Warming drives poleward range contractions of Beringian endemic plant species at high latitudes

Aim

Species are expected to disperse poleward in response to climate change. For species that are endemic to the high latitudes, this implies that many in the future would face a “no-where-to-go” situation as they are currently occupying the northernmost portion of the continent. Further, because endemism may arise from a combination of physical barriers, climate and geological history, the persistence of many species may require spatial matching of multiple environmental factors within a limited dispersal space. Thus, it is not clear how endemic species might spatially adjust their distributions in response to climate change and whether there are future climate change refugia for these species.

Location

Northwest North America.

Taxa

Plants.

Time Period

Current and the future (2040).

Methods

We used ensemble bioclimatic models to evaluate drivers and directional patterns of future change in the distributions of 66 North American Beringian and amphi-Beringian species currently occurring in Alaska and the Yukon. We explored the spatial pattern of species richness, losses and climate change refugia across the region.

Results

More than 80% of the species showed northward shifts in their latitudinal centroids under intermediate warming and are expected to shift their range northward by more than 140 km on average by 2040. Additionally, more than 60% were projected to experience range contractions and up to 20% of the species would have the potential to expand their ranges by more than 100%.

Main Conclusions

Suitable habitat for endemic species in northwest North America is expected to decline significantly, especially for species occupying the Arctic tundra. Although the models identified several potential refugia from future climate change, especially at high latitude and elevation, whether the species would be able to colonize new habitats on their own and/or capitalize sufficiently on in situ refugia remains a pertinent conservation question.     

Are corticosterone levels a good indicator of food availability and reproductive performance in a kittiwake colony?

We evaluated the use of corticosterone to gauge forage availability and predict reproductive performance in black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) breeding in Alaska during 1999 and 2000. We modeled the relationship between baseline levels of corticosterone and a suite of individual and temporal characteristics of the sampled birds. We also provided supplemental food to a sample of pairs and compared their corticosterone levels with that of pairs that were not fed. Corticosterone levels were a good predictor of forage availability in some situations, although inconsistencies between corticosterone levels and reproductive performance of fed and unfed kittiwakes suggested that this was not always the case. In general, higher corticosterone levels were found in birds that lacked breeding experience and in birds sampled shortly after arriving from their wintering grounds. All parameters investigated, however, explained only a small proportion of the variance in corticosterone levels. We also investigated whether corticosterone, supplemental feeding, year of the study, breeding experience, body weight, and sex of a bird were able to predict laying, hatching, and fledging success in kittiwakes. Here, breeding experience, year of the study, and body weight were the best predictors of a bird's performance. Corticosterone level and supplemental feeding were good predictors of kittiwake reproductive performance in some cases. For example, corticosterone levels of birds sampled during the arrival stage reliably predicted laying success, but were less reliable at predicting hatching and fledging success. Counts of active nests with eggs or chicks may be more reliable estimates of the actual productivity of the colony. Supplemental feeding had strong effects on kittiwake productivity when natural forage was poor, but had little effect when natural forage was plentiful.     

Ecology of the fruit-colour polymorphism in Rubus spectabilis

Although some studies have focused on the colour polymorphisms of flowers and fruits, little is known of their ecological and evolutionary significance. We investigated the potential contribution of several factors to the maintenance of fruit-colour polymorphism in Rubus spectabilis, a common shrub in the temperate rainforests of southeast Alaska. Fruits occur in two colours (red and orange), whose frequencies vary geographically. The two colour morphs have similar size, weight, seed load and nutrient composition. Colour preferences of avian frugivores, in the aviary and in the field, varied among individuals, but the majority favoured red fruits. Seed predators (mostly rodents) did not discriminate between seeds from different morphs. The effect of seed passage through the digestive tract of frugivores (birds and bears) on germination was similar for both morphs, although there were significant differences among frugivores. The type of soil on which the seeds are deposited influenced their germination behaviour, suggesting that some soils could favour one morph over the other. Such differences may contribute to the regional differences in frequencies of the two morphs. This study emphasizes the need to investigate fruit and seed characteristics that correlate with fruit colour; the colour preferences of consumers is only one of several selection pressures that determine the frequency distribution of fruit colours. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

EVALUATION OF THE ALASKA HARBOR SEAL (PHOCA VITULINA) POPULATION SURVEY: A SIMULATION STUDY

We used simulation to investigate robust designs and analyses for detecting trends from population surveys of Alaska harbor seals. We employed an operating model approach, creating simulated harbor seal population dynamics and haul-out behavior that incorporated factors thought to potentially affect the performance of aerial surveys. The factors included the number of years, the number of haul-out sites in an area, the number and timing of surveys within a year, known and unknown covariates affecting haul-out behavior, substrate effects, movement among substrates, and variability in survey and population parameters. We found estimates of population trend were robust to the majority of potentially confounding factors, and that adjusting counts for the effects of covariates was both possible and beneficial. The use of mean or maximum counts by site without covariate correction can lead to substantial bias and low power in trend determination. For covariate-corrected trend estimates, there was minimal bias and loss of accuracy was negligible when surveys were conducted 20 d before or after peak haul-out attendance, survey date became progressively earlier across years, and peak attendance fluctuated across years. Trend estimates were severely biased when the effect of an unknown covariate resulted in a long-term trend in the fraction of the population hauled out. A key factor governing the robustness and power of harbor seal population surveys is intersite variability in trend. This factor is well understood for sites within the Prince William Sound and Kodiak trend routes for which at least 10 consecutive annual surveys have been conducted, but additional annual counts are needed for other areas. The operating model approach proved to be an effective means of evaluating these surveys and should be used to evaluate other marine mammal survey designs.     

DISTRIBUTION OF KILLER WHALE PODS IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, ALASKA 1984–1996

Thirteen years of encounter data (1984–1996) were used to examine killer whale distribution within Prince William Sound, Alaska. Four patterns of area use were found, which comprised differences between resident pods and transient groups and differences among resident groups. Resident pods frequented large open passages, while transient groups used the narrow passages and bays in the southwest. This dichotomy likely reflects resident use of salmon and transient use of pinniped prey resources, as well as the different foraging strategies required for these prey types. Four resident pods (AB, AI, AJ, and AN) used Knight Island Passage more than other areas of the Sound; two (AE and AK) used all areas of the Sound more evenly. Use of the Sound by the AT1 transient whales declined in the latter part of the study. Nearshore foraging for pinniped prey by the AT1 transient whales was more common in areas where these whales spend a disproportionate amount of time, suggesting that these areas were critical foraging habitat for them. No similar pattern emerged for Open-water Foraging for cetaceans by AT1 whales, nor for foraging by the resident whales.     

Sugar and starch changes in pea cotyledons during germination

Changes in starch and sugar contents in the cotyledons during germination have been compared in a smooth (cv. Alaska) and a wrinkled (cv. Progress) cultivar of the garden pea ( Pisum sativum L.). In both cultivars there was an initial accumulation of sucrose due to the hydrolysis of sucrosyl oligosaccharides, but galactose did not accumulate in the cotyledons. Starch mobilization in the Progress pea was linear with time and started before the rise in α-amylase (EC 3.2.1.1) activity in the cotyledons; sucrose was synthesized in the cotyledons, and their excision from the axis resulted in an additional accumulation of this sugar. In the Alaska pea, the onset of starch hydrolysis coincided with the rise in α-amylase activity; no accumulation of sucrose was found in excised cotyledons, whilst the sucrose content decreased continuously in attached cotyledons.
The same sugars were found in the cotyledons of both cultivars, suggesting a common pathway for starch breakdown. Maltose, maltotriose and linear malto-dextrins were not present and only trace amounts of glucose were detected, suggesting a degradation of starch by phosphorylase after an initial attack by α-amylase. α-Amylase activity in the cotyledons was higher in the presence of the axis, but was influenced by the water content of the cotyledons. Transient changes in α-amylase activity correlated well with changes in the rate of starch hydrolysis, but after 2–3 days starch mobilization was reduced in excised cotyledons probably due to the resynthesis of starch.     

Juvenile chum salmon consumption of zooplankton in marine waters of southeastern Alaska: a bioenergetics approach to implications of hatchery stock interactions

Bioenergetics modeling was used to estimate zooplankton prey consumption of hatchery and unmarked stocks of juvenile chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) migrating seaward in littoral (nearshore) and neritic (epipelagic offshore) marine habitats of southeastern Alaska. A series of model runs were completed using biophysical data collected in Icy Strait, a regional salmon migration corridor, in May, June, July, August, and September of 2001. These data included a temperature (1-m surface versus surface to 20-m average), zooplankton standing crop (surface to 20-m depth versus entire water column), chum salmon diet (percent weight of prey type consumed), energy densities, and weight. Known numbers of hatchery releases were used in a cohort reconstruction model to estimate total abundance of hatchery and wild chum salmon in the northern region of southeastern Alaska, given average survival to adults and for two different (low and high) early marine littoral mortality rate assumptions. Total prey consumption was relatively insensitive to temperature differences associated with the depths potentially utilized by juvenile chum salmon. However, the magnitudes and temporal patterns of total prey consumed differed dramatically between the low and high mortality rate assumptions. Daily consumption rates from the bioenergetics model and CPUE abundance from sampling in Icy Strait were used to estimate amount and percentage of zooplankton standing crop consumed by mixed stocks of chum salmon. We estimated that only a small percentage of the available zooplankton was consumed by juvenile chum salmon, even during peak abundances of marked hatchery and unmarked mixed stocks in July. Total daily consumption of zooplankton by all stock groups of juvenile chum salmon was estimated to be between 330 and 1764 g/km²d¹ from June to September in the neritic habitat of Icy Strait. As with any modeling exercise, model outputs can be misleading if input parameters and underlying assumptions are not valid; therefore, additional studies are warranted, especially to determine physiological input parameters, and to improve abundance and mortality estimates specific to juvenile chum salmon. Future bioenergetics modeling is also needed to evaluate consumption by the highly abundant, vertically migrating planktivorous that co-occurred in our study; we suggest that these fishes have a greater impact on the zooplankton standing crop in Icy Strait than do hatchery stock groups of juvenile chum salmon.     

Phylogeography of a post-glacial colonizer: Microtus longicaudus (Rodentia: muridae)

The molecular phylogeography of Microtus longicaudus was investigated with DNA sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. We used phylogenetic and pairwise distance methods to reconstruct the history of the species with particular emphasis on the Pacific Northwest. Genetic variation across the species was consistent with vicariant events during the Pleistocene and subsequent northern postglacial expansion following the receding Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets. The largest break (> 6% uncorrected sequence divergence) was found to exist between populations found southeast of the Colorado River (eastern Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico) and all other western populations. Other well-supported subclades were composed of samples from: (i) the islands and north coast of southeast Alaska; (ii) eastern Alaska, British Columbia, Washington and Oregon; and (iii) northern California, Idaho and Montana. Within subclades, divergence was low. Our results suggest that the close relationships among haplotypes within northern subclades are a result of recent colonization, whereas higher among-subclade divergence is caused by genetic differentiation during prolonged periods of isolation, possibly as a result of mid-Pleistocene climatic events.     

Mountain goat survival in coastal Alaska: Effects of age,sex, and climate

Ecological theory predicts that individual survival should vary between sex and age categories due to differences in allocation of nutritional resources for growth and reproductive activities. During periods of environmental stress, such relationships may be exacerbated, and affect sex and age classes differently. We evaluated support for hypotheses about the relative roles of sex, age, and winter and summer climate on the probability of mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) survival in coastal Alaska. Specifically, we used known-fates analyses (Program MARK) to model the effects of age, sex, and climatic variation on survival using data collected from 279 radio-marked mountain goats (118 M, 161 F) in 9 separate study areas during 1977–2008. Models including age, sex, winter snowfall, and average daily summer temperature (during Jul–Aug) best explained variation in survival probability of mountain goats. Specifically, our findings revealed that old animals (9+ yr) have lower survival than younger animals. In addition, males tended to have lower survival than females, though differences only existed among prime-aged adult (5–8 yr) and old (9+ yr) age classes. Winter climate exerted the strongest effects on mountain goat survival; summer climate, however, was significant and principally influenced survival during the following winter via indirect effects. Furthermore, old animals were more sensitive to the effects of winter conditions than young or prime-aged animals. These findings detail how climate interacts with sex and age characteristics to affect mountain goat survival. Critically, we provide baseline survival rate statistics across various age, sex, and climate scenarios. These data will assist conservation and management of mountain goats by enabling detailed, model-based demographic forecasting of human and/or climate-based population impacts. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.