BMA‐Mod: A Bayesian model averaging strategy for determining dose‐response relationships in the presence of model uncertainty

Successful pharmaceutical drug development requires finding correct doses. The issues that conventional dose‐response analyses consider, namely whether responses are related to doses, which doses have responses differing from a control dose response, the functional form of a dose‐response relationship, and the dose(s) to carry forward, do not need to be addressed simultaneously. Determining if a dose‐response relationship exists, regardless of its functional form, and then identifying a range of doses to study further may be a more efficient strategy. This article describes a novel estimation‐focused Bayesian approach (BMA‐Mod) for carrying out the analyses when the actual dose‐response function is unknown. Realizations from Bayesian analyses of linear, generalized linear, and nonlinear regression models that may include random effects and covariates other than dose are optimally combined to produce distributions of important secondary quantities, including test‐control differences, predictive distributions of possible outcomes from future trials, and ranges of doses corresponding to target outcomes. The objective is similar to the objective of the hypothesis‐testing based MCP‐Mod approach, but provides more model and distributional flexibility and does not require testing hypotheses or adjusting for multiple comparisons. A number of examples illustrate the application of the method.     

Costly signaling and the handicap principle in hunter‐gatherer research: A critical review

It has been argued that men's hunting in many forager groups is not, primarily, a means of family provisioning but is a costly way of signaling otherwise cryptic qualities related to hunting ability. Much literature concerning the signaling value of hunting draws links to Zahavi's handicap principle and the costly signaling literature in zoology. However, although nominally grounded in the same theoretical paradigm, these literatures have evolved separately. Here I review honest signaling theory in both hunter‐gatherer studies and zoology and highlight three issues with the costly signaling literature in hunter‐gather studies: (a) an overemphasis on the demonstration of realized costs, which are neither necessary nor sufficient to diagnose costly signaling; (b) a lack of clear predictions about what specific qualities hunting actually signals; and (c) an insufficient focus on the broadcast effectiveness of hunting and its value as a heuristics for signal recipients. Rather than signaling hunting prowess, hunting might instead facilitate reputation‐building.     

THE COST OF RELIABLE SIGNALING: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FOR PREDICTABLE VARIATION AMONG MALES IN A COST-BENEFIT TRADE-OFF BETWEEN SEXUALLY SELECTED TRAITS

Claw size of male fiddler crabs, Uca perplexa appears to be a target of female choice that increases the likelihood a female will initially approach a male. Here we show that a behavioral display trait, the maximum height that the tip of the claw reaches during a courtship wave, is a strong correlate of the subsequent likelihood that a female will visit a male's burrow (which is a prerequisite for a burrow mating). We experimentally manipulated claw mass, to test whether there is a trade-off between claw mass and wave height. Males with a metal weight added to their claw showed a large reduction in wave height, whereas control males (plastic added) showed no net change in wave height. There is therefore a trade-off between these two sexually selected traits (claw size and wave display). More importantly, the greater the initial wave height the smaller the subsequent decline in wave height. Assuming that variation in wave height is an index of quality, this variation in the cost-benefit trade-off is consistent with the requirements of a signaling system that conforms to the handicap principle when fitness is the multiplicative product of different fitness components. We conclude by discussing the ongoing difficulties in testing the handicap principle.     

Errors associated with using Archimedes' principle to determine mass and volume of small aquatic organisms

Archimedes' principle can be effectively applied to measure the mass and volume of small aquatic organisms by weighing the organism in waters of two densities, and then comparing those values with the weights of a plummet weighed in the same waters. However, the weight-in-water measurements are subject to error, and this work outlines how to calculate the standard errors of organism mass and volume, and a straightforward approach to calculating organism mass and volume itself. Guidance for the design of a plummet and setting a water density difference that minimizes the standard errors of the measurements is also presented.     

The Default Value Approach to the Precautionary Principle

In science, when information is lacking, the reasonable response is to suspend judgement. When incomplete scientific information is to be used for decision-making purposes, such as regulation, the option of suspending judgement is not available. In such situations the precautionary principle may be used. One of several problems with the precautionary principle is that it is poorly defined and difficult to operationalize. We propose a way of operationalizing the precautionary principle through assigning cautious default values to variables that are needed in the risk analysis but are nevertheless unknown. A formalized model is introduced, in which the precautionary principle is interpreted in terms of default values of chemicals regulation. Four different methods for choosing default values (positive list, negative list, statistical expectation, and precaution) are discussed.