Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between‐year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.     

Mosaicism in a new Eocene pufferfish highlights rapid morphological innovation near the origin of crown tetraodontiforms

Tetraodontiformes (pufferfishes and kin) is a taxonomically and structurally diverse, widely‐distributed clade of acanthomorphs, whose members often serve as models for genomics and, increasingly, macroevolutionary studies. Morphologically disparate Palaeogene fossils suggest considerable early experimentation, but these flattened specimens often preserve limited information. We present a three‐dimensionally preserved beaked tetraodontiform from the early Eocene (c. 53 Ma) London Clay Formation, UK. Approximately coeval with the oldest crown tetraodontiforms, ?Ctenoplectus williamsi gen. et sp. nov. presents an unprecedented combination of characters, pairing a fused beak‐like dentition with prominent dorsal‐fin spines that insert atop transversely‐expanded pterygiophores roofing the skull. Bayesian total‐evidence tip‐dating analysis indicates that ?Ctenoplectus represents the sister lineage of Triodontidae and highlights considerable levels of homoplasy in early tetraodontiform evolution. According to our dataset, rates of morphological character evolution were elevated at the origin of crown Tetraodontiformes, especially within gymnodonts, but declined after the principal body plans were established. Such ‘early burst’ patterns are regarded as a hallmark of adaptive radiations, but are typically associated with diversification at smaller spatiotemporal scales. However, denser sampling of Neogene and Recent taxa is needed to confirm this pattern.     

Seasonal temperature and precipitation regulate brook trout young‐of‐the‐year abundance and population dynamics

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Species traits and catchment‐scale habitat factors influence the occurrence of freshwater mussel populations and assemblages

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Evidential statistics as a statistical modern synthesis to support 21st century science

During the 20th century, population ecology and science in general relied on two very different statistical paradigms to solve its inferential problems: error statistics (also referred to as classical statistics and frequentist statistics) and Bayesian statistics. A great deal of good science was done using these tools, but both schools suffer from technical and philosophical difficulties. At the turning of the 21st century (Royall in Statistical evidence: a likelihood paradigm. Chapman & Hall, London, 1997 ; Lele in The nature of scientific evidence: statistical, philosophical and empirical considerations. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 191–216, 2004a ), evidential statistics emerged as a seriously contending paradigm. Drawing on and refining elements from error statistics, likelihoodism, Bayesian statistics, information criteria, and robust methods, evidential statistics is a statistical modern synthesis that smoothly incorporates model identification, model uncertainty, model comparison, parameter estimation, parameter uncertainty, pre-data control of error, and post-data strength of evidence into a single coherent framework. We argue that evidential statistics is currently the most effective statistical paradigm to support 21st century science. Despite the power of the evidential paradigm, we think that there is no substitute for learning how to clarify scientific arguments with statistical arguments. In this paper we sketch and relate the conceptual bases of error statistics, Bayesian statistics and evidential statistics. We also discuss a number of misconceptions about the paradigms that have hindered practitioners, as well as some real problems with the error and Bayesian statistical paradigms solved by evidential statistics.