Community persistence in Broadstone Stream (U.K.) over three decades

1. Few detailed long-term data sets exist for fresh waters with which to examine large-scale temporal changes in community composition. Consequently, insight into community persistence has been restricted to a few, contingent case studies. We collated and analysed data for the aquatic macroinvertebrate community of Broadstone Stream in south-east England, spanning three decades. The pH of this naturally acid stream has risen progressively since the 1970s, and we sought to examine the potential effects of this environmental change upon the community.
2. Persistence within Broadstone was high when compared with other systems that have been analysed using similar methods. The stream was characterised by a `core' community of eight taxa that were always present, and contributed 75–97% of total invertebrate abundance, with a trailing limb of progressively rarer and more acid-sensitive taxa. There was little species turnover, although the time-series exceeded 20 generations for most species.
3. Despite this high persistence, a long-term response to rising pH was detected: species indicating profound acidity (identified a priori from independent studies) have declined since the 1970s, whereas indicators of moderate acidity increased. The structure of the community food web has also changed since the 1970s, with increased predator diversity and abundance, and a lengthening of food chains following the invasion of a new top predator.
4. These changes in the community appeared to be driven by an interaction between pH and climate. The unusually hot, dry summers characteristic of the 1990s may have raised pH during the more sensitive (i.e. early) stages of the life-cycle, and thus provided a window of opportunity for less acid-tolerant taxa to colonise and become established. Changes in pH appeared to set the boundaries of the available local species pool, within which biotic interactions ultimately shaped the community.     

Fish population structuring in the North Sea: understanding processes and mechanisms from studies of the movements of adults

Few fish species form single, panmictic populations throughout their geographic range, most form subpopulations or 'stocks' with differing levels of interconnectivity. Different patterns of interconnectivity between subpopulations will give rise to different responses to exploitation and management, but they will also have different capacities to generate the genetic and phenotypic differences often used to discriminate between stocks. Consequently, knowledge of ontogenetic and seasonal patterns in the distribution, movement and behaviour of individuals is crucial to identifying population substructure. This paper considers the evidence gathered about movements and behaviour of adult fishes from mark-recapture and electronic tagging studies for a number of fish species in the North Sea and elsewhere in U.K. waters in an attempt to understand population structure and the processes that may give rise to it.     

Epilogue — Demography and anthropology

As a conclusion, this paper reviews briefly the content of the volume. The wealth of demographic data has not been adequately exploited in anthropology; this is why this publication is valuable in showing attempts to apply demographic data in a variety of anthropological problems. This symposium has explored many interesting points which we recall here. Yet it has also opened up a whole range of further questions on the material presented as well as in this broad field. Several directions of research could be developed, for instance, testing among human populations, over long periods, the ecological thoughts of ecosystems evolving as a cascade of instabilities, rather than a succession of equilibrium states. Let us also recall the pervasive nature of demographic facts in topics such as the energy cycle or the genetic structure and evolution of human populations.     

Pollen-based biome reconstruction for southern Europe and Africa 18,000 yr bp

Pollen data from 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp were compiled in order to reconstruct biome distributions at the last glacial maximum in southern Europe and Africa. Biome reconstructions were made using the objective biomization method applied to pollen counts using a complete list of dryland taxa wherever possible. Consistent and major differences from present‐day biomes are shown. Forest and xerophytic woods/scrub were replaced by steppe, both in the Mediterranean region and in southern Africa, except in south‐western Cape Province where fynbos (xerophytic scrub) persisted. Sites in the tropical highlands, characterized today by evergreen forest, were dominated by steppe and/or xerophytic vegetation (cf. today’s Ericaceous belt and Afroalpine grassland) at the last glacial maximum. Available data from the tropical lowlands are sparse but suggest that the modern tropical rain forest was largely replaced by tropical seasonal forest while the modern seasonal or dry forests were encroached on by savanna or steppe. Montane forest elements descended to lower elevations than today.     

On Testing Equality of Means of Correlated Variates with Incomplete Data

A statistic is proposed for testing the hypothesis of equality of the means of a bivariate normal distribution with unknown common variance and correlation coefficient when observations are missing on one of the variates. Expressions for the second and fourth central moments of the statistic are obtained. These moments are used to approximate the distribution of the statistic by a Student's t distribution under the null hypothesis. The powers of the test are computed and compared with those of the conventional paired t and the other known statistics.     

On Comparing Correlated Means in the Presence of Incomplete Data

Two statistics are proposed for testing the hypothesis of equality of the means of a bivariate normal distribution with unknown common variance and correlation coefficient when observations are missing on both variates. One of the statistics reduces to the one proposed by Bhoj (1978, 1984) when the unpaired observations on the variates are equal. The distributions of the statistics are approximated by well known distributions under the null hypothesis. The empirical powers of the tests are computed and compared with those of some known statistics. The comparison supports the use of one of the statistics proposed in this paper.     

Cervical screening in Luxembourg: 1990–1999

For quality assurance purposes, the results of the 1990's obtained by the National Cervical Cancer Screening Programme (NCCSP) launched in 1962 were reviewed. The positive cytodiagnosis, the histologically verified in situ and invasive cervical cancers and the mortality rates were reported.     

Describing Ordinal Odds Ratios for Stratified r × c Tables

For an r × ctable with ordinal responses, odds ratios are commonly used to describe the relationship between the row and column variables. This article shows two types of ordinal odds ratios where local‐global odds ratios are used to compare several groups on a c‐category ordinal response and a global odds ratio is used to measure the global association between a pair of ordinal responses. When there is a stratification factor, we consider Mantel‐Haenszel (MH) type estimators of these odds ratios to summarize the association from several strata. Like the ordinary MH estimator of the common odds ratio for several 2 × 2 contingency tables, the estimators are used when the association is not expected to vary drastically among the strata. Also, the estimators are consistent under the ordinary asymptotic framework in which the number of strata is fixed and also under sparse asymptotics in which the number of strata grows with the sample size. Compared to the maximum likelihood estimators, simulations find that the MH type estimators perform better especially when each stratum has few observations. This article provides variances and covariances formulae for the local‐global odds ratios estimators and applies the bootstrap method to obtain a standard error for the global odds ratio estimator. At the end, we discuss possible ways of testing the homogeneity assumption.