Nearest Neighbor Classification Rule for Mixtures of Discrete and Continuous Random Variables

In this paper very simple nonparametric classification rule for mixtures of discrete and continuous random variables is described. It is based on the method of nearest neighbor proposed by Cover and Hart (1967). The bounds on the limit of the nearest neighbor rule risks are given. Both lower and upper bound depend on the Bayes risk and the loss function. Finally the method is compared with other existing methods on some practical data set.     

Decision analysis approach to risk/benefit evaluation in the ethical review of controlled human infection studies

Risks and benefit evaluation for controlled human infection studies, where healthy volunteers are deliberately exposed to infectious agents to evaluate vaccine efficacy, should be explicit, systematic, thorough, and non-arbitrary. Decision analysis promotes these qualities using four steps: (1) determining explicit criteria and measures for evaluation, (2) identifying alternatives to the study, (3) defining the models used to estimate the measures for each alternative, and (4) running the models to produce the estimates and compare the alternatives. In this paper, we describe how decision analysis might be applied by funders and regulators, as well as by others contemplating the use of novel controlled human infection studies for vaccine development and evaluation.     

To be or not to be faithful: flexible fidelity to foraging trails in the leaf‐cutting ant Acromyrmex lobicornis

1. Ants using trails to forage have to select between two alternative routes at bifurcations, using two, potentially conflicting, sources of information to make their decision: individual experience to return to a previous successful foraging site (i.e. fidelity) and ant traffic. In the field, we investigated which of these two types of information individuals of the leaf‐cutting ant Acromyrmex lobicornis Emery use to decide which foraging route to take. 2. We measured the proportion of foraging ants returning to each trail of bifurcations the following day, and for 4–7 consecutive days. We then experimentally increased ant traffic on one trail of the bifurcation by adding additional food sources to examine the effect of increased ant traffic on the decision that ants make. 3. Binomial tests showed that for 62% of the trails, ant fidelity was relatively more important than ant traffic in deciding which bifurcation to follow, suggesting the importance of previous experience. 4. When information conflict was generated by experimentally increasing ant traffic along the trail with less foraging activity, most ants relied on ant traffic to decide. However, in 33% of these bifurcations, ants were still faithful to their trail. Thus, there is some degree of flexibility in the decisions that A. lobicornis make to access food resources. 5. This flexible fidelity results in individual variation in the response of workers to different levels of ant traffic, and allows the colony to simultaneously exploit both established and recently discovered food patches, aiding efficient food gathering.     

区域农业综合生产力的AHP-Fuzzy综合评判

根据系统分析原理,在确定区域农业综合生产力系统的层次结构基础上,用层次分析法确定各因素的权重,用模糊多级综合评判法对各区域综合生产力进行综合的评价．具有一定的科学性和实用价格．     

基于多目标灰色局势决策的三峡库区防护林类型空间优化配置

基于2007年Landsat TM遥感影像和影响防护林的主导环境因子,对三峡库区的森林立地进行分类,并通过选取水源涵养量、生物量和林分生产力3个指标,利用多目标灰色局势决策模型对库区现有的针叶林、阔叶林、针阔混交林和灌木林4种防护林类型进行空间优化配置.结果表明： 2007年,三峡库区森林立地可划分为40种类型;空间配置优化后,研究区针叶林、阔叶林、针阔混交林和灌木林的面积比例分别为32.55%、29.43%、34.95%和3.07%.与优化前相比,优化后针叶林和灌木林的面积比例分别减少了8.79%和28.55%,阔叶林和针阔混交林分别增加了10.23%和27.11%.通过防护林类型的空间优化,三峡库区整体的水源涵养能力、生物量和林分生产力分别增加14.09×10⁸ m³、0.35×10⁸ t和1.08×10⁶ t.     

Site fidelity in predictable and unpredictable habitats

Summary Site fidelity, the tendency to return to a previously occupied location, has been observed in numerous species belonging to at least three phyla. In this paper I develop a general model using dynamic programming to investigate conditions under which fidelity to a previously occupied territory will be advantageous. The results predict that site fidelity should be inversely related to heterogeneity in territory quality and the animal's lifespan and positively related to the cost of changing territories, age and probability of mortality in the habitat. The predictability of reproductive outcome (defined as the probability that next period's outcome will be the same as this period's outcome) also affects site fidelity. In predictable habitats, changing territories may be favoured after a bad previous outcome. In contrast, settlement should be independent of the previous outcome in unpredictable habitats. Individuals should also be site-faithful in unpredictable habitats, as long as the mean territory quality is equal among available territories. I also investigate the success of two potential decision rules (always stay and win-stay: lose-switch) relative to the optimal settlement strategy. The results show that these rules may perform as well as the optimal strategy under certain conditions. The always stay strategy does well in unpredictable habitats, when the mean quality within a territory is equal among territories. In contrast, the win-stay: lose-switch strategy performs best in predictable habitats.