艺术保护自然 冈仁波齐圣地手绘图的诞生

为便于本地社区了解当地生态系统的复杂性,以便在得益于自然环境的同时更好地珍视、利用和保护,国际山地综合发展中心（ICIMOD）联合其他环保组织提出了“神山圣湖山水自然保护倡议”（KSLCI）,制作了圣地区域的手绘宣传图册,其目的在于,协助山地乡村社区更好地了解本地所面临的变化和机遇。手册以生活于冈仁波齐（Kailash）圣地的本地社区为服务对象,也可为范围更大的山地社区提供助益。     

Programmatic Cost Evaluation of Nontargeted Opt-Out Rapid HIV Screening in the Emergency Department

Background

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends nontargeted opt-out HIV screening in healthcare settings. Cost effectiveness is critical when considering potential screening methods. Our goal was to compare programmatic costs of nontargeted opt-out rapid HIV screening with physician-directed diagnostic rapid HIV testing in an urban emergency department (ED) as part of the Denver ED HIV Opt-Out Trial.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study nested in a larger quasi-experiment. Over 16 months, nontargeted rapid HIV screening (intervention) and diagnostic rapid HIV testing (control) were alternated in 4-month time blocks. During the intervention phase, patients were offered HIV testing using an opt-out approach during registration; during the control phase, physicians used a diagnostic approach to offer HIV testing to patients. Each method was fully integrated into ED operations. Direct program costs were determined using the perspective of the ED. Time-motion methodology was used to estimate personnel activity costs. Costs per patient newly-diagnosed with HIV infection by intervention phase, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated.

Results

During the intervention phase, 28,043 eligible patients were included, 6,933 (25%) completed testing, and 15 (0.2%, 95% CI: 0.1%–0.4%) were newly-diagnosed with HIV infection. During the control phase, 29,925 eligible patients were included, 243 (0.8%) completed testing, and 4 (1.7%, 95% CI: 0.4%–4.2%) were newly-diagnosed with HIV infection. Total annualized costs for nontargeted screening were $148,997, whereas total annualized costs for diagnostic HIV testing were $31,355. The average costs per HIV diagnosis were $9,932 and $7,839, respectively. Nontargeted HIV screening identified 11 more HIV infections at an incremental cost of $10,693 per additional infection.

Conclusions

Compared to diagnostic testing, nontargeted HIV screening was more costly but identified more HIV infections. More effective and less costly testing strategies may be required to improve the identification of patients with undiagnosed HIV infection in the ED.     

Recovery of Renal Function among ESRD Patients in the US Medicare Program

Background

Patients started on long term hemodialysis have typically had low rates of reported renal recovery with recent estimates ranging from 0.9–2.4% while higher rates of recovery have been reported in cohorts with higher percentages of patients with acute renal failure requiring dialysis.

Study Design

Our analysis followed approximately 194,000 patients who were initiated on hemodialysis during a 2-year period (2008 & 2009) with CMS-2728 forms submitted to CMS by dialysis facilities, cross-referenced with patient record updates through the end of 2010, and tracked through December 2010 in the CMS SIMS registry.

Results

We report a sustained renal recovery (i.e no return to ESRD during the available follow up period) rate among Medicare ESRD patients of > 5% - much higher than previously reported. Recovery occurred primarily in the first 2 months post incident dialysis, and was more likely in cases with renal failure secondary to etiologies associated with acute kidney injury. Patients experiencing sustained recovery were markedly less likely than true long-term ESRD patients to have permanent vascular accesses in place at incident hemodialysis, while non-White patients, and patients with any prior nephrology care appeared to have significantly lower rates of renal recovery. We also found widespread geographic variation in the rates of renal recovery across the United States.

Conclusions

Renal recovery rates in the US Medicare ESRD program are higher than previously reported and appear to have significant geographic variation. Patients with diagnoses associated with acute kidney injury who are initiated on long-term hemodialysis have significantly higher rates of renal recovery than the general ESRD population and lower rates of permanent access placement.     

Analysis of Serum Inflammatory Mediators Identifies Unique Dynamic Networks Associated with Death and Spontaneous Survival in Pediatric Acute Liver Failure

Background

Tools to predict death or spontaneous survival are necessary to inform liver transplantation (LTx) decisions in pediatric acute liver failure (PALF), but such tools are not available. Recent data suggest that immune/inflammatory dysregulation occurs in the setting of acute liver failure. We hypothesized that specific, dynamic, and measurable patterns of immune/inflammatory dysregulation will correlate with outcomes in PALF.

Methods

We assayed 26 inflammatory mediators on stored serum samples obtained from a convenience sample of 49 children in the PALF study group (PALFSG) collected within 7 days after enrollment. Outcomes were assessed within 21 days of enrollment consisting of spontaneous survivors, non-survivors, and LTx recipients. Data were subjected to statistical analysis, patient-specific Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) inference.

Findings

Raw inflammatory mediator levels assessed over time did not distinguish among PALF outcomes. However, DBN analysis did reveal distinct interferon-gamma-related networks that distinguished spontaneous survivors from those who died. The network identified in LTx patients pre-transplant was more like that seen in spontaneous survivors than in those who died, a finding supported by PCA.

Interpretation

The application of DBN analysis of inflammatory mediators in this small patient sample appears to differentiate survivors from non-survivors in PALF. Patterns associated with LTx pre-transplant were more like those seen in spontaneous survivors than in those who died. DBN-based analyses might lead to a better prediction of outcome in PALF, and could also have more general utility in other complex diseases with an inflammatory etiology.     

A Novel Approach for Prediction of Vitamin D Status Using Support Vector Regression

Background

Epidemiological evidence suggests that vitamin D deficiency is linked to various chronic diseases. However direct measurement of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration, the accepted biomarker of vitamin D status, may not be feasible in large epidemiological studies. An alternative approach is to estimate vitamin D status using a predictive model based on parameters derived from questionnaire data. In previous studies, models developed using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) have explained a limited proportion of the variance and predicted values have correlated only modestly with measured values. Here, a new modelling approach, nonlinear radial basis function support vector regression (RBF SVR), was used in prediction of serum 25(OH)D concentration. Predicted scores were compared with those from a MLR model.

Methods

Determinants of serum 25(OH)D in Caucasian adults (n = 494) that had been previously identified were modelled using MLR and RBF SVR to develop a 25(OH)D prediction score and then validated in an independent dataset. The correlation between actual and predicted serum 25(OH)D concentrations was analysed with a Pearson correlation coefficient.

Results

Better correlation was observed between predicted scores and measured 25(OH)D concentrations using the RBF SVR model in comparison with MLR (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.74 for RBF SVR; 0.51 for MLR). The RBF SVR model was more accurately able to identify individuals with lower 25(OH)D levels (<75 nmol/L).

Conclusion

Using identical determinants, the RBF SVR model provided improved prediction of serum 25(OH)D concentrations and vitamin D deficiency compared with a MLR model, in this dataset.     

Using Manifold Learning for Atlas Selection in Multi-Atlas Segmentation

Multi-atlas segmentation has been widely used to segment various anatomical structures. The success of this technique partly relies on the selection of atlases that are best mapped to a new target image after registration. Recently, manifold learning has been proposed as a method for atlas selection. Each manifold learning technique seeks to optimize a unique objective function. Therefore, different techniques produce different embeddings even when applied to the same data set. Previous studies used a single technique in their method and gave no reason for the choice of the manifold learning technique employed nor the theoretical grounds for the choice of the manifold parameters. In this study, we compare side-by-side the results given by 3 manifold learning techniques (Isomap, Laplacian Eigenmaps and Locally Linear Embedding) on the same data set. We assess the ability of those 3 different techniques to select the best atlases to combine in the framework of multi-atlas segmentation. First, a leave-one-out experiment is used to optimize our method on a set of 110 manually segmented atlases of hippocampi and find the manifold learning technique and associated manifold parameters that give the best segmentation accuracy. Then, the optimal parameters are used to automatically segment 30 subjects from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). For our dataset, the selection of atlases with Locally Linear Embedding gives the best results. Our findings show that selection of atlases with manifold learning leads to segmentation accuracy close to or significantly higher than the state-of-the-art method and that accuracy can be increased by fine tuning the manifold learning process.     

Total Serum IgE in a Population-Based Study of Asian Children in Taiwan: Reference Value and Significance in the Diagnosis of Allergy

Background

Total serum immunoglobulin (IgE) test is usually performed to aid in the diagnosis of allergic diseases, but its reference values may vary among people of different ethnic backgrounds.

Objectives

To establish reference values of total IgE in Asian children and to assess their significance in the diagnosis of atopy and allergic diseases.

Study design

1321 Asian children aged 5-18 years in the Prediction of Allergies in Taiwanese CHildren (PATCH) study, a population-based cohort, were evaluated for total and specific IgE by ImmunoCAP and Phadiatop Infant, respectively.

Results

Male, atopy, allergic diseases, recent symptoms of upper respiratory infection, and lower FEV₁/FVC, were associated with higher total IgE levels in univariate analyses. Multivariate analysis revealed that atopy was the single most important determinant explaining 66.1% of the variability of total IgE levels in this population. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve of total IgE for diagnosing atopy, asthma, rhinitis, and eczema were 0.92, 0.72, 0.70, and 0.70, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of total IgE at the optimal cutoff of 77.7 kU/L on the ROC curve for diagnosing atopy were 82.3%, 87.1%, 89.5%, and 78.6%, respectively. The corresponding values using the upper 95% CI of total IgE (164.3 kU/L) in non-atopic children were 61.2%, 95.0%, 94.3%, and 64.6%, respectively; whereas a customary cutoff (100 kU/L) provided accuracy between that of the aforementioned two cutoffs. Total IgE at the cutoff of 77.7 kU/L provided modest sensitivity and specificity (49.0%-78.3%) for diagnosing allergic diseases, but had high negative predictive values (84.2%-97.9%).

Conclusions

Total serum IgE discriminates Asian children with and without atopy independent of allergic symptoms, with an optimal cutoff of 77.7 kU/L. The study confirms the insufficient diagnostic accuracy of total IgE alone to detect allergic diseases, but low total IgE levels may help exclude allergic diseases.     

Association of TERC and OBFC1 Haplotypes with Mean Leukocyte Telomere Length and Risk for Coronary Heart Disease

Objective

To replicate the associations of leukocyte telomere length (LTL) with variants at four loci and to investigate their associations with coronary heart disease (CHD) and type II diabetes (T2D), in order to examine possible causal effects of telomere maintenance machinery on disease aetiology.

Methods

Four SNPs at three loci BICD1 (rs2630578 GγC), 18q12.2 (rs2162440 GγT), and OBFC1 (rs10786775 CγG, rs11591710 AγC) were genotyped in four studies comprised of 2353 subjects out of which 1148 had CHD and 566 T2D. Three SNPs (rs12696304 CγG, rs10936601G>T and rs16847897 GγC) at the TERC locus were genotyped in these four studies, in addition to an offspring study of 765 healthy students. For all samples, LTL had been measured using a real-time PCR-based method.

Results

Only one SNP was associated with a significant effect on LTL, with the minor allele G of OBFC1 rs10786775 SNP being associated with longer LTL (β=0.029, P=0.04). No SNPs were significantly associated with CHD or T2D. For OBFC1 the haplotype carrying both rare alleles (rs10786775G and rs11591710C, haplotype frequency 0.089) was associated with lower CHD prevalence (OR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.61–0.97; P= 0.03). The TERC haplotype GTC (rs12696304G, rs10936601T and rs16847897C, haplotype frequency 0.210) was associated with lower risk for both CHD (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.75-0.99; P=0.04) and T2D (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.61–0.91; P= 0.004), with no effect on LTL. Only the last association remained after adjusting for multiple testing.

Conclusion

Of reported associations, only that between the OBFC1 rs10786775 SNP and LTL was confirmed, although our study has a limited power to detect modest effects. A 2-SNP OBFC1 haplotype was associated with higher risk of CHD, and a 3-SNP TERC haplotype was associated with both higher risk of CHD and T2D. Further work is required to confirm these results and explore the mechanisms of these effects.     

Microarray Analysis of Microbiota of Gingival Lesions in Noma Patients

Noma (cancrum oris) is a gangrenous disease of unknown etiology affecting the maxillo-facial region of young children in extremely limited resource countries. In an attempt to better understand the microbiological events occurring during this disease, we used phylogenetic and low-density microarrays targeting the 16S rRNA gene to characterize the gingival flora of acute noma and acute necrotizing gingivitis (ANG) lesions, and compared them to healthy control subjects of the same geographical and social background. Our observations raise doubts about Fusobacterium necrophorum, a previously suspected causative agent of noma, as this species was not associated with noma lesions. Various oral pathogens were more abundant in noma lesions, notably Atopobium spp., Prevotella intermedia, Peptostreptococcus spp., Streptococcus pyogenes and Streptococcus anginosus. On the other hand, pathogens associated with periodontal diseases such as Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Capnocytophaga spp., Porphyromonas spp. and Fusobacteriales were more abundant in healthy controls. Importantly, the overall loss of bacterial diversity observed in noma samples as well as its homology to that of ANG microbiota supports the hypothesis that ANG might be the immediate step preceding noma.