Bayesian Bootstrap Clones for Censored Markov Chains

In this article, we consider r observations from a non‐homogeneous censored Markov chain, with transition probability matrix P. For the product estimator of P proposed by Aalen and Johansen (1978) and Phelan (1988), we investigate the behavior of Bayesian bootstrap clones to approximate the sampling distribution of , and then construct approximate confidence interval. It is shown that the approximation based on the random‐weighted distribution is first‐order consistent. The performance of the Bayesian bootstrap clones (BBC) is also discussed by small sample simulation. Finally, we illustrate the BBC procedure in the application to the WHO malaria survey data (cf. Singer and Cohen 1970).     

Segregation and conditional probability association of molecular markers with traits in autotetraploid alfalfa

The complications introduced by the autotetraploid, outcrossing nature of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) as related to detecting associations of marker loci and traits of interest are discussed, and a new method of detecting marker-trait associations is suggested. This method utilizes plant populations that are likely to have been produced through the plant breeding process: populations selected for one trait, and the base, unselected population. Marker allele frequency shifts between the populations are indicative of genomic regions involved in trait expression, and may indicate alleles that have reached the triplex or homozygous state and do not segregate in S₁ or F₁ populations. However, because many, perhaps hundreds, of sequential frequency comparisons are needed to detect fragments in significantly different proportions in the two populations, the type I error rate is very high. A resampling-based analysis method is proposed to address the concern of the type I error rate, and identify marker alleles associated with this trait of interest. The utility of marker-trait associations thus defined for identifying individual plants from heterogeneous populations was investigated through model-building and conditional probability studies. Factors investigated that influenced the utility of the marker associations and (in the base population) the frequencies of the trait and marker, and the frequencies of the markers in plants exhibiting the trait and in the plants not exhibiting the trait. The frequency of occurrence of a marker in undesirable plants profoundly influenced the efficiency with which the marker could be used to select desirable plants, however, under some circumstances, markers or combinations of markers can be highly efficient for selecting rare, desirable plants from a heterogeneous base population.     

Ecological models for estimating breakpoints and prediction intervals

1. The relationships between an environmental variable and an ecological response are usually estimated by models fitted through the conditional mean of the response given environmental stress. For example, nonparametric loess and parametric piecewise linear regression model (PLRM) are often used to represent simple to complex nonlinear relationships. In contrast, piecewise linear quantile regression models (PQRM) fitted across various quantiles of the response can reveal nonlinearities in its range of variation across the explanatory variable.
2. We assess the number and positions of candidate breakpoints using loess and compare the relative efficiencies of PLRM and PQRM to quantitatively determine the breakpoints'' location and precision. We propose a nonparametric method to generate bootstrap confidence intervals for breakpoints using PQRM and prediction bands for loess and PQRM. We illustrated the applications using data from two aquatic studies suspected to exhibit multiple environmental breakpoints: relating a fish multimetric index of community health (MMI) to agricultural activity in wetlands'' adjacent drainage basins; and relating cyanobacterial biomass to total phosphorus concentration in Canadian lakes.
3. Two statistically significant breakpoints were detected in each dataset, demarcating boundaries of three linear segments, each with markedly different slopes. PQRM generated less biased, more accurate, and narrower confidence intervals for the breakpoints and narrower prediction bands than PLRM, especially for small samples and large error variability. In both applications, the relationship between the response and environmental variables was weak/nonsignificant below the lower threshold, strong through the midrange of the environmental gradient, and weak/nonsignificant beyond the upper threshold.
4. We describe several advantages of PQRM over PLRM in characterizing environmental relationships where the scatter of points represents natural environmental variation rather than measurement error. The proposed methodology will be useful for detecting multiple breakpoints in ecological applications where the limits of variation are as important as the conditional mean of a function.

     

A simple predictive density based on the p*-formula

The predictive density proposed by Harris (1989) is based onintegrating the density for a new observation with respect tothe estimated sampling distribution of the maximum likelihoodestimator of the unknown parameter. This has good properties,but is rather complicated to compute even for simple models.An approximation to the Harris proposal is considered whichconsists of approximating the sampling distribution of the maximumlikelihood estimator of the unknown parameter by Barndorff-Nielsen's(1983) p*-formula, and then using a Laplace approximation withO(n^–1) correction terms for integrating out the parameter.The result can generally be expressed in terms of standard likelihoodderivatives, and takes a quite simple form for exponential familiesand for location models.     

Once a Batesian mimic, not always a Batesian mimic: mimic reverts back to ancestral phenotype when the model is absent

Batesian mimics gain protection from predation through the evolution of physical similarities to a model species that possesses anti-predator defences. This protection should not be effective in the absence of the model since the predator does not identify the mimic as potentially dangerous and both the model and the mimic are highly conspicuous. Thus, Batesian mimics should probably encounter strong predation pressure outside the geographical range of the model species. There are several documented examples of Batesian mimics occurring in locations without their models, but the evolutionary responses remain largely unidentified. A mimetic species has four alternative evolutionary responses to the loss of model presence. If predation is weak, it could maintain its mimetic signal. If predation is intense, it is widely presumed the mimic will go extinct. However, the mimic could also evolve a new colour pattern to mimic another model species or it could revert back to its ancestral, less conspicuous phenotype. We used molecular phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct and test the evolution of mimicry in the North American admiral butterflies (Limenitis: Nymphalidae). We confirmed that the more cryptic white-banded form is the ancestral phenotype of North American admiral butterflies. However, one species, Limenitis arthemis, evolved the black pipevine swallowtail mimetic form but later reverted to the white-banded more cryptic ancestral form. This character reversion is strongly correlated with the geographical absence of the model species and its host plant, but not the host plant distribution of L. arthemis. Our results support the prediction that a Batesian mimic does not persist in locations without its model, but it does not go extinct either. The mimic can revert back to its ancestral, less conspicuous form and persist.     

Calculating bootstrap probabilities of phylogeny using multilocus sequence data

Phylogeny estimation is extremely crucial in the study of molecular evolution. The increase in the amount of available genomic data facilitates phylogeny estimation from multilocus sequence data. Although maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are available for phylogeny reconstruction using multilocus sequence data, these methods require heavy computation, and their application is limited to the analysis of a moderate number of genes and taxa. Distance matrix methods present suitable alternatives for analyzing huge amounts of sequence data. However, the manner in which distance methods can be applied to multilocus sequence data remains unknown. Here, we suggest new procedures to estimate molecular phylogeny using multilocus sequence data and evaluate its significance in the framework of the distance method. We found that concatenation of the multilocus sequence data may result in incorrect phylogeny estimation with an extremely high bootstrap probability (BP), which is due to incorrect estimation of the distances and intentional ignorance of the intergene variations. Therefore, we suggest that the distance matrices for multilocus sequence data be estimated separately and these matrices be subsequently combined to reconstruct phylogeny instead of phylogeny reconstruction using concatenated sequence data. To calculate the BPs of the reconstructed phylogeny, we suggest that 2-stage bootstrap procedures be adopted; in this, genes are resampled followed by resampling of the sequence columns within the resampled genes. By resampling the genes during calculation of BPs, intergene variations are properly considered. Via simulation studies and empirical data analysis, we demonstrate that our 2-stage bootstrap procedures are more suitable than the conventional bootstrap procedure that is adopted after sequence concatenation.     

The complete mitochondrial genome of Biston panterinaria (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), with phylogenetic utility of mitochondrial genome in the Lepidoptera

The complete mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) of the Chinese pistacia looper Biston panterinaria was sequenced and annotated (15,517 bp). It contains the typical 37 genes of animal mitogenomes and a high A + T content (79.5%). All protein coding genes (PCGs) use standard ATN initiation codons except for cytochrome c oxidase 1 (COX1) with CGA. Eleven PCGs use a common stop codon of TAA or TAG, whereas COX2 and NADH dehydrogenase 4 (ND4) use a single T. All transfer RNA (tRNA) genes have the typical clover-leaf structure with the exception of tRNA^Ser(AGN). We reconstructed a preliminary mitochondrial phylogeny of six ditrysian superfamilies and performed comparative analyses of inference methods (Bayesian Inference (BI), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and Maximum Parsimony (MP)), dataset compositions (including and excluding 3rd codon positions), and alignment methods (Muscle, Clustal W, and MAFFT). Our analyses indicated that inference methods and dataset compositions more significantly affected the phylogenetic results than alignment methods. BI analysis consistently revealed uncontroversial relationships with all dataset compositions. By contrast, ML analysis failed to reconstruct stable phylogeny at two nodes, whereas MP analysis had more difficulties in the tree resolution and nodal support. Distinct from most previous studies, our analyses revealed that Geometroidea had a closer lineage relationship with Bombycoidea than Noctuoidea. Similar to previous molecular studies, our analyses revealed that Hesperiidae were nested in the Papilionoidea clade, providing further evidence to the previous concept that Papilionoidea was paraphyletic, and none of the butterflies were associated with the Macroheterocera.     

Comparative whole genome analysis of six diagnostic brucellaphages

Whole genome sequencing of six diagnostic brucellaphages, Tbilisi (Tb), Firenze (Fz), Weybridge (Wb), S708, Berkeley (Bk) and R/C, was followed with genomic comparisons including recently described genomes of the Tb phage from Mexico (Tb_M) and Pr phage to elucidate genomic diversity and candidate host range determinants. Comparative whole genome analysis revealed high sequence homogeneity among these brucellaphage genomes and resolved three genetic groups consistent with defined host range phenotypes. Group I was composed of Tb and Fz phages that are predominantly lytic for Brucella abortus and Brucella neotomae; Group II included Bk, R/C, and Pr phages that are lytic mainly for B. abortus, Brucella melitensis and Brucella suis; Group III was composed of Wb and S708 phages that are lytic for B. suis, B. abortus and B. neotomae. We found that the putative phage collar protein is a variable locus with features that may be contributing to the host specificities exhibited by different brucellaphage groups. The presence of several candidate host range determinants is illustrated herein for future dissection of the differential host specificity observed among these phages.     

Comparative analyses of the complete mitochondrial genomes of the two ruminant hookworms Bunostomum trigonocephalum and Bunostomum phlebotomum

Bunostomum trigonocephalum and Bunostomum phlebotomum are blood-feeding hookworms of sheep and cattle, causing considerable economic losses to the live stock industries. Studying genetic variability within and among hookworm populations is critical to addressing epidemiological and ecological questions. Mitochondrial (mt) DNA is known to provide useful markers for investigations of population genetics of hookworms, but mt genome sequence data are scant. In the present study, the complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences of the sheep and goat hookworm B. trigonocephalum were determined for the first time, and the mt genome of B. phlebotomum from yak in China was also sequenced for comparative analyses of their gene contents and genome organizations. The lengths of mt DNA sequences of B. trigonocephalum sheep isolate, B.trigonocephalum goat isolate and B. phlebotomum China yak isolate were 13,764 bp, 13,771 bp and 13,803 bp in size, respectively. The identity of the mt genomes was 99.7% between B. trigonocephalum sheep isolate and B. trigonocephalum goat isolate. The identity of B. phlebotomum China yak isolate mt genomes was 85.3% with B. trigonocephalum sheep isolate, and 85.2% with B. trigonocephalum goat isolate. All the mt genes of the two hookworms were transcribed in the same direction and gene arrangements were consistent with those of the GA3 type, including 12 protein-coding genes, 2 rRNA genes and 22 tRNA genes, but lacking ATP synthetase subunit 8 gene. The mt genomes of B. trigonocephalum and B. phlebotomum were similar to prefer bases A and T, the contents of A + T are 76.5% (sheep isolate), 76.4% (goat isolate) and 76.9% (China yak isolate), respectively. Phylogenetic relationships reconstructed using concatenated amino acid sequences of 12 protein-coding genes with three methods (maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference and neighbor joining) revealed that the B. trigonocephalum and B. phlebotomum represent distinct but closely-related species. These data provide novel and useful genetic markers for studying the systematics, and population genetics of the two ruminant hookworms.