Linear discrete models with different time scales

Aggregation of variables allows to approximate a large scale dynamical system (the micro-system) involving many variables into a reduced system (the macro-system) described by a few number of global variables. Approximate aggregation can be performed when different time scales are involved in the dynamics of the micro-system. Perturbation methods enable to approximate the large micro-system by a macro-system going on at a slow time scale. Aggregation has been performed for systems of ordinary differential equations in which time is a continuous variable. In this contribution, we extend aggregation methods to time-discrete models of population dynamics. Time discrete micro-models with two time scales are presented. We use perturbation methods to obtain a slow macro-model. The asymptotic behaviours of the micro and macro-systems are characterized by the main eigenvalues and the associated eigenvectors. We compare the asymptotic behaviours of both systems which are shown to be similar to a certain order.     

The effect of abiotic factors on foraging and oviposition success of the aphid parasitoid,Aphidius rosae

Searching patterns and oviposition success of the aphid parasitoid Aphidius rosae were analysed in different abiotic conditions (simulated wind, simulated drizzling rain, simulated shower, high temperature, low humidity, standard conditions) in the laboratory. Residence times, time allocation and oviposition success did not differ significantly between females foraging on rose shoots during periods with high temperature (>33°C) and low humidity (35%–40% relative humidity) and females searching under standard laboratory conditions (20°C, 65%–70% relative humidity, no wind). A wind speed of 2 m/s reduced the oviposition numbers significantly, and females spent much more time resting than searching for hosts. Females did not leave a shoot during wind, but departed quickly after wind had ceased. Simulated drizzling rain or simulated showers had the strongest effects on A. rosae foraging. Both types of rain prevented all foraging activities including departure from the shoot, and females laid no eggs during rain. After rain had stopped, females were mainly engaged with cleaning themselves and laid relatively few eggs compared to standard conditions. The impact of unfavourable abiotic environmental factors like wind or rain may help to explain why many parasitoids lay only a small proportion of their available eggs when foraging in the field.     

Measuring the effect of an abiotic stress on competition

Using recently developed solution culture techniques, the effect of a non-resource abiotic stress, nickel toxicity, was tested on intraspecific nutrient competition among wheat. The choice of an appropriate statistical model was of paramount importance in interpreting these effects. We argue that a multiplicative model is more appropriate for experiments on interactions of competition and abiotic stress. By such an analysis, nickel had no relative effect on the ability of competition to reduce plant size in two experiments, and caused a small reduction in competition in another. These results are contrary to other reports of the effect of a non-resource abiotic stress on competition and appear to be due to an increased demand for nutrients in the presence of toxic levels of nickel. The effects of an abiotic stress on competition may thus be specitic to the stress and not generalized across all abiotic stresses.     

Cranial variables as predictors of hominine body mass

Body mass is a key variable in investigating the evolutionary biology of the hominines (Australopithecus, Paranthropus, and Homo). It is not only closely related to life-history parameters but also provides a necessary baseline for studies of encephalization or megadonty. Body mass estimates are normally based on the postcranial skeleton. However, the majority of hominid fossils are cranio-dental remains that are unassociated with postcranial material. Only rarely can postcranial material be linked with craniodentally defined hominid taxa. This study responds to this problem by evaluating body mass estimates based on 15 cranial variables to determine whether they compare in reliability with estimates determined from postcranial variables. Results establish that some cranial variables, and particularly orbital area, orbital height, and biporionic breadth, are nearly as good mass predictors for hominoids as are some of the best postcranial predictors. For the hominines in particular, orbital height is the cranial variable which produces body mass estimates that are most in line with postcranially generated estimates. Both orbital area and biporionic breadth scale differently in the hominines than they do in the other hominoids. This difference in scaling results in unusually large estimates of body mass based on these variables for the larger-sized hominines, although the three cranial variables produce equivalent predicted masses for the smaller-bodied hominines. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Life history variables of wild troops of formosan macaques (Macaca cyclopis) in Kenting,Taiwan

A study on population dynamics of wild Formosan macaques (Macaca cyclopis) in Kenting, southern Taiwan, was conducted from March 1985 to August 1990. At first, only one monkey troop was studied. It fissioned in 1987 and both of the daughter troops have been observed since then. Total number of animals increased from 10 to 29 over the years, but the sizes of individual troops have never been more than 20. Seasonality in breeding has been detected: copulations were concentrated in the period from November to January and 75% of all the 28 births occurred between April and June. Time of birth by parous females without offspring from the preceding year was earlier than that of lactating females. Young females gave their first births at 4 or 5 years of age. Total birth rate over the study period was 0.8 infant per female per year. Hunting was the main cause of death while natural mortality rate was low for the animals. There was only one adult male in each troop for most of the time. Troop males in the two daughter troops have been replaced two or three times in the three years by some solitary males that moved around in the area. The reproductive parameters of Formosan macaques in Kenting were found to be more similar to that of rhesus monkeys than to Japanese macaques. And a case of higher reproductive success in a high-ranking matriline was reported.     

Seasonal abundance of soil-surface arthropods in relation to some meteorological and edaphic variables of the grassland and tree-planted areas in a tropical semi-arid savanna

Seasonality of relative population abundance in different groups of soil-surface arthropods was investigated monthly by pit-fall traps during a 2-year period in the grassland and tree-planted areas of a tropical semi-arid savanna at Warangal (south India). Densities of most groups were lowest during summer and highest during the rainy season. They were less abundant during winter. Arthropods were recorded in higher numbers in tree-planted compared to grassland areas. Certain arthropods that were found only during part of the year were recorded for a longer period in the tree-planted area. Formicidae,Monomorium indicum Forel,Crematogaster sp. andPachycondyla? tesserinoda (Emery), and Coleoptera,Pachycera sp. reached maximum densities in the rainy season and minimum numbers during winter and summer in the grassland area. However, these species had lower densities during the rainy season and reached maximum densities during winter and summer in the tree-planted area. The seasonal abundance of arthropods showed significant linear correlations with different abiotic environmental variables such as rainfall, soil moisture, organic matter, soil and air temperatures, soil pH, relative humidity at the soil surface, and potassium and phosphorus of surface soil. Soil moisture and rainfall were generally the strongest correlates with densities, particularly in the grassland area.     

An experimental study of factors affecting the distribution of yellow perch and central mudminnows along a species richness gradient

Synopsis Effects of environmental factors on the distribution and abundance of yellow perch and central mudminnows in northern Wisconsin were examined by holding populations of these fishes within single-species enclosures in a series of three small forest lakes having a species-richness gradient of one to four species. These enclosures allowed each species to experience environmental conditions within each lake without directly interacting with each other. In the four-species lake, two other sets of enclosures addressed the effects of intra- and interspecific competition. Changes in total biomass of enclosure stocks (from growth and mortality) indicated that in the absence of other species, perch did best in the lake containing the richest fish assemblage, intermediate in the two-species lake, and worst in the mudminnow-only lake. Mudminnow stocks similarly performed significantly better in the four-species lake than the mudminnow-only lake. These results suggest that the lakes' environmental conditions contribute to the patterns of presence and abundance of perch, but that interspecific interactions override a similar contribution for the mudminnow, which is regarded as a fugitive species. Perch performances were also sensitive to fish densities within enclosures, declining significantly when stocks were doubled, either by adding more perch or equal numbers of mudminnows.     

Influence of physical and chemical factors on the larval abundance of Neurothemis tullia (Drury) (Odonata:Libellulidae) in a rain fed rice field

The influence of physical and chemical factors such as pH, temperature, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and chlorophyll a on larval populations of Neurothemis tullia (Drury) (Odonata:Libellulidae) were studied in a rain-fed rice field by collecting larvae and water samples weekly over two seasons of rice planting. Water availability was the main factor determining the presence or absence of larvae in the rice field. The larvae were most abundant during extended periods of continuously plentiful water supply except during flooding. Rapid larval population build-ups were observed soon after chemical applications or spells of dry periods reflecting continual oviposition and hatching of eggs. Pesticides and fertilizer applications resulted in low population densities due to direct or indirect mortality. A stepwise multiple regression showed that within its range, none of the physical and chemical factors measured in this study affected the abundance of N. tullia. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Bayesian Semiparametric Models for Survival Data with a Cure Fraction

We propose methods for Bayesian inference for a new class of semiparametric survival models with a cure fraction. Specifically, we propose a semiparametric cure rate model with a smoothing parameter that controls the degree of parametricity in the right tail of the survival distribution. We show that such a parameter is crucial for these kinds of models and can have an impact on the posterior estimates. Several novel properties of the proposed model are derived. In addition, we propose a class of improper noninformative priors based on this model and examine the properties of the implied posterior. Also, a class of informative priors based on historical data is proposed and its theoretical properties are investigated. A case study involving a melanoma clinical trial is discussed in detail to demonstrate the proposed methodology.     

Factors affecting numbers of Culicoides in truck traps in coastal Queensland

Abstract .Truck trap collections of Ceratopogonidae were made over a period of 27 months (November 1973–February 1976) at Tingalpa Creek, in southeast Queensland, Australia. Six collections were made on each of 95 days, giving 570 observations and a total of 29 378 Culicoides . Two collections were made before, one at, and three after sunset. Separate analyses were made of the catches of thirteen entities: male and female C. austropalpalis , C. brevitarsis , C. marksi , C. marmoratus and C. victoriae , female C. henryi and C. longior , and total C. bundyensis .
Catches were dominated by C. brevitarsis (35.2%) and C. marmoratus (32.3%) and, with C. victoriae , were taken on almost every collecting day over all seasons. Sex ratios (M:F) varied from 0:100 for C. longior to 130:100 for C. marksi . Collections of all entities, except female C. henryi , were greatest (50–70% of the daily catch) at sunset. In winter there was substantial activity in the hour before sunset. Time of day was the most important variable, accounting for 15–45% of the observed variation. Between-day differences were significant for all except C. austropalpalis, C. victoriae and male C. marksi . Culicoides brevitarsis, C. bundyensis and C. longior had highly significant annual cycles, C. victoriae and female C. austropalpalis had significant lunar cycles, and C. longior had a significant tidal cycle. Logarithms of catches of female C. austropalpalis, C. brevitarsis, C. henryi, C. marmoratus, and female and male C. victoriae were inversely related to linear wind speed. Log catches of female C. austropalpalis, C. brevitarsis, C. marmoratus and C. victoriae , and male C. marksi and C. victoriae were positively related to temperature (quadratic).