Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change

This paper aims: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate‐induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N‐AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N‐AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N‐AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop‐relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk‐prone areas for spring cereals are found in south‐west Finland, shifting to south‐east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO₂ fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.     

The ideal free distribution as an evolutionarily stable strategy

We examine the evolutionary stability of strategies for dispersal in heterogeneous patchy environments or for switching between discrete states (e.g. defended and undefended) in the context of models for population dynamics or species interactions in either continuous or discrete time. There have been a number of theoretical studies that support the view that in spatially heterogeneous but temporally constant environments there will be selection against unconditional, i.e. random, dispersal, but there may be selection for certain types of dispersal that are conditional in the sense that dispersal rates depend on environmental factors. A particular type of dispersal strategy that has been shown to be evolutionarily stable in some settings is balanced dispersal, in which the equilibrium densities of organisms on each patch are the same whether there is dispersal or not. Balanced dispersal leads to a population distribution that is ideal free in the sense that at equilibrium all individuals have the same fitness and there is no net movement of individuals between patches or states. We find that under rather general assumptions about the underlying population dynamics or species interactions, only such ideal free strategies can be evolutionarily stable. Under somewhat more restrictive assumptions (but still in considerable generality), we show that ideal free strategies are indeed evolutionarily stable. Our main mathematical approach is invasibility analysis using methods from the theory of ordinary differential equations and nonnegative matrices. Our analysis unifies and extends previous results on the evolutionary stability of dispersal or state-switching strategies.     

Phenological responses to small-scale spatial variation in snowmelt timing reveal compensatory and conservative strategies in subarctic-alpine plants

Background: In tundra ecosystems, the adjustment of phenological events, such as bud burst, to snowmelt timing is crucial to the climatic adaptation of plants. Natural small-scale variations in microclimate potentially enable plant populations to persist in a changing climate.

Aims: To assess how plant phenology responds to natural differences in snowmelt timing.

Methods: We observed the timing of eight vegetative and reproductive phenophases in seven dwarf-shrub species in relation to differences in snowmelt timing on a small spatial scale in an alpine environment in subarctic Finland.

Results: Some species and phenophases showed accelerated development with later snowmelt, thus providing full or partial compensation for the shorter snow-free period. Full compensation resulted in synchronous occurrence of phenophases across the snowmelt gradient. In other species, there was no acceleration of development. The timing of phenophases varied between two consecutive years and two opposing mountain slope aspects.

Conclusions: The results have shown three distinct patterns in the timing of phenophases in relation to snowmelt and suggest alternative strategies for adaptation to snowmelt timing. These strategies potentially apply to other species and tundra ecosystems and provide a framework, enabling one to compare and generalise phenological responses to snowmelt timing under different future climate scenarios.     

Adaptation changes in dynamic postural control and contingent negative variation during repeated transient forward translation in the elderly

Background

Adaptation changes in postural control and contingent negative variation (CNV) for the elderly were investigated during repeated forward floor translation.

Methods

Fifteen healthy elderly persons, living in the suburban area of Kanazawa City, Japan, underwent backward postural disturbance by a forward-floor translation (S2) 2 s after an auditory warning signal (S1). A set with 20 trials was repeated until a negative peak of late CNV was recognized in the 600-ms period before S2, and the last set was defined as the final set. Electroencephalograms, center of foot pressure in the anteroposterior direction (CoPap), and electromyograms of postural muscles were analyzed.

Results

CoPap displacement generated by the floor translation was significantly decreased until the twelfth trial in the first set, and mean CoPap displacement was smaller in the second and final sets than in the first set. The mean displacement was significantly smaller in the final set than the previous set. A late CNV with a negative peak was not recognized in the first and second sets. However, most subjects (13/15) showed a negative peak by the fourth set, when the late CNV started to increase negatively from about 1,000 ms after S1 and peaked at about 300 ms before S2. At about 160 ms before the CNV peak, the CoPap forward shift started. The increase in timing of the gastrocnemius activity related to the CoPap shift was significantly correlated with the CNV peak timing (r = 0.64). After S2, peak amplitudes of the anterior postural muscles were significantly decreased in the final set compared to the first set.

Conclusions

It was demonstrated that even for the elderly, with so many repetitions of postural disturbance, a late CNV with a negative peak was recognized, leading to accurate postural preparation. This suggests the improvement of frontal lobe function (e.g., anticipatory attention and motor preparation) in the elderly.     

Stochastic models for the Trojan Y-Chromosome eradication strategy of an invasive species

The Trojan Y-Chromosome (TYC) strategy, an autocidal genetic biocontrol method, has been proposed to eliminate invasive alien species. In this work, we develop a Markov jump process model for this strategy, and we verify that there is a positive probability for wild-type females going extinct within a finite time. Moreover, when sex-reversed Trojan females are introduced at a constant population size, we formulate a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model as an approximation to the proposed Markov jump process model. Using the SDE model, we investigate the probability distribution and expectation of the extinction time of wild-type females by solving Kolmogorov equations associated with these statistics. The results indicate how the probability distribution and expectation of the extinction time are shaped by the initial conditions and the model parameters.     

Varying foraging patterns in response to competition? A multicolony approach in a generalist seabird

Reducing resource competition is a crucial requirement for colonial seabirds to ensure adequate self‐ and chick‐provisioning during breeding season. Spatial segregation is a common avoidance strategy among and within species from neighboring breeding colonies. We determined whether the foraging behaviors of incubating lesser black‐backed gulls (Larus fuscus) differed between six colonies varying in size and distance to mainland, and whether any differences could be related to the foraging habitats visited. Seventy‐nine incubating individuals from six study colonies along the German North Sea coast were equipped with GPS data loggers in multiple years. Dietary information was gained by sampling food pellets, and blood samples were taken for stable isotope analyses. Foraging patterns clearly differed among and within colonies. Foraging range increased with increasing colony size and decreased with increasing colony distance from the mainland, although the latter might be due to the inclusion of the only offshore colony. Gulls from larger colonies with consequently greater density‐dependent competition were more likely to forage at land instead of at sea. The diets of the gulls from the colonies furthest from each other differed, while the diets from the other colonies overlapped with each other. The spatial segregation and dietary similarities suggest that lesser black‐backed gulls foraged at different sites and utilized two main habitat types, although these were similar across foraging areas for all colonies except the single offshore island. The avoidance of intraspecific competition results in colony‐specific foraging patterns, potentially causing more intensive utilization of terrestrial foraging sites, which may offer more predictable and easily available foraging compared with the marine environment.     

Morphological and niche divergence of pinyon pines

The environmental variables that define a species ecological niche should be associated with the evolutionary patterns present in the adaptations that resulted from living in these conditions. Thus, when comparing across species, we can expect to find an association between phylogenetically independent phenotypic characters and ecological niche evolution. Few studies have evaluated how organismal phenotypes might mirror patterns of niche evolution if these phenotypes reflect adaptations. Doing so could contribute on the understanding of the origin and maintenance of phenotypic diversity observed in nature. Here, we show the pattern of niche evolution of the pinyon pine lineage (Pinus subsection Cembroides); then, we suggest morphological adaptations possibly related to niche divergence, and finally, we test for correlation between ecological niche and morphology. We demonstrate that niche divergence is the general pattern within the clade and that it is positively correlated with adaptation.     

Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between‐year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.     

Ecological genetics of Italian peach‐potato aphid (Myzus persicae) populations in relation to geography,dispersal and insecticide resistance as studied using microsatellite and resistance markers

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