Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change

The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate‐change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2‐year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid‐Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid‐1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain‐filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade‐off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting climate factors specifically.     

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km²) suggest that fine‐grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate‐change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine‐grained thermal variability across a 2500‐km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000‐m² units (community‐inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1‐km² units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1‐km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100‐km² units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing‐season CiT range within 1‐km² units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography‐related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing‐season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing‐season CiT within 100‐km² units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km^?1) than spatial turnover in growing‐season GiT (0.18 °C km^?1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1‐km² units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.     

Persistent versus transient tree encroachment of temperate peat bogs: effects of climate warming and drought events

Peatlands store approximately 30% of global soil carbon, most in moss‐dominated bogs. Future climatic changes, such as changes in precipitation patterns and warming, are expected to affect peat bog vegetation composition and thereby its long‐term carbon sequestration capacity. Theoretical work suggests that an episode of rapid environmental change is more likely to trigger transitions to alternative ecosystem states than a gradual, but equally large, change in conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore the impacts of drought events and increased temperature on vegetation composition of temperate peat bogs. We analyzed the consequences of six patterns of summer drought events combined with five temperature scenarios to test whether an open peat bog dominated by moss (Sphagnum) could shift to a tree‐dominated state. Unexpectedly, neither a gradual decrease in the amount of summer precipitation nor the occurrence of a number of extremely dry summers in a row could shift the moss‐dominated peat bog permanently into a tree‐dominated peat bog. The increase in tree biomass during drought events was unable to trigger positive feedbacks that keep the ecosystem in a tree‐dominated state after a return to previous ‘normal’ rainfall conditions. In contrast, temperature increases from 1 °C onward already shifted peat bogs into tree‐dominated ecosystems. In our simulations, drought events facilitated tree establishment, but temperature determined how much tree biomass could develop. Our results suggest that under current climatic conditions, peat bog vegetation is rather resilient to drought events, but very sensitive to temperature increases, indicating that future warming is likely to trigger persistent vegetation shifts.     

Environmental gradients shift the direction of the relationship between native and alien plant species richness

Aim

To assess how environmental, biotic and anthropogenic factors shape native–alien plant species richness relationships across a heterogeneous landscape.

Location

Banks Peninsula, New Zealand.

Methods

We integrated a comprehensive floristic survey of over 1200 systematically located 6 × 6 m plots, with corresponding climate, environmental and anthropogenic data. General linear models examined variation in native and alien plant species richness across the entire landscape, between native‐ and alien‐dominated plots, and within separate elevational bands.

Results

Across all plots, there was a significant negative correlation between native and alien species richness, but this relationship differed within subsets of the data: the correlation was positive in alien‐dominated plots but negative in native‐dominated plots. Within separate elevational bands, native and alien species richness were positively correlated at lower elevations, but negatively correlated at higher elevations. Alien species richness tended to be high across the elevation gradient but peaked in warmer, mid‐ to low‐elevation sites, while native species richness increased linearly with elevation. The negative relationship between native and alien species richness in native‐dominated communities reflected a land‐use gradient with low native and high alien richness in more heavily modified native‐dominated vegetation. In contrast, native and alien richness were positively correlated in very heavily modified alien‐dominated plots, most likely due to covariation along a gradient of management intensity.

Main conclusions

Both positive and negative native–alien richness relationships can occur across the same landscape, depending on the plant community and the underlying human and environmental gradients examined. Human habitat modification, which is often confounded with environmental variation, can result in high alien and low native species richness in areas still dominated by native species. In the most heavily human modified areas, dominated by alien species, both native and alien species may be responding to similar underlying gradients.

     

Multi‐species distribution modelling highlights the Adelaide Geosyncline,South Australia,as an important continental‐scale arid‐zone refugium

The mainland portion of the Adelaide Geosyncline (Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges) has been postulated as an important arid‐zone climate refugium for Australia. To test the sensitivity of this putative Australian arid biome refugium to contemporary climate change, we compared Generalized Additive Modelling and MaxEnt distribution models for 20 vascular plant species. We aimed to identify shared patterns to inform priority areas for management. Models based on current climate were projected onto a hypothetical 2050 climate with a 1.5°C increase in temperature and 8% decrease in rainfall. Individual comparisons and combined outputs of logistic models for all 20 species showed range contraction to shared refugia in the Flinders Ranges and southern Mount Lofty Ranges. Modelling suggests the Flinders Ranges will experience species turnover while suitable climatic habitat will be retained in the Mount Lofty Ranges for the current suite of species. Fragmentation of the southern Mount Lofty Ranges poses management challenges for conserving species diversity with warming and drying. Although projected models must be interpreted carefully, they suggest the region will remain an important but threatened refugium for mesic species at a continental scale.     

Rainfall in prior breeding seasons influences population size of a small marsupial

The imposition of the stresses of climate change (higher temperatures and in many regions lower rainfall) on existing stressors, such as habitat loss and degradation, will increase pressures on native fauna already experiencing declines. We focused on assessing how the ‘Big Dry’ (severe drought, 1997–2010) in south‐eastern Australia affected populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the yellow‐footed antechinus (Antechinus flavipes), in box‐ironbark forests, which suffer a range of anthropogenic disturbances. Trapping of the mammal was conducted on 136 (0.25 ha) sites in two box‐ironbark forests in 2004, 2005 and 2011 (46 or 64 sites per year). Capture rates of all distinct individuals, males and second‐year females with suckled teats, and the number of suckled teats were positively associated with rainfall in the previous September (time of lactation and deposition of young in nests). Despite differences between forests in capture rates of all individuals, the positive effect of rainfall was evident in both forests. Populations in one forest, Chiltern, were substantially larger than other locations surveyed in 2004 and 2005, yet crashed to small numbers in 2011. This crash was most likely due to low rainfall in the preceding years including the lowest recorded annual rainfall (2006), below‐average annual rainfall (2007, 2008 and 2009) and well‐below‐average rainfall in September (2006, 2007 and 2008). The predicted drying and warming climate in south‐eastern Australia and habitat loss and degradation pose a threat to the viability of the yellow‐footed antechinus in box‐ironbark forests. An integrated approach to small‐mammal management is necessary given that the region may be facing additional losses, especially during droughts, to those already experienced since the early 1800s. Our work emphasizes the need to identify specific effects of stressors on vital demographic characteristics of species.     

Activity restriction and the mechanistic basis for extinctions under climate warming

Correlative analyses predict that anthropogenic climate warming will cause widespread extinction but the nature and generality of the underlying mechanisms is unclear. Warming‐induced activity restriction has been proposed as a general explanatory mechanism for recent population extinctions in lizards, and has been used to forecast future extinction. Here, I test this hypothesis using globally applied biophysical calculations of the effects of warming and shade reduction on potential activity time and whole‐life‐cycle energy budgets. These ‘thermodynamic niche’ analyses show that activity restriction from climate warming is unlikely to provide a general explanation of recent extinctions, and that loss of shade is viable alternative explanation. Climate warming could cause population declines, even under increased activity potential, through joint impacts on fecundity and mortality rates. However, such responses depend strongly on behaviour, habitat (shade, food) and life history, all of which should be explicitly incorporated in mechanistic forecasts of extinction risk under climate change.