STABILITY IN THE PROPORTION OF HARBOR SEALS HAULED OUT UNDER LOCALLY IDEAL CONDITIONS

We monitored the haul-out behavior of 68 radio-tagged harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina ) during the molt season at two Alaskan haul-out sites (Grand Island, August-September 1994; Nanvak Bay, August-September 2000). For each site, we created a statistical model of the proportion of seals hauled out as a function of date, time of day, tide, and weather covariates. Using these models, we identified the conditions that would result in the greatest proportion of seals hauled out. Although those "ideal conditions" differed between sites, the proportion of seals predicted to be hauled out under those conditions was very similar (81.3% for Grand Island and 85.7% for Nanvak Bay). The similar estimates for both sites suggest that haul-out proportions under locally ideal conditions may be constant between years and geographic regions, at least during the molt season.     

两种生态系统服务价值评估方法比较研究——以四川省金堂县三星镇土地整治工程为例

乡镇土地整治是建设中国美丽乡村的重要途径,对当地生态环境带来正面和负面影响,如何准确评价其生态效益是国家开展土地整治和美丽乡村建设需要面临的重要科学问题。以中国西南部丘陵地区典型乡镇——四川省金堂县三星镇的土地整治工程为例,对比分析了生态系统服务价值当量修正法和单项服务评价法评估土地整治生态效益的异同,以期确定适合我国西南部丘陵地区乡镇土地整治生态效益评估的合理方法。研究结果表明:单项服务评价法的评估结果(生态系统服务价值约300万元)比当量修正法(生态系统服务价值约290万元)高3.5%。当量修正法评估的各项生态系统服务价值增量由高到低依次为:调节服务价值>支持服务价值>供给服务价值>文化服务价值;单项服务评价法评估的生态系统服务价值增量大小排序为:调节服务价值>支持服务价值>文化服务价值>供给服务价值。方法依据和参数的选取不同,导致评估结果具有显著差异,主要表现在单项服务评价法测算的维持养分循环价值、美学景观价值分别是当量修正法的46.90倍和6.94倍,当量修正法测算的水文调节价值是单项服务评价法的5.93倍。单项服务评价法针对各项生态系统服务...     

Bias-reduced estimators of conditional odds ratios in matched case-control studies with unmatched confounding

We study bias-reduced estimators of exponentially transformed parameters in general linear models (GLMs) and show how they can be used to obtain bias-reduced conditional (or unconditional) odds ratios in matched case-control studies. Two options are considered and compared: the explicit approach and the implicit approach. The implicit approach is based on the modified score function where bias-reduced estimates are obtained by using iterative procedures to solve the modified score equations. The explicit approach is shown to be a one-step approximation of this iterative procedure. To apply these approaches for the conditional analysis of matched case-control studies, with potentially unmatched confounding and with several exposures, we utilize the relation between the conditional likelihood and the likelihood of the unconditional logit binomial GLM for matched pairs and Cox partial likelihood for matched sets with appropriately setup data. The properties of the estimators are evaluated by using a large Monte Carlo simulation study and an illustration of a real dataset is shown. Researchers reporting the results on the exponentiated scale should use bias-reduced estimators since otherwise the effects can be under or overestimated, where the magnitude of the bias is especially large in studies with smaller sample sizes.     

Global Positioning System (GPS) location accuracy improvement due to selective availability removal

Global Positioning System (GPS) is an important new technology for spatio-temporal behaviour studies of animals. Differential correction improves location accuracy. Previously, it mostly removed partially the influence of Selective Availability (SA). SA was deactivated in May 2000. The aim of this study was to quantify the influence of SA cancellation on location accuracy of various GPS receivers. We tested the accuracy of locations obtained from non-differential and differential GPS animal collars before and after SA removal. We found a significant improvement in accuracy for both types of GPS collars. However, differential GPS still provides more accurate locations.     

Small-sample bias and corrections for conditional maximum-likelihood odds-ratio estimators

A number of small-sample corrections have been proposed for the conditional maximum-likelihood estimator of the odds ratio for matched pairs with a dichotomous exposure. I here contrast the rationale and performance of several corrections, specifically those that generalize easily to multiple conditional logistic regression. These corrections or Bayesian analyses with informative priors may serve as diagnostics for small-sample problems. Points are illustrated with a small exact performance comparison and with an example from a study of electrical wiring and childhood leukemia. The former comparison suggests that small-sample bias may be more prevalent than commonly realized.     

Ab Initio and DFT Study of the Structures,Vibrations and Energetics of the Urea Dimer and Trimer

Stable structures and electronic properties of small urea clusters are investigated with ab initio calculations. We optimized the cluster geometries and calculated the vibrational frequencies with Hartree–Fock (HF), second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), and Density Functional Theory (DFT) methods using different basis sets. The most stable dimer was found to consist of two nonplanar urea molecules which are connected by two N–-H...O bonds in a common plane, and the most stable trimer has a flat structure of complex and planar C2 form for each urea molecule, like in the crystal. The interaction energies were corrected for the basis set superposition error (BSSE) using the full Boys*ndash;Bernardi counterpoise correction scheme. The stability of different dimer and trimer structures, the features of formation of H-bonds and presented here are compared to the available experimental data.     

Effects of endophyte fungal species and host plant genotype on the leaf shape and leaf area of endophyte-grass symbionts

Epichloë内生真菌感染能够影响宿主植物的生长发育, 但关于内生真菌感染对宿主植物叶形状和叶面积的研究很少。该研究以羽茅(Achnatherum sibiricum)为实验材料, 采用长宽系数计算和扫描测定叶面积相结合的方法探究内生真菌种类和羽茅母本基因型对羽茅-内生真菌共生体叶形状和叶面积的影响。结果表明: 内生真菌感染与否、内生真菌种类和宿主母本基因型对反映叶形状的叶校正系数、叶片长度、宽度和长宽比均无显著影响, 经计算与验证, 确定了羽茅叶片的校正系数为0.594 9。采用该校正系数及叶长宽计算的叶面积与实测叶面积无显著差异, 且二者均未受到内生真菌感染与否、内生真菌种类或宿主植物母本基因型的显著影响。     

Estimating and Correcting for Bias in Population Assessments of Sooty Shearwaters

Abstract: We investigated the precision and accuracy of an infrared burrowscope for detecting sooty shearwater (Pufffinus griseus) chicks at 13 plots from 3 islands in southern New Zealand in 2003. We partially excavated burrows systems to reveal the entire burrow contents after 2 teams of observers had prospected all burrow entrances. Accuracy was similar between islands and observer teams at approximately 85%. The majority of the inaccuracy stemmed from failure to detect some chicks. Logistic regression modeling identified 4 burrow characteristics occurring between the entrance and the nest-site that influenced detection of burrow occupants. Detection was lower at nest-sites further from burrow entrances, in burrows with a high rate of burrow division, and in burrows with a high level of curvature. There was a positive relationship between the interaction of rate of division and curvature and detection of chicks. Distance from the burrow entrance was the only parameter that could be reliably used as a predictor of detection rate, so a reduced model containing only this variable was constructed to correct for burrowscope bias. The correction factor performed well on The Snares and Bench Island where predicted bias was very similar to observed levels (within 5%), but bias was overestimated on Putauhinu by up to 19.1%. Consistent bias, lack of damage to burrows from excavation, and the successful application of a correction factor all indicate the value of further testing burrowscope accuracy on other burrow-nesting seabird species.     

TVDI模型的农业旱情时空变化遥感应用

温度植被干旱指数(TVDI)是一种通过反演土壤湿度来反映农业干旱状况的重要方法,其中能量平衡和植被指数的变化是影响TVDI模型精度的主要因子。在研究比值植被指数(RVI)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、增强型植被指数(EVI)和修正土壤调节植被指数(MSAVI)和下垫面温度(Ts)的基础上,引入DEM数据并对Ts做地形校正,减少了地形起伏对能量平衡的影响,建立不同植被指数的Ts-Ⅵ特征空间,选择与土壤湿度相关性最好的温度植被干旱指数(TVDI),获取研究区2005年作物生长季(5—9月)的干旱状况,并用同步的气象信息对干旱状况进行验证。结果表明:根据不同时期采用不同植被指数的TVDI模型,经过地形校正后能够更好地反映研究区的农业干旱状况。