Comparing the prognostic accuracy for all-cause mortality of frailty instruments: a multicentre 1-year follow-up in hospitalized older patients

Background

Frailty is a dynamic age-related condition of increased vulnerability characterized by declines across multiple physiologic systems and associated with an increased risk of death. We compared the predictive accuracy for one-month and one-year all-cause mortality of four frailty instruments in a large population of hospitalized older patients in a prospective multicentre cohort study.

Methods and Findings

On 2033 hospitalized patients aged ≥65 years from twenty Italian geriatric units, we calculated the frailty indexes derived from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (FI-SOF), based on the cumulative deficits model (FI-CD), based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (FI-CGA), and the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI). The overall mortality rates were 8.6% after one-month and 24.9% after one-year follow-up. All frailty instruments were significantly associated with one-month and one-year all-cause mortality. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves estimated from age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression models, accounting for clustering due to centre effect, showed that the MPI had a significant higher discriminatory accuracy than FI-SOF, FI-CD, and FI-CGA after one month (areas under the ROC curves: FI-SOF = 0.685 vs. FI-CD = 0.738 vs. FI-CGA = 0.724 vs. MPI = 0.765, p<0.0001) and one year of follow-up (areas under the ROC curves: FI-SOF = 0.694 vs. FI-CD = 0.729 vs. FI-CGA = 0.727 vs. MPI = 0.750, p<0.0001). The MPI showed a significant higher discriminatory power for predicting one-year mortality also in hospitalized older patients without functional limitations, without cognitive impairment, malnourished, with increased comorbidity, and with a high number of drugs.

Conclusions

All frailty instruments were significantly associated with short- and long-term all-cause mortality, but MPI demonstrated a significant higher predictive power than other frailty instruments in hospitalized older patients.     

Children who acquire HIV infection perinatally are at higher risk of early death than those acquiring infection through breastmilk: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Assumptions about survival of HIV-infected children in Africa without antiretroviral therapy need to be updated to inform ongoing UNAIDS modelling of paediatric HIV epidemics among children. Improved estimates of infant survival by timing of HIV-infection (perinatally or postnatally) are thus needed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A pooled analysis was conducted of individual data of all available intervention cohorts and randomized trials on prevention of HIV mother-to-child transmission in Africa. Studies were right-censored at the time of infant antiretroviral initiation. Overall mortality rate per 1000 child-years of follow-up was calculated by selected maternal and infant characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival curves by child's HIV infection status and timing of HIV infection. Individual data from 12 studies were pooled, with 12,112 children of HIV-infected women. Mortality rates per 1,000 child-years follow-up were 39.3 and 381.6 for HIV-uninfected and infected children respectively. One year after acquisition of HIV infection, an estimated 26% postnatally and 52% perinatally infected children would have died; and 4% uninfected children by age 1 year. Mortality was independently associated with maternal death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.2, 95%CI 1.6-3.0), maternal CD4<350 cells/ml (1.4, 1.1-1.7), postnatal (3.1, 2.1-4.1) or peri-partum HIV-infection (12.4, 10.1-15.3). CONCLUSIONS/RESULTS: These results update previous work and inform future UNAIDS modelling by providing survival estimates for HIV-infected untreated African children by timing of infection. We highlight the urgent need for the prevention of peri-partum and postnatal transmission and timely assessment of HIV infection in infants to initiate antiretroviral care and support for HIV-infected children.     

Improved preservation of residual beta cell function by atorvastatin in patients with recent onset type 1 diabetes and high CRP levels (DIATOR trial)

Background

A recent randomized placebo-controlled trial of the effect of atorvastatin treatment on the progression of newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes suggested a slower decline of residual beta cell function with statin treatment. Aim of this secondary analysis was to identify patient subgroups which differ in the decline of beta cell function during treatment with atorvastatin.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The randomized placebo-controlled Diabetes and Atorvastatin (DIATOR) Trial included 89 patients with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes and detectable islet autoantibodies (mean age 30 years, 40% females), in 12 centers in Germany. Patients received placebo or 80 mg/d atorvastatin for 18 months. As primary outcome stimulated serum C-peptide levels were determined 90 min after a standardized liquid mixed meal. For this secondary analysis patients were stratified by single baseline characteristics which were considered to possibly be modified by atorvastatin treatment. Subgroups defined by age, sex or by baseline metabolic parameters like body mass index (BMI), total serum cholesterol or fasting C-peptide did not differ in C-peptide outcome after atorvastatin treatment. However, the subgroup defined by high (above median) baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations exhibited higher stimulated C-peptide secretion after statin treatment (p = 0.044). Individual baseline CRP levels correlated with C-peptide outcome in the statin group (r² = 0.3079, p<0.004). The subgroup with baseline CRP concentrations above median differed from the corresponding subgroup with lower CRP levels by higher median values of BMI, IL-6, IL-1RA, sICAM-1 and E-selectin.

Conclusions/Significance

Atorvastatin treatment may be effective in slowing the decline of beta cell function in a patient subgroup defined by above median levels of CRP and other inflammation associated immune mediators.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00974740","term_id":"NCT00974740"}}NCT00974740     

Bone marrow-infiltrating human neuroblastoma cells express high levels of calprotectin and HLA-G proteins

Metastases in the bone marrow (BM) are grim prognostic factors in patients with neuroblastoma (NB). In spite of extensive analysis of primary tumor cells from high- and low-risk NB patients, a characterization of freshly isolated BM-infiltrating metastatic NB cells is still lacking. Our aim was to identify proteins specifically expressed by metastatic NB cells, that may be relevant for prognostic and therapeutic purposes. Sixty-six Italian children over 18 months of age, diagnosed with stage 4 NB, were included in the study. Metastatic NB cells were freshly isolated from patients' BM by positive immunomagnetic bead manipulation using anti-GD2 monoclonal antibody. Gene expression profiles were compared with those obtained from archived NB primary tumors from patients with 5 y-follow-up. After validation by RT-qPCR, expression/secretion of the proteins encoded by the up-regulated genes in the BM-infiltrating NB cells was evaluated by flow cytometry and ELISA. Compared to primary tumor cells, BM-infiltrating NB cells down-modulated the expression of CX3CL1, AGT, ATP1A2 mRNAs, whereas they up-regulated several genes commonly expressed by various lineages of BM resident cells. BM-infiltrating NB cells expressed indeed the proteins encoded by the top-ranked genes, S100A8 and A9 (calprotectin), CD177 and CD3, and secreted the CXCL7 chemokine. BM-infiltrating NB cells also expressed CD271 and HLA-G. We have identified proteins specifically expressed by BM-infiltrating NB cells. Among them, calprotectin, a potent inflammatory protein, and HLA-G, endowed with tolerogenic properties facilitating tumor escape from host immune response, may represent novel biomarkers and/or targets for therapeutic intervention in high-risk NB patients.     

Resurgence of HIV Infection among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Switzerland: Mathematical Modelling Study

Background

New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate.

Conclusions/Significance

The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.     

Role of Kras Status in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Receiving First-Line Chemotherapy plus Bevacizumab: A TTD Group Cooperative Study

Background

In the MACRO study, patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) were randomised to first-line treatment with 6 cycles of capecitabine and oxaliplatin (XELOX) plus bevacizumab followed by either single-agent bevacizumab or XELOX plus bevacizumab until disease progression. An additional retrospective analysis was performed to define the prognostic value of tumour KRAS status on progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and response rates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

KRAS data (tumour KRAS status and type of mutation) were collected by questionnaire from participating centres that performed KRAS analyses. These data were then cross-referenced with efficacy data for relevant patients in the MACRO study database. KRAS status was analysed in 394 of the 480 patients (82.1%) in the MACRO study. Wild-type (WT) KRAS tumours were found in 219 patients (56%) and mutant (MT) KRAS in 175 patients (44%). Median PFS was 10.9 months for patients with WT KRAS and 9.4 months for patients with MT KRAS tumours (p = 0.0038; HR: 1.40; 95% CI:1.12–1.77). The difference in OS was also significant: 26.7 months versus 18.0 months for WT versus MT KRAS, respectively (p = 0.0002; HR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.23–1.96). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that KRAS was an independent variable for both PFS and OS. Responses were observed in 126 patients (57.5%) with WT KRAS tumours and 76 patients (43.4%) with MT KRAS tumours (p = 0.0054; OR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.18–2.64).

Conclusions/Significance

This analysis of the MACRO study suggests a prognostic role for tumour KRAS status in patients with mCRC treated with XELOX plus bevacizumab. For both PFS and OS, KRAS status was an independent factor in univariate and multivariate analyses.     

Virulence Profiles of Bacteremic Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase-Producing Escherichia coli: Association with Epidemiological and Clinical Features

There is scarce data about the importance of phylogroups and virulence factors (VF) in bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBLEC). A prospective multicenter Spanish cohort including 191 cases of BSI due to ESBLEC was studied. Phylogroups and 25 VF genes were investigated by PCR. ESBLEC were classified into clusters according to their virulence profiles. The association of phylogropus, VF, and clusters with epidemiological features were studied using multivariate analysis. Overall, 57.6%, 26.7%, and 15.7% of isolates belonged to A/B1, D and B2 phylogroups, respectively. By multivariate analysis (adjusted OR [95% CI]), virulence cluster C2 was independently associated with urinary tract source (5.05 [0.96-25.48]); cluster C4 with sources other than urinary of biliary tract (2.89 [1.05-7.93]), and cluster C5 with BSI in non-predisposed patients (2.80 [0.99-7.93]). Isolates producing CTX-M-9 group ESBLs and from phylogroup D predominated among cluster C2 and C5, while CTX-M-1 group of ESBL and phylogroup B2 predominantes among C4 isolates. These results suggest that host factors and previous antimicrobial use were more important than phylogroup or specific VF in the occurrence of BSI due to ESBLEC. However, some associations between virulence clusters and some specific epidemiological features were found.