvak Bay, August-September 2000). For each site, we created a statistical model of the proportion of seals hauled out as a function of date, time of day, tide, and weather covariates. Using these models, we identified the conditions that would result in the greatest proportion of seals hauled out. Although those "ideal conditions" differed between sites, the proportion of seals predicted to be hauled out under those conditions was very similar (81.3% for Grand Island and 85.7% for Nanvak Bay). The similar estimates for both sites suggest that haul-out proportions under locally ideal conditions may be constant between years and geographic regions, at least during the molt season.     

A survey of black dot and other fungal tuber blemishing diseases in British potato crops at harvest

Black dot and other fungal blemishing diseases were assessed on tubers from crops in eastern England in 1987 and 1988, and in 1989 and 1990 from crops throughout Great Britain. Black dot was found on tubers in crops from all areas of the country, and was most common in those from eastern and southern England. The disease was scarce on most Scottish crops, but occasionally some were severely affected. In 1988 there was no consistent relationship between the amounts of disease on the seed and subsequent ware crop. On average, the disease was more prevalent in irrigated crops and where the interval between successive potato crops was short. In 1990 treating seed tubers with fungicide had no effect on subsequent levels of disease. Few crops were unaffected by silver scurf, and it was most common in crops from southern and eastern England. In the national survey common scab was the most prevalent disease, black scurf was less common and skin spot and powdery scab uncommon except in some Scottish crops.     

Fungal spores are an important component of library air

The airborne fungal spore types were studied in different libraries in Delhi, using an Andersen sampler and a Burkard personal sampler, for culturable and non-culturable fungi respectively. The concentration inside the libraries, before and after the agitation of books, were compared with outside air. The major contributors to the library air areCladosporium, aspergilli/penicillia, smuts andAlternaria, varying from 50 to 14%. Some fungi (Cladosporium, Alternaria, smut,Penicillium chrysogenum andnigricans) showed seasonal occurrence, corresponding to their occurrence in the extramural environment. Aspergilli/penicillia,Drechslera, Curvularia andAspergillus flavus had a significantly higher concentration (P<0.01) inside the library, and recorded a significant increase in concentration after agitation of books. Air-conditioned libraries have low fungal spore concentrations, as compared to naturally ventilated libraries.     

Keep all the pieces: Systematics 2000 and world conservation

Conserving biological diversity requires a major effort in conducting survey and inventories, establishing priorities, selecting protected areas, managing resources and monitoring the effects of management. Systematics has an important contribution to make to each of these five major activities. Further, the new Convention on Biological Diversity requires systematics information to support action under virtually all of its substantive conservation and sustainable use articles. It seems apparent that large reference collections contribute directly to development, and development assistance agencies should recognize that investing in maintaining these collections is a legitimate form of development assistance.     

Short-term variations in catches of the pea moth,Cydia nigricana, in interacting pheromone traps

Short-term variations in the relative catch in each of two or three interacting pheromone traps for the pea moth,Cydia nigricana (F.), were investigated for traps aligned along the wind. The proportional catch in each trap varied widely, although the mean values accorded with previous estimates. Over consecutive short intervals during a single trapping period the proportion caught in the centre trap of a three-trap line was constant. The proportion caught in the upwind trap of two-and three-trap lines showed trends in time. These trends differed between trapping periods, but two lines of traps operated simultaneously gave similar results to each other. It is suggested that these results, which are predicted by a model based on various components of moth orientation behaviour, are caused by changes in systematic behavioural processes, not random effects. Possible mechanisms are discussed.

---

Variations à court terme des captures deCydia nigricana dans des pièges à phéromones en interaction

Résumé Des données antérieures concernant les interactions entre des pièges à phéromone alignés le long du vent ont été utilisées pour déduire les caractéristiques du comportement d'orientation deC. nigricana. Ces données ont été introduites dans un modèle de simulation quantitative qui prédisait que quand les captures totales sur une ligne ont été regroupées sur une période globale de piégage, la proportion capturée dans chaque piège devrait aussi avoir des valeurs moyennes semblables, mais varie plus largement que précédemment indiqué. Les simulations concernant des intervalles consécutifs beaucoup plus courts pendant la même période de piégage ont suggéré une forme spécifique de cette variation.Cette note signale des variations à court terme dans la proportion capturée au piège qui confirment ces prédictions. Nous montrons que sur des intervalles consécutifs brefs pendant une simple période de piégage, la proportion capturée dans le piège central d'une ligne de 3 pièges est contstante, bien que sa valeur change suivant les périodes de piégage. La proportion capturée dans le piège face au vent de 2 ou 3 lignes de pièges suit cette tendance dans le temps, ce qui est généralement bien représenté avec des courbes simples. Ces tendances changent suivant les périodes de piégage, mais des lignes de pièges fonctionnant simultanément fournissaient des résultats similaires. On suggère que ces résultats sont dus à des changements dans des processus comportementaux systématiques et non à des effects aléatoires. Les mécanismes possibles sont discutés.

     

Specific rates of substrate oxidation and product formation in autotrophically growingChromatium vinosum cultures

Eighty-six species of fungi belonging to sixty-four genera were examined for their ability to metabolize naphthalene. Analysis by thin-layer and high pressure liquid chromatography revealed that naphthalene metabolism occurred in forty-seven species belonging to thirty-four genera from the major fungal taxa. All organisms tested from the order Mucorales oxidized naphthalene with species of Cunninghamella, Syncephalastrum and Mucor showing the greatest activity. Significant metabolism was also observed with Neurospora crassa, Claviceps paspali and four species of Psilocybe. The predominant metabolite formed by most organisms was 1-naphthol. Other products identified were, 4-hydroxy-1-tetralone, trans-1,2-dihydroxy-1,2-dihydronaphthalene, 2-naphthol, 1,2-and 1,4-naphthoquinone.     

A phytosociological survey of the Irish Molinio-Arrhenatheretea using computer techniques

Summary The Irish approach to the computer processing of grassland relevés is introduced. A suite of programs in Fortran IV has been developed for the purpose. The preparation and analysis of the relevés using these programs is explained. The cost and ecological effectiveness is discussed. It is concluded that the approach is not radically different to the familiar Braun-Blanquet technique of tabular comparison of relevés.Contribution from the Working Group for Data-Processing in Phytosociology, International Society for Vegetation Science.     

Role of three basic light reactions in photomovement of desmids

Photoaccumulations in light trap experiments have been studied in the desmids, Cosmarium, Micrasterias and Euastrum. Dependence of accumulation density on exposure time follows saturation curves, while dose response curves show optima. Time-lapse microcinematography and population methods have revealed that all three basic light-induced motor responses known in microorganisms participate in producing photoaccumulations in desmids. During the initial phase the cells are phototactically attracted towards the trap by scattered light. In low light intensity traps photokinetic reactions may play only a minor role, since photokinesis could be evoked only by light intensities100 lx in Cosmarium cucumis. True photophobic reactions have been demonstrated for the first time in desmids. There are two types of phobic responses in desmids: either the cell reverses its movement or it swings sidewise into the new direction. Behaviour of partially shadowed cells suggests that perception of light direction is brough about by simultaneous intensity measurement at two or more sites within the cell.